John McCain: A victory in 2008

[dw93]

The Running Mates​

Republican Nominee Senator John McCain picks Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota to be his running mate on August 29th, 2008. Other potential running mates were Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, Charlie Chirst of Florida, and Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

That same day, Democratic Nominee Senator Barack Obama picks Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina to his running mate (in this timeline there are no allegations whatsoever that John Edwards had an affair with Rile Hunter, or was the father of her child, nor did he deny interest in being Obama's running mate). Other Potential running mates were Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, and Governor Tim Kane of Virginia.

More to come later. This is my first thread on AH.

 

[Orrin_Knox]

Looking forward to it!

 

[historybuff]

Good start so far, keep going.

 

[bookmark95]

Well I'm glad you got rid of Palin, but there is one thing you seem to be ignoring: the 2008 credit crunch. You can't butterfly that away, and since it happened at the tail end of the Bush years, the Republicans got the blame.

Well one thing you could do is not butterfly away Edward's scandals, but maybe have them be an alternate October Surprise.

 

[AnywhereButOTL]

Well I'm glad you got rid of Palin, but there is one thing you seem to be ignoring: the 2008 credit crunch. You can't butterfly that away, and since it happened at the tail end of the Bush years, the Republicans got the blame.

Well one thing you could do is not butterfly away Edward's scandals, but maybe have them be an alternate October Surprise.

You might be able to delay the credit crunch until just after the election, though I'm not entirely sure how.

 

[Lalli]

You might be able to delay the credit crunch until just after the election, though I'm not entirely sure how.

I am not sure that it is possible delay collapsing enough. There probably should be bit earlier POD but I am not sure how much earlier that should be.

 

[jmc247]

You might be able to delay the credit crunch until just after the election, though I'm not entirely sure how.

Pretty easy actually. The best way is to pop the speculative oil bubble before it gets too big. That slowed the economy enough to get the ball rolling.

 

[dw93]

September

September: Recession Turned Crisis​

After the nominees picked their running mates, polls were dead even, 46-46, as neither candidate got a bounce from their selections. Many political analysts were projecting a very close election.

However, several major economic institutions were collapsing and on September 15, Lehman Brothers collapsed and an economic recession turned into an economic crisis. At a campaign rally in Florida, Senator McCain said that the fall of Lehman brothers has weakened the fundamentals of our economy and went on to say that if elected, the economy would be his top priority and went on to call for tax cuts and re implementing the Glass Steagall Act, and said that Senator Obama did not have the experience to do what was necessary to save the economy. Senator Obama responded the next day by saying that “Senator McCain is right when he said that the fall of Lehman Brothers had weakened the fundamentals of our economy, and if elected I to will make the economy my top priority once in office. However, Senator McCain supported the very reckless policies and flawed philosophy that made this crisis possible” and went on to say that “a man who owns so many houses that he can’t keep track of them is not the person who will bring about the necessary reforms to get the economy moving again.”

When asked who was at fault for the crisis, Americans overwhelmingly blamed the policies of President George W. Bush and the Republican party for the economic crisis and the polls which were even a week earlier now favored Senator Obama by 5 points. Things were starting to look very grim for the McCain/Pawlenty ticket.

 

[M. Adolphe Thiers]

Well I'm glad you got rid of Palin, but there is one thing you seem to be ignoring: the 2008 credit crunch. You can't butterfly that away, and since it happened at the tail end of the Bush years, the Republicans got the blame.

Well one thing you could do is not butterfly away Edward's scandals, but maybe have them be an alternate October Surprise.

Him suspending his campaign was idiotic too, right when his poll numbers started going in the right direction he makes a half-baked empty gesture.

 

[jmc247]

Him suspending his campaign was idiotic too, right when his poll numbers started going in the right direction he makes a half-baked empty gesture.

Between him saying the fundamentals of the economy are strong and then him suspending his campaign because the sky was falling he was done for as he looked like a complete fool in contrast to both the current President and his challenger.

 

[M. Adolphe Thiers]

Between him saying the fundamentals of the economy are strong and then him suspending his campaign because the sky was falling he was done for as he looked like a complete fool in contrast to both the current President and his challenger.

I cringed when he said that. I laughed in disbelief when he suspended his campaign.

Hopefully T-Paw will influence him enough to not make such errors.

 

[David T]

Him suspending his campaign was idiotic too, right when his poll numbers started going in the right direction he makes a half-baked empty gesture.

