John Major goes to the polls in 1996

Something that had always made me wonder was why John Major didn't continue the tradition of going to the UK electorate every four years.

He didn't in 1991, though that was understandable (thought he might lose and so hung on to 1992).

I have suspected it was simply a 'We're going to lose, hang on as long as possible' situation. But what if he hadn't? What if he'd simply recognised the inevitable and called a general election in May 1996 instead?

Any thoughts on the short term and long term consequences?

Some of my own:
1. If Major is going in 1996, he may not resign as Conservative leader in 1995 triggering the contest with Redwood.

2. Labour and Blair's win in 1996 is just as inevitable as in 1997, BUT
a) With possibly a smaller (though still a landslide) majority - Say 160 or so? Is this more reasonable?
b) With Portillo still around (perhaps) will he run for Conservative Party leader?

3. Assuming Major does resign immediately following defeat, who will replace him in 1996? Is Heseltine now too old? Is Hague now too young? Did Portillo manage to avoid defeat after all? Could Redwood throw his hat in?

4. Assuming minimal butterflies, how would the 2000 election play out (presumably Labour win - but a landslide?)

5. And pressing on further, into 2004, could we see the Conservatives somehow pull off a win here, especially if Blair has pursued an Iraq war with Bush and its even rawer with the electorate?
 
He didn't for the same reason Brown didn't go in 2009 and Macmillan didn't go in 1963, Hang on as long as possible and hope something turns up." 1996 also saw the BSE crisis so it wasn't a good time to be going to the electorate. The only chance the Tories had would have been if Major had quit following Black Wednesday, however the likely successor would either have been Ken Clarke or Michael Heseltine either one of whom would have split the Party because of their views on Europe, in hindsight Major was probably the least worst option.
 
He didn't for the same reason Brown didn't go in 2009 and Macmillan didn't go in 1963, Hang on as long as possible and hope something turns up." 1996 also saw the BSE crisis so it wasn't a good time to be going to the electorate. The only chance the Tories had would have been if Major had quit following Black Wednesday, however the likely successor would either have been Ken Clarke or Michael Heseltine either one of whom would have split the Party because of their views on Europe, in hindsight Major was probably the least worst option.

The catastrophe for the Tories was the win in 1992, I genuinely believe it took them by surprise. They made a lot of promises they simply couldn't keep and squarely caught the blame for the economic meltdown later that year, from that point on they were doomed to an overwhelming defeat at the next election, Kinnock's departure pretty much guaranteed a landslide as he had rather unfairly become a liability with the media.
 
So is a 1996 election called by Major as ASB as Sealion then?

I'd always though it not particularly unreasonable POD, but perhaps not.
 
What's the incentive? The economy was improving and the Tories were doing utterly shit in the polls. Anyone in that situation was always going to bank on the feel good factor kicking in at some point and something croping up rather than hara kiri.
 
The catastrophe for the Tories was the win in 1992, I genuinely believe it took them by surprise. They made a lot of promises they simply couldn't keep and squarely caught the blame for the economic meltdown later that year, from that point on they were doomed to an overwhelming defeat at the next election, Kinnock's departure pretty much guaranteed a landslide as he had rather unfairly become a liability with the media.

Absolutely, Spitting Image did a sketch of Major, Lamont and Clarke waking up after a pretty heavy party and then screaming "OH NO WE WON!!!" :D I actually think Black Wednesday could have been avoided if Major had gone for an ERM realignment immediately after the election, he had huge political capital at that point and he could have ridden out the criticism. It would have also taken a lot of the heat out of the European debate as the Eurosceptics wouldn't have been able to use Black Wednesday to claim they'd been vindicated and possibly making passage of the Maastricht Treaty easier.
 
Absolutely, Spitting Image did a sketch of Major, Lamont and Clarke waking up after a pretty heavy party and then screaming "OH NO WE WON!!!" :D I actually think Black Wednesday could have been avoided if Major had gone for an ERM realignment immediately after the election, he had huge political capital at that point and he could have ridden out the criticism. It would have also taken a lot of the heat out of the European debate as the Eurosceptics wouldn't have been able to use Black Wednesday to claim they'd been vindicated and possibly making passage of the Maastricht Treaty easier.

At the time as a Labour supporter it seemed like a a disaster; with hindsight they dodged a bullet as it meant the Tories couldn't sit on the opposition benches and go 'I told you so' when the economic problems they had created hit home. I suspect if Labour had won in 92' the Conservatives would have been back in come 97'.
Major could certainly have handled things better but the problem was there were too many in the party still angry over the fall of Thatcher and after 92' they just seemed to lose any semblance of cohesion, and then there was the seemingly endless series of scandals. Going to the polls a year earlier wouldn't have saved them.
 
He didn't for the same reason Brown didn't go in 2009 and Macmillan didn't go in 1963, Hang on as long as possible and hope something turns up." 1996 also saw the BSE crisis so it wasn't a good time to be going to the electorate. The only chance the Tories had would have been if Major had quit following Black Wednesday, however the likely successor would either have been Ken Clarke or Michael Heseltine either one of whom would have split the Party because of their views on Europe, in hindsight Major was probably the least worst option.

I believe there was a discussion where the idea of Malcolm Rifkind taking over was given a fair eye and he may have done a better job as he was Eurosceptic and may have been able to appease the right, gain credit for the recovery that the everyone-hate of Major covered and might have passed some needed constitutional reform (Scottish Parliament).
 
Going to the polls a year earlier wouldn't have saved them.

And I agree. What I was interested in would be the post 1996 election fall out, both within the Conservative party, and future elections to (say) the mid 2000's. Could the Conservatives come back sooner?
 
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