John Hacketts „The Third World War!“

John Hacketts „The Third World War!“

(And other books with 1970th future tropes)



John Hacketts „The Third World War!“, published in 1978, is one of the most famous example for a fictional conventional war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Mostly forgotten about the book is, that it also tried to predict the political world of 1985 and failed at it spectacularly. Practical the book was in the minute it was published already Alternate History.

In this scenario I want to show how we could get to this different 1985 and how the world will develop after that. “The Third World War!” will be canon, a book written ITTL by a couple of British soldiers in early 1987. Hacketts sequel “The Third World War! The Untold Story” will be not canon, but some elements from this book will be used. I will also use ideas from books written at a similar time and with similar ideas like Hacketts book, ideas I call 1970th future tropes. This books will be: Paul Erdman “Crash 79” and “the last Days of America”, Frederick Forsyth “the Devils Alternative”, Anthony Burgess “1985”, Alfred Coppel “the Apocalypse Brigade” and “the Hastings Conspiracy”, Colin Forbes “The Stone Leopard”.



….................



Before the War

1978 - 1985



Its 1978 and one survival and two death change history forever.

In Rome Pope John Paul I. has his heart attack at day and not at night. Help is around, the Pope gets reanimated and survives.

The “Smiling Pope” will lives on several years, often ill and tired, mostly signing what the Curia gives him. There will be, at least till 1985, no Polish Pope. The emerging Polish Crisis will stay on slow-burn for some years. Also without a less dedicated anti-communist Pope, the way is free in Italy for a great coalition between Christian Democrats and Communists in 1982.



In India Indira Gandhi is killed during a political rally. The Congress-Party never recovers from their defeat in 1977 and falls apart. India soon follows.



The most important death is Shah Reza Pahlevi. The Ruler Of Iran dies January 1978 under mysterious circumstances in his luxurious loft in the Swiss alps. (the reasons for his death involved a young swiss woman). This is the most important change. Iran goes through a series of riots in 1978, but many Iranians still want to give the new young Shah and a new appointed reform government a chance. So the riots never reach the critical mass for a full revolution. Iran stabilize in 1979, ruled by a coalition of the military, the bourgeoisie and the moderate clerics with the Shah as figurehead. 1985 it has an image as a nation very close to be a full developed power.



No Iranian Revolution has major influence on the economic and political development of the world.

There is no second oil price shock (even the price still rises slowly over the next years) and just a small recession in 1982 (but stagflation still stays an issue).



Naturally this all helps Carter to get reelected in 1980 (some claim Carter would have been more vulnerable, if the GOP hadn´t nominated an unelectable right-winger like Reagan).

But the most important change is, that there is no soviet Invasion in Afghanistan. With a stable, pro-western, well-armed Iran around the corner, the Politburo consider a Invasion to risky.



Without Afghanistan it don´t come to what in OTL was seen as the Second Cold War. Detente keeps going on and ironically the general public is in the early 1980th much less afraid of a nuclear war then IOTL.

That´s not in all cases a good thing: In Yugoslavia Tito still dies in 1980. Without the war scare in the early 1980th his successors handle the internal conflicts even less carefully, so that the great meltdown already happens in 1985.



No Second Cold War leads also to changes in other surprising places.

IOTL in the late Seventies an agreement of an early independence for Namibia seemed to be close. But in the end South Africa broke off the negations, probably because they thought in this critical time, the West wouldn´t press the issue.

But ITTL the agreement comes together and Namibia becomes independent in 1980......and soon after that a SWAPO-One-Party-Dictatorship.



Other changes occur in Egypt. The peace treaty with Israel still comes together, but with Iran still the main US-ally in the region, Egypt receive just little US-support. Population and military are disappointed and after bread-price-riots Sadat is ousted through a coup. The new rulers still respect the peace treaty, but Egypt drifts back into the Soviet camp.



Some things don´t change.

Maggie Thatcher still wins in 1979. But her government set different priorities in the defense policy. Navy and Air Defense is strengthen, but the Challenger tank (and Channel 4) is cut. A stronger RN keeps a presence in the South Atlantic and prevents the Falkland War.



In West Germany Helmut Schmidt still defeats Franz Josef Strauß in 1980. Actually, Schmidt victory is bigger and the SPD becomes the strongest party.

