John Hacketts „The Third World War!“
(And other books with 1970th future tropes)
John Hacketts „The Third World War!“, published in 1978, is one of the most famous example for a fictional conventional war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
Mostly forgotten about the book is, that it also tried to predict the political world of 1985 and failed at it spectacularly. Practical the book was in the minute it was published already Alternate History.
In this scenario I want to show how we could get to this different 1985 and how the world will develop after that. “The Third World War!” will be canon, a book written ITTL by a couple of British soldiers in early 1987. Hacketts sequel “The Third World War! The Untold Story” will be not canon, but some elements from this book will be used. I will also use ideas from books written at a similar time and with similar ideas like Hacketts book, ideas I call 1970th future tropes. This books will be: Paul Erdman “Crash 79” and “the last Days of America”, Frederick Forsyth “the Devils Alternative”, Anthony Burgess “1985”, Alfred Coppel “the Apocalypse Brigade” and “the Hastings Conspiracy”, Colin Forbes “The Stone Leopard”.
….................
Before the War
1978 - 1985
Its 1978 and one survival and two death change history forever.
In Rome Pope John Paul I. has his heart attack at day and not at night. Help is around, the Pope gets reanimated and survives.
The “Smiling Pope” will lives on several years, often ill and tired, mostly signing what the Curia gives him. There will be, at least till 1985, no Polish Pope. The emerging Polish Crisis will stay on slow-burn for some years. Also without a less dedicated anti-communist Pope, the way is free in Italy for a great coalition between Christian Democrats and Communists in 1982.
In India Indira Gandhi is killed during a political rally. The Congress-Party never recovers from their defeat in 1977 and falls apart. India soon follows.
The most important death is Shah Reza Pahlevi. The Ruler Of Iran dies January 1978 under mysterious circumstances in his luxurious loft in the Swiss alps. (the reasons for his death involved a young swiss woman). This is the most important change. Iran goes through a series of riots in 1978, but many Iranians still want to give the new young Shah and a new appointed reform government a chance. So the riots never reach the critical mass for a full revolution. Iran stabilize in 1979, ruled by a coalition of the military, the bourgeoisie and the moderate clerics with the Shah as figurehead. 1985 it has an image as a nation very close to be a full developed power.
No Iranian Revolution has major influence on the economic and political development of the world.
There is no second oil price shock (even the price still rises slowly over the next years) and just a small recession in 1982 (but stagflation still stays an issue).
Naturally this all helps Carter to get reelected in 1980 (some claim Carter would have been more vulnerable, if the GOP hadn´t nominated an unelectable right-winger like Reagan).
But the most important change is, that there is no soviet Invasion in Afghanistan. With a stable, pro-western, well-armed Iran around the corner, the Politburo consider a Invasion to risky.
Without Afghanistan it don´t come to what in OTL was seen as the Second Cold War. Detente keeps going on and ironically the general public is in the early 1980th much less afraid of a nuclear war then IOTL.
That´s not in all cases a good thing: In Yugoslavia Tito still dies in 1980. Without the war scare in the early 1980th his successors handle the internal conflicts even less carefully, so that the great meltdown already happens in 1985.
No Second Cold War leads also to changes in other surprising places.
IOTL in the late Seventies an agreement of an early independence for Namibia seemed to be close. But in the end South Africa broke off the negations, probably because they thought in this critical time, the West wouldn´t press the issue.
But ITTL the agreement comes together and Namibia becomes independent in 1980......and soon after that a SWAPO-One-Party-Dictatorship.
Other changes occur in Egypt. The peace treaty with Israel still comes together, but with Iran still the main US-ally in the region, Egypt receive just little US-support. Population and military are disappointed and after bread-price-riots Sadat is ousted through a coup. The new rulers still respect the peace treaty, but Egypt drifts back into the Soviet camp.
Some things don´t change.
Maggie Thatcher still wins in 1979. But her government set different priorities in the defense policy. Navy and Air Defense is strengthen, but the Challenger tank (and Channel 4) is cut. A stronger RN keeps a presence in the South Atlantic and prevents the Falkland War.
In West Germany Helmut Schmidt still defeats Franz Josef Strauß in 1980. Actually, Schmidt victory is bigger and the SPD becomes the strongest party.
Through this and without a major economic crisis the social-liberal government stay stable till 1984.
There are no new US-missiles stationed in Western Europe (which is also helpful for Schmidt to keep his party and his coalition together). There is still a NATO-Double-track-decision, but in the SALT III-agreement of 1982 (SALT II had been ratified) the numbers of soviet SS-20 missiles is limited on 150.
West Germany’s new Army structure for the 1980th is a bit different to OTL. Less tank-heavy, but the new Leopard II get deployed faster.
In France Mitterrand still gets President in 1981. Without the Second Cold War he keeps his people front government till 1985. Mitterrand and Schmidt don´t get along very good. There are no new european initiatives. That´s one of the reasons why Moscow believes, France would stay neutral in a european conflict.
Even without a Second Cold War things starts to get colder in international relationships. There is a growing disappointed with Detente in the western public. It would be even worse, if the public knew some backgrounds.
In 1981 the so called North-Sea-Hostage crisis happens. The public sees it just as terror attack and don´t know about the secret connection to the mysterious death of Yuri Andropov. Even in 1987 it is still a close secret, that a extremely dangerous East-West-Confrontation happened during the Crisis (that´s the reason the crisis isn´t mentioned in the book). Kremlin-intrigues during the Crisis allowed president Carter for a short time an inside view in the Politburo. He found it very disturbing how casual the Politburo discusses the possibility of an invasion of Western Europe and how few option he would have in such a case. The result is the Carter build-up. He is not comparable to the Reagan-build-up IOTL, but because it concentrate more on the Army and the Air Force and less on the Navy and Strategic forces, it is very successful in bringing the US conventional forces back in shape. Carter invest a lot of political capital to reestablish the Draft in 1982. On US pressure NATO imply a new defense strategy similar to OTL FOFA. In 1985 the US forces are in good shape. Differences to OTL are, that the Reforger divisions doesn´t need round-out brigades from the National Guard and the Army Reserve, but also that ACR`s still have at least one squadron of M551 Sheridan.
The Carter-build-up has a unwanted side effect. Together with Carters decision not to station Neutron-bombs and new missiles in Europe, the Soviets interpret it as a sign, that the US start to denuclearizing their military strategy, so from their POV the chances.
The build-up doesn´t happen in all places. Without the Second Cold War, Carter follows on with his OTL plan to retreat all US-land-forces from South Korea. The US-allies in the region, especially Japan, are disturbed about this. Will the US in the end totally give up their presence in the region? Japans government decides, that they need in this case much better relationships with China. In the next years the Japanese swallow a lot of their pride and over excuses for Japans war crimes in WWII. The Chinese, interested in technology and investment from Japan, except this. Till 1985 the japans-chinese relationships grow really cordial.
In Moscow, Chernenko becomes Brezhnev successor 1982. The Politburo becomes more and more dominated by hardliners and cold warriors.
In the USA, the midterm-elections of 1982 are, especially in the South, a republican year. In South Carolina an US-representative called Thompson surprisingly defeats the popular democratic governor. Political pundits take an interest in Thompson, who seems like the perfect compromise candidate between the conservative and the moderate wing of the GOP.
Maggie Thatcher still gets reelected in 1983. But without the Falkland-war and without Labors sharp turn to the left, she got a much smaller majority then IOTL. So she tries to avoid in the next years a confrontation with the Trade Unions.
In the first half of 1985, as the thread of war already looms about Europe, Thatcher calls for the development of a new british war plan. It´s decided, that