John Kerry Chooses Janet Napolitano as 2004 Running Mate

Acorrding to her Wikipedia page, Janet Napolitano was one of the potential running mates for John Kerry in 2004. So what would the impact be if he had chosen her as his VP instead of Edwards?
 
Probably flips New Mexico (and maybe Nevada), though Arizona probably still goes for the Republicans. Bush still probably wins the election, although it was relatively close enough that really only the minimal amount of butterflies could change the outcome, so it's hard to say. If Kerry loses, it's possible that she runs for the Democratic nomination in 2008 (though I don't think she wins) or gets a more important position in the Obama (or possibly Clinton) administration.
 
Flipping Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada gets you a 269-269 tie in 2004 - not enough for Kerry. He needed Ohio.
 
Napolitano got re elected by high margins so she might be enough to flip Arizona
Having lived in Arizona and following the Gubernatorial Election of 2006 closely, I say she crushed her Republican challenger (Len Munsil) by a landslide. But in 2004, she had not served long enough as governor to distinguish her nationally.

So let's say she does as everyone has already said (saves Iowa and New Mexico, wins Nevada) and by some miracle, is more popular in her home state than Senator John McCain (who helped President George W. Bush win the state in 2004). Or, you could say that McCain somehow foresees the economic collapse and financial crisis three years earlier and attempts to sabotage the Republican Ticket in order to run safely four years later.

Kerry/Napolitano Victory:
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Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): 279 Electoral Votes

President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY): 259 Electoral Votes

John Kerry makes history as the first president to win without Ohio and Florida.
 
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Might a tied race weaken Bush's claim to a mandate to the point where he doesn't try to partially privatize Social Security?
 
If John Kerry wins 2004 and gets blamed for the Economic Collapse and Financial Crisis of 2007, could the United States Presidential Election of 2008 look the way the map shows it?

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Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Governor Matt Blunt (R-MO): 291 Electoral Votes

President John Kerry (D-MA)/Vice President Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): 247 Electoral Votes

Nah. Kerry would lose by a bigger margin, maybe even by the margin McCain lost by IOTL.
 
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Might a tied race weaken Bush's claim to a mandate to the point where he doesn't try to partially privatize Social Security?
I doubt it, he barely had a mandate in 2004 OTL and still pushed it, and having despite not having any mandate after 2000, he still pushed a $1.3 trillion tax cut and his education plan through.
 
If John Kerry wins 2004 and gets blamed for the Economic Collapse and Financial Crisis of 2007, could the United States Presidential Election of 2008 look the way the map shows it?

genusmap.php


Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Governor Matt Blunt (R-MO): 291 Electoral Votes

President John Kerry (D-MA)/Vice President Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): 247 Electoral Votes
I'd flip Iowa and New Mexico to Romney and maybe Wisconsin as well, giving Romney 313 EVs, to Kerry's 225 Evs.
 
I guess in 2012 we see Obama, Sanders, Napolitano, Biden and Clinton all competing for the Democratic Nomination then if Romney beats Kerry in 2008
 
I guess in 2012 we see Obama, Sanders, Napolitano, Biden and Clinton all competing for the Democratic Nomination then if Romney beats Kerry in 2008

Scratch Sanders, throw in Chris Dodd or John Edwards, maybe. I think the Move On wing of the party would fall in behind Obama, so no openings for someone farther left.
 
I'd flip Iowa and New Mexico to Romney and maybe Wisconsin as well, giving Romney 313 EVs, to Kerry's 225 Evs.
I'd say Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and ME-02 would go red too.

*UPDATED ELECTORAL MAP*

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Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Governor Matt Blunt (R-MO): 339 Electoral Votes

President John Kerry (D-MA)/Vice President Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): 199 Electoral Votes
 
I guess in 2012 we see Obama, Sanders, Napolitano, Biden and Clinton all competing for the Democratic Nomination then if Romney beats Kerry in 2008
Scratch Sanders, throw in Chris Dodd or John Edwards, maybe. I think the Move On wing of the party would fall in behind Obama, so no openings for someone farther left.

Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2012:

  • Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
  • Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)
  • Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)
  • Former Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT)
  • Former Attorney General John Edwards (D-NC) [1]
  • Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)
  • Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) [2]
  • Former Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack (D-IA) [3]
  • Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
  • Senator Jim Webb (D-VA)
[1] President John Kerry nominated Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as his Attorney General.
[2] Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana was re-elected to the United States Senate in 2010. Withdrew before the primary elections. Became a finalist on Senator Hillary Clinton of New York's shortlist of Vice Presidential nominees.
[3] President Kerry nominated Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa as his Secretary of Agriculture. Like Bayh, withdrew before the primary elections and became a finalist on Clinton's shortlist.

Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska was speculated, however, he was seen as too old and his tenure as Senator too far removed/irrelevant. Former Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico was also speculated, however, he was weighed down by too much baggage while governor.


Potential Vice Presidential Nominees:
  • Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)
  • Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)
  • Former Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA)
  • Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT)
  • Senator Mark Warner (D-VA)
 
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Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2012:

  • Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
  • Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)
  • Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)
  • Former Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT)
  • Former Attorney General John Edwards (D-NC) [1]
  • Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)
  • Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) [2]
  • Former Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack (D-IA) [3]
  • Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
  • Senator Jim Webb (D-VA)
[1] President John Kerry nominated Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as his Attorney General.
[2] Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana was re-elected to the United States Senate in 2010. Withdrew before the primary elections. Became a finalist on Senator Hillary Clinton of New York's shortlist of Vice Presidential nominees.
[3] President Kerry nominated Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa as his Secretary of Agriculture. Like Bayh, withdrew before the primary elections and became a finalist on Clinton's shortlist.
Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska was speculated, however, he was seen as too old and and his tenure as Senator too far removed/irrelevant. Former Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico was also speculated, however, he was weighed down by too much baggage while governor.


Potential Vice Presidential Nominees:
  • Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)
  • Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)
  • Former Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA)
  • Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT)
  • Senator Mark Warner (D-VA)

So you see Clinton trumping Obama to take on Romney?
 
So you see Clinton trumping Obama to take on Romney?
The Democratic nominee could be either Clinton or Obama, but the only reason I mentioned Bayh and Vilsack "making her shortlist" is because I was explaining what happened to them after dropping out and why they would be seen campaigning with Clinton in their homestates. If she won the nomination, she probably would select Bayh or Vilsack as her vice presidential nominee. Obama would probably select Mark Warner or Tim Kaine because Biden would be too old in 2012 and if Obama is re-elected in 2010, he wouldn't be the same one-term senator we saw in OTL 2008.
 
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I guess that means we would have to wait til 2012 to get healthcare maybe?

There's a chance Kerry would take a crack at it. Without Obama's massive Congressional majorities, though, it would almost certainly fail. Odds are we'd still not have it by 2016.
 
There's a chance Kerry would take a crack at it. Without Obama's massive Congressional majorities, though, it would almost certainly fail. Odds are we'd still not have it by 2016.

What if Romney tried to pass Romneycare?
 
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