Through this and without a major economic crisis the social-liberal government stay stable till 1984.

There are no new US-missiles stationed in Western Europe (which is also helpful for Schmidt to keep his party and his coalition together). There is still a NATO-Double-track-decision, but in the SALT III-agreement of 1982 (SALT II had been ratified) the numbers of soviet SS-20 missiles is limited on 150.

West Germany’s new Army structure for the 1980th is a bit different to OTL. Less tank-heavy, but the new Leopard II get deployed faster.



In France Mitterrand still gets President in 1981. Without the Second Cold War he keeps his people front government till 1985. Mitterrand and Schmidt don´t get along very good. There are no new european initiatives. That´s one of the reasons why Moscow believes, France would stay neutral in a european conflict.



Even without a Second Cold War things starts to get colder in international relationships. There is a growing disappointed with Detente in the western public. It would be even worse, if the public knew some backgrounds.

In 1981 the so called North-Sea-Hostage crisis happens. The public sees it just as terror attack and don´t know about the secret connection to the mysterious death of Yuri Andropov. Even in 1987 it is still a close secret, that a extremely dangerous East-West-Confrontation happened during the Crisis (that´s the reason the crisis isn´t mentioned in the book). Kremlin-intrigues during the Crisis allowed president Carter for a short time an inside view in the Politburo. He found it very disturbing how casual the Politburo discusses the possibility of an invasion of Western Europe and how few option he would have in such a case. The result is the Carter build-up. He is not comparable to the Reagan-build-up IOTL, but because it concentrate more on the Army and the Air Force and less on the Navy and Strategic forces, it is very successful in bringing the US conventional forces back in shape. Carter invest a lot of political capital to reestablish the Draft in 1982. On US pressure NATO imply a new defense strategy similar to OTL FOFA. In 1985 the US forces are in good shape. Differences to OTL are, that the Reforger divisions doesn´t need round-out brigades from the National Guard and the Army Reserve, but also that ACR`s still have at least one squadron of M551 Sheridan.

The Carter-build-up has a unwanted side effect. Together with Carters decision not to station Neutron-bombs and new missiles in Europe, the Soviets interpret it as a sign, that the US start to denuclearizing their military strategy, so from their POV the chances.

The build-up doesn´t happen in all places. Without the Second Cold War, Carter follows on with his OTL plan to retreat all US-land-forces from South Korea. The US-allies in the region, especially Japan, are disturbed about this. Will the US in the end totally give up their presence in the region? Japans government decides, that they need in this case much better relationships with China. In the next years the Japanese swallow a lot of their pride and over excuses for Japans war crimes in WWII. The Chinese, interested in technology and investment from Japan, except this. Till 1985 the japans-chinese relationships grow really cordial.



In Moscow, Chernenko becomes Brezhnev successor 1982. The Politburo becomes more and more dominated by hardliners and cold warriors.



In the USA, the midterm-elections of 1982 are, especially in the South, a republican year. In South Carolina an US-representative called Thompson surprisingly defeats the popular democratic governor. Political pundits take an interest in Thompson, who seems like the perfect compromise candidate between the conservative and the moderate wing of the GOP.



Maggie Thatcher still gets reelected in 1983. But without the Falkland-war and without Labors sharp turn to the left, she got a much smaller majority then IOTL. So she tries to avoid in the next years a confrontation with the Trade Unions.

In the first half of 1985, as the thread of war already looms about Europe, Thatcher calls for the development of a new british war plan. It´s decided, that Britain will concentrate all his reserves in West Germany to form a II. British corps. The name for the war plan is Lion.



1984! The countdown to war starts in Poland.



In West Germany the Federal Elections in October 1984 are practically a repeat of 1976. The chancellor is Helmut Schmidt, the CDU-candidate is Helmut Kohl and even the result is similar. Kohl comes close, but just not close enough to win.



In November 1984 Governor Thompson wins the US presidential elections. Moscow decides to teach him a lesson. Things go out of hands.



March 1985: Chernenko dies. Pandemonium in the Politburo. The great plan starts to go wrong. The UAR (United Arabic Republics) are horrible unstable. If the Americans and the Iranians intervene, all will fall apart. The arabian oil will be lost and the Soviet Union will be humiliated. And the counterrevolution will rise their ugly head again. The peace party goes weaker and weaker. Starting the war without a nuclear first strike is already seen as a moderate compromise position.