McCain suspended his campaign on September 24. The polls had *not* started to go in the right direction for him at that time. On the contrary, his convention bounce had been dissipating even before the fall of Lehman Brothers, and with the single exception of the GWU/Battleground poll, every poll after September 19 and completed (or mostly completed) before the suspension showed Obama in the lead, a number by 4, 5, 6, or even 9 points:

GWU/Battleground 9/21 - 9/25 1000 LV 3.3 48 46 McCain +2 CBS News/NY Times 9/21 - 9/24 LV 4.0 43 48 Obama +5 FOX News 9/22 - 9/23 900 RV 3.0 39 45 Obama +6 Marist 9/22 - 9/23 689 LV 4.0 44 49 Obama +5 ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 780 LV 3.5 43 52 Obama +9 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/19 - 9/22 1085 RV 3.0 46 48 Obama +2 LA Times/Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/22 838 LV -- 45 49 Obama +4 Ipsos/McClatchy 9/18 - 9/22 923 RV 3.2 43 44 Obama +1 CNN/Opinion Research 9/19 - 9/21 697 LV 3.0 47 51 Obama +4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...neral_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

I am not defending the decision to suspend the campaign, but it was not the cause of McCain's meltdown: it was a desperate response to a meltdown that had already taken place.

 

[dw93]

The First Debate

The First Debate​

As the economy worsened and polls continued to favor Senator Obama (polls had Obama leading by 52% to 43 %), rumors were spreading that Senator McCain was going to suspend his campaign to return to Washington to help craft an economic bailout to save the economy. On September 24th, Mr. McCain denied this and said that “I’m going to stay out on the campaign trail to make it clear to the American people that my economic policies of tax cuts and increased oversight and accountability are what is needed to fight off the economic crisis.” He went on to say that he looked forward to debating Senator Obama on the 26th
.

The first of three Presidential Debates take place on September 26th at the University of Mississippi. The first half of the Debate revolved around the economic crisis. McCain talked about his experience, while Obama tied McCain to the unpopular Bush administration and detailed his plans for what he wanted to do as President. A little over 50 million viewers watched the debate. While analysts said John McCain did better on foreign policy, they also said Barack Obama did better on domestic policy and almost half the viewers believed Obama won the debate. Only 22% of voters felt McCain had one the debate and the rest of the viewers were undecided.

 

[historybuff]

I'm sure, like he did in '08', McCaine won't use any of the conspiracy theories about Obama at all in his campaign.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

They one way you could have a Republican win in 2008 is to have John Kerry or Al Gore win. Well if Gore won in 2000, Obama could be the Democratic nominee. That being said I am looking forward to reading this.

 

[dw93]

Early October: Allegations and a Vice Presidential Debate

An October Surprise?​

On September 30th, it was reported that John Edwards did have an affair with Rile Hunter and that he was the father of her child. On October 1st, one day before the Vice Presidential debate with Governor Pawlenty, Edwards went on to deny that the affair ever happened, saying that “the allegations against me are false, I love my wife and family and would never do anything to hurt them. I ask that these allegations be put to rest to spare my family of any more pain and embarrassment. “

Senator Obama defended his running mate by saying that “I believe Senator Edwards is telling the truth. John is a good honest family man, and is going to be a great Vice President. I agree with Senator Edwards that this matter needs to be put to rest so that we could focus on the issues that matter most to the American people.

The Vice Presidential Debate​

October 2nd is that day of the Vice Presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis Missouri. Governor Pawlenty used the debate as an opportunity to show voters that he and Senator John McCain could get things done in Washington. “I’m a Republican who was twice elected Governor in a Democratic state. I worked with Democrats in the state legislature to get things done, and Senator McCain has a long record of bipartisan ship, and if elected Senator McCain and I will work with Democrats to get our economy working again, and will achieve victory in Iraq and Afghanistan.” He also used this opportunity to say that if people had listened to Senator McCain and reigned in on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, this crisis may not have ever happened.
Senator Edwards replied by saying that “John McCain was once a bipartisan leader. A maverick if you will. However, in recent years, he hasn’t been so bipartisan. This is a Senator that proudly said he voted with President Bush over 90% of the time. Even more than most of his Republican colleagues. The John McCain that we’ve seen in recent years that blindly supported the Bush/Cheney administration is not the right man for the job, not when our economy is in this much trouble and not when there is so much instability abroad, Senator Obama and I will bring the changes necessary to get the American economy moving again, and end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan." He also made it clear to voters that he felt that had he and Senator John Kerry won four years earlier, the country would not be in such a mess today. When asked about the recent allegations of marital infidelity, he said that “I’ve already made it very clear that I did not have an inappropriate relationship with Rile Hunter, I’m tired of hearing about, we need to focus on more important issues, like the economic crisis.”


When asked who they felt was more qualified to be President, 50% of viewers thought Governor Pawlenty was qualified, while 45% felt Senator Edwards was, and 5% of viewers had no opinion or didn’t know. When asked who won the debate, 40% of respondents said Governor Pawlenty won, while 38% had said it was a win for Senator Edwards. 23% of respondents said it was a tie. Some also said Senator Edwards sounded bitter when he mentioned the 2004 election in the debate. As a result of recent allegations of infidelity and a good debate performance by Governor Pawlenty, the polls, which had Obama at a 9 point lead at the end of September are now at 50% for Obama, 46% for McCain, and 4% who are undecided.