June 1985: Its a lie! The Yugoslavian Operation is a limited operation, claims the Chief of Staff, if it is successful, the Socialist Bloc will be secured and peace will be saved. The general mobilization is just needed to be prepared for all options. The Politburo members know it is a lie, but they want to believe it. If the general mobilization starts, it means war. It is just to disruptive for the economy to be called off again. Yugoslavia is just needed, that the Americans fire the first shot.



End of July 1985: Italy is in chaos. Strikes and protest against the NATO-alert. Reservist refuse the mobilization order. The parliament is blocked, the government has resigned. The Leader of the Communist Party is no hardliner, he believes in Democracy. But he knows, that there is still the “Deep Party”, the old Stalinist, which now see their time coming. And he thinks, the only other option will be a coup from the Right. And then nuclear fire over Italy. He gives his approval. Some days later the President of the Republic appoints him premier minister. Every thing strictly legal. The Communists have taken over. Italy will not fight.



Fourth August 1985: Day X



Next: After the War
 
A few things, Governor Thompson was from South Carolina named as such, he beat Walter Mondale in the 1984 election. (Carter's VP). (Mondale losing the Presidency in 1984 was one thing Hackett got spot on).
In the book the British PM was named "Plummer" and in "The Devil's Alternative" she was named as "Joan Carpenter".
 
A few things, Governor Thompson was from South Carolina named as such, he beat Walter Mondale in the 1984 election. (Carter's VP). (Mondale losing the Presidency in 1984 was one thing Hackett got spot on).
In the book the British PM was named "Plummer" and in "The Devil's Alternative" she was named as "Joan Carpenter".[
In the USA, the midterm-elections of 1982 are, especially in the South, a republican year. In South Carolina an US-representative called Thompson surprisingly defeats the popular democratic governor. Political pundits take an interest in Thompson, who seems like the perfect compromise candidate between the conservative and the moderate wing of the GOP.

Like you see I mentioned were Thompson is from.

Plummer and Carpeter are obviously Thatcher so I stayed with the original. The US-president in "the Devil`s Alternative" is also obvious Carter.
 
Like you see I mentioned were Thompson is from.

Plummer and Carpeter are obviously Thatcher so I stayed with the original. The US-president in "the Devil`s Alternative" is also obvious Carter.
Yeah my mistake regards Thompson. President William "Bill" Matthews in the "The Devil's Alternative", a Southern Democratic former Governor agree is just Carter.
 
After the War

1985 -2016



Birmingham



Why Birmingham?

Why a british city? The UK was a nuclear power, it was obvious that it would retaliate. Why not attack Bonn, Rotterdam or Antwerp? Why not a city, where there were at least a small chance, that the western nuclear powers would do nothing. Or just retaliate against military targets in Eastern Europe? In end it turned out, the last possibility was what the soviet leadership feared most.

To the surprise of the West, it turned out, that the standard soviet war plans actually demanded a massive nuclear first-strike with several hundreds “tactical” warheads. A conventional war was just a variant, actually a unwanted variant, because after the opinion of a huge part of the military leadership, only a first-strike would guarantee victory. But other generals and the politicians argued, that it would hardly count as a victory, when Europe would be turned from the Atlantic to Ural to a nuclear wasteland, even if soviet tanks, manned by radiation-poisoned zombies, would still reach the Pyrenees.

The Politburo wanted a “Clausewitz”-war for political means and that what they got. But after the failure of the invasion, the nuclear fraction raised their voice again. They wanted to renew the offensive through a massive first-strike, returning to the original war-plan. The Politburo just wanted a nuclear demonstration, to get a cease-fire. The pro-nuke generals warned, that a nuclear demonstration in Central Europe would give NATO the excuse, to launch from their side a first-strike to destroy the soviet forces in the GDR and the CSSR. Even if as retaliation the NATO forces in West Germany would be destroyed, the lose of their best forces would be a decisive blow for the USSR. It would be impossible to keep control about Easter Europe after that. Good, answered the moderates, then lets make sure, that retaliation don´t hit our forces, but, lets say, just one of our city’s.

It a british city would be destroyed, the British surly would demand the destruction of a soviet city. With a probability of 62 % soviet experts predicted that Minsk would be target. The Politburo saw this as a acceptable sacrifice. No special warning was given to the authorities in Minsk. Why take the chance?



…..................
 
Italy

At the killing in the rest of Europe ended, it just started in Italy.

The new premier minister would have preferred, that Italy simply declare his neutrality, but the men of the “Deep Party” and the soviet ambassador made it clear, that the occupation was inevitable.

So the italian army and the Carabenieri were ordered to return to the barracks ( which they often hadn´t even left) and the Soviets moved in. Still, the Soviets could just spare 3 division for the whole operation, together with some KGB-specialist just 50000 men. Not really enough to control the whole peninsula directly. The divisions were stationed by Milan, Rome and Naples. At the first day of their arrival the Soviets drove with tanks through the cities and showed their presence. There is a famous picture from this time, were a single swiss guards-man keeps the watch at the Vatican border against several soviet tanks. After that, the troops were stationed outside the cities and the Soviets mostly occupied with catching the remaining NATO-personal. The KGB occupied the AFSOUTH-headquarter in Naples. The next 10 days seemed for many Italians like “business as usual” (although in same areas some kind of small-scale “Red Terror”, initiated by the “Deep Party” and the remains of the Red Brigades, happens.

Then at 17.08.1985 the Main Station of Bologna explodes.

Gladio, the secret sword of NATO is finally drawn.

Hundreds of bombs explodes in the next week. Surprisingly few have the soviets as target. The main goal of the panic seems to be to steer up panic under the population. The Soviets don´t care. The successful SOUTHAG-offensive threatens to cut them of. At the 19. August a retreat starts. Fast as they came the Soviets go again. As their last troops cross the border, the Italian army finally leaves the barracks. Italian tanks drove now through the streets of Rome, surrounding government buildings and radio stations. The premier minister sit at his desk and has just written his resignation. As soldiers enter his office, he expect to get arrested. Instead he get directly shot. Some hours later his body get thrown out of a helicopter into the Mediterranean Sea. He is the first of many to follow.

The White Terror is in full force.

At the 24. August the new formed Italian government return from her spanish exile. At the airport they get a welcome from the new Minister of Information Silvio Berlusconi.
 
This is excellent.

I read Hackett's book shortly after it came out, and I mainly learned from it that there were generals within NATO who were nuts.

I don't know which is my favorite bit of right wing nuttery, Italy siding with the Soviets, or South Africa as the gallant NATO ally, but I"m quite enjoying the Italian part of this timeline.

I also liked the reasoning behind the destruction of Birmingham, which as you imply was utterly pointless even within the logic of the book.
 
This is excellent.

I read Hackett's book shortly after it came out, and I mainly learned from it that there were generals within NATO who were nuts.

I don't know which is my favorite bit of right wing nuttery, Italy siding with the Soviets, or South Africa as the gallant NATO ally, but I"m quite enjoying the Italian part of this timeline.

I also liked the reasoning behind the destruction of Birmingham, which as you imply was utterly pointless even within the logic of the book.

There is a really lot of nuttery in book. India falls apart without a real reason. I assume its a "Take that, ungrateful little, brown people!" Dutchs don´t give their soldiers a proper haircut? The dutch corps falls apart and allows the Soviets to drive in a couple of hours to the Weser. German Reunification? No Sir!
Okay, I understand it a bit with Birmingham. He wanted to show how british civil defense works. But story-wise it makes not really sense.
 
Italy

At the killing in the rest of Europe ended, it just started in Italy.

The new premier minister would have preferred, that Italy simply declare his neutrality, but the men of the “Deep Party” and the soviet ambassador made it clear, that the occupation was inevitable.

So the italian army and the Carabenieri were ordered to return to the barracks ( which they often hadn´t even left) and the Soviets moved in. Still, the Soviets could just spare 3 division for the whole operation, together with some KGB-specialist just 50000 men. Not really enough to control the whole peninsula directly. The divisions were stationed by Milan, Rome and Naples. At the first day of their arrival the Soviets drove with tanks through the cities and showed their presence. There is a famous picture from this time, were a single swiss guards-man keeps the watch at the Vatican border against several soviet tanks. After that, the troops were stationed outside the cities and the Soviets mostly occupied with catching the remaining NATO-personal. The KGB occupied the AFSOUTH-headquarter in Naples. The next 10 days seemed for many Italians like “business as usual” (although in same areas some kind of small-scale “Red Terror”, initiated by the “Deep Party” and the remains of the Red Brigades, happens.