 

[dw93]

The Truth comes out

“The allegations against me are false.” The Facts say otherwise​

On October 4th, just two days after the Vice Presidential debate and three days before the second Presidential debate, photos and recorded phone conversations between Former Senator John Edwards and Rile Hunter were released to the press, confirming that the Vice Presidential candidate did in fact have a sexual relationship with Hunter. Analysts were predicting trouble for the Obama/Edwards ticket, and with the release of the photos, many were now questioning whether or not Edwards really was the father of Hunter’s daughter. That evening, Edwards held a press conference and admitted to having an affair. “Good evening, apparently I have not been truthful to the man who selected me to be his running mate, the electorate, and most importantly, my family. Four days ago, I denied having an affair with Ms. Hunter, and I denied it again during the Vice Presidential debate two days ago. However I’m here today to tell you that I did indeed have a relationship with Ms. Hunter. It was a mistake and a mistake that I deeply regret, however the allegations that I am the father of her child is false and that is the honest to god truth. I’d like to take this opportunity to apologize to the electorate, my running mate, and most importantly, my wife and children. I am truly deeply sorry. If Senator Obama would like me to, I will resign from the ticket. Thank you and God bless.”

The next day, at a campaign rally in Florida, Senator Barack Obama was asked if he was going to ask his running mate to resign from the ticket. Obama replied by saying that “If John wants to resign, he can, but I’m not going to force him to. He may’ve made a mistake, but he is human and we all make mistakes. I stand by my decision to select Senator Edwards as my running mate and still feel that he’d be an excellent Vice President.”

Meanwhile and a campaign stop in Iowa, Senator John McCain responded to Edwards’ scandal. He said that “the recent revelations about Senator Edwards are truly shocking and upsetting. While my Heart goes out to the Edwards family, this whole incident has really made me question the judgment of both Senator Obama and Senator Edwards. John Edwards should resign immediately, and if I were Senator Obama I would not give him the option, I would demand him to resign immediately.”

In an interview on FOX News, Governor Tim Pawlenty had this to say. “Eight years ago, the American People elected President George W. Bush to restore honor and dignity to the office of the Presidency of the United States after 8 scandalous years of Bill Clinton and I’m happy to say that he did. Today we have a man with morals that are equivalent to those of Bill Clinton and it is very important that the American people vote for the ticket that will uphold the honor and dignity that this President restored, and not let the Democrats destroy it."

 

[dw93]

The Polls after Rilegate​

The polls after the revelations about John Edwards and going into the second Presidential Debate were 48% for McCain, 46% for Obama and 6% undecided. Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, Ohio, and Florida, which were toss up states, now started to lean red, and Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire, which leaned blue were now in the toss up column. The scandal had taken its’ toll on the Obama/Edwards campaign. Obama needed a good debate performance to reverse the trends.

 

[David T]

First of all, I don't think Obama would choose Edwards as his running mate in any event. Edwards had been a failure as a vice-presidential candidate in 2008 (he didn't even make NC close) and it is to say the least not usual to renominate failed vice-presidential candidates four years later. Second, the idea that the affair could be covered up so long that as late as August there are not even rumors about it--and even rumors would be enough to kill any prospect of his getting the nomination--yet somehow come out in October is very implausible. Third, if it did, there would be enormous pressure on Edwards to quit the ticket. I don't doubt that even if Edwards quits and someone else is nominated, this will cause Obama harm, but this is not like the Eagleton case where Eagleton was seen as somewhat sympathetic. By Election Day, the focus will be back on the economy and Obama will still win though by a lesser margin than in OTL.

 

[dw93]

First of all, I don't think Obama would choose Edwards as his running mate in any event. Edwards had been a failure as a vice-presidential candidate in 2008 (he didn't even make NC close) and it is to say the least not usual to renominate failed vice-presidential candidates four years later. Second, the idea that the affair could be covered up so long that as late as August there are not even rumors about it--and even rumors would be enough to kill any prospect of his getting the nomination--yet somehow come out in October is very implausible. Third, if it did, there would be enormous pressure on Edwards to quit the ticket. I don't doubt that even if Edwards quits and someone else is nominated, this will cause Obama harm, but this is not like the Eagleton case where Eagleton was seen as somewhat sympathetic. By Election Day, the focus will be back on the economy and Obama will still win though by a lesser margin than in OTL.

Everyone makes mistakes and Obama is no exception, and to answer your comment about the affair being covered up for so long, Bill Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky had been going on for two years before anyone found out about it. As to whether there is pressure for Edwards to quit the ticket, there is, it's just that Obama won't drop him and Edwards won't quit. The final nail in the coffin for the Obama campaign is coming soon.