Then at 17.08.1985 the Main Station of Bologna explodes.

Gladio, the secret sword of NATO is finally drawn.

Hundreds of bombs explodes in the next week. Surprisingly few have the soviets as target. The main goal of the panic seems to be to steer up panic under the population. The Soviets don´t care. The successful SOUTHAG-offensive threatens to cut them of. At the 19. August a retreat starts. Fast as they came the Soviets go again. As their last troops cross the border, the Italian army finally leaves the barracks. Italian tanks drove now through the streets of Rome, surrounding government buildings and radio stations. The premier minister sit at his desk and has just written his resignation. As soldiers enter his office, he expect to get arrested. Instead he get directly shot. Some hours later his body get thrown out of a helicopter into the Mediterranean Sea. He is the first of many to follow.

The White Terror is in full force.

At the 24. August the new formed Italian government return from her spanish exile. At the airport they get a welcome from the new Minister of Information Silvio Berlusconi.

Eh? What? Why? You are serious?

Neutrality is ok but allowing the KGB and 'Deep Party' Red Terror? Sure, yeah whatever
 
Eh? What? Why? You are serious?

Neutrality is ok but allowing the KGB and 'Deep Party' Red Terror? Sure, yeah whatever
I assume you mean that the premier minister allows this? This is a misunderstanding. The Red Terror is the act of local assholes and some former terrorists, who think their time has now come and the goverment can´t do much about it, because the whole nation hangs now in some kind of limbo. The KGB is not involved. They are to busy to get as much NATO-informations as they can.
 
I assume you mean that the premier minister allows this? This is a misunderstanding. The Red Terror is the act of local assholes and some former terrorists, who think their time has now come and the goverment can´t do much about it, because the whole nation hangs now in some kind of limbo. The KGB is not involved. They are to busy to get as much NATO-informations as they can.

No, the prime minister allowing the soviet to send troops or/and KGB 'advisors' that's very absurd...while a neutral position it's an unlikely but possible scenario, that's it's out of the question. Except for a minority in the communist party nobody will want that, the secretary of the PCI first among them; plus any goverment with the communist with them will be like a minority one or one of national unity and all the other parties will be staunch about that.
Basically the moment he agree with that, he will be forced to resign and accused of treason; the more realistic position is neutral with full mobilization.
 
No, the prime minister allowing the soviet to send troops or/and KGB 'advisors' that's very absurd...while a neutral position it's an unlikely but possible scenario, that's it's out of the question. Except for a minority in the communist party nobody will want that, the secretary of the PCI first among them; plus any goverment with the communist with them will be like a minority one or one of national unity and all the other parties will be staunch about that.
Basically the moment he agree with that, he will be forced to resign and accused of treason; the more realistic position is neutral with full mobilization.

Yes, it is absurd, but its Hacketts story and I just try to make sense out of it. He writes that the Solviets occupy all of Italy till D +3 with just 3 division and without resistance.
 
Yes, it is absurd, but its Hacketts story and I just try to make sense out of it. He writes that the Solviets occupy all of Italy till D +3 with just 3 division and without resistance.

Because we are useless coward? :rolleyes::rolleyes: i feel a little irritated by this
 
Because we are useless coward? :rolleyes::rolleyes: i feel a little irritated by this
That is understandable. Basicly its a flawed book by a flawed author. But if you feel that I insulted your country, then I´m sorry. I actually wanted to avoid cliches and wanted to write a story, were good people for good reasons make bad decisions and play in the hand of bad people.
 
While I have never read the book (outside of reading the first few pages of a copy I found in my local university), I do know for a fact that Hackett intended it as some message to get NATO to increase their defenses against potential Soviet aggression; an author tract of sorts.
 
While I have never read the book (outside of reading the first few pages of a copy I found in my local university), I do know for a fact that Hackett intended it as some message to get NATO to increase their defenses against potential Soviet aggression; an author tract of sorts.
Yes, it is a author tract. Interestingly I think IOTL NATO increased actualy their defenses much more then Hackett expected.
 
the book appeared in 1978, during one of the lowest times of US morale and strength, the post-Vietnam malaise. A decade later, after two terms of Reagan, the situation was a lot different...
 
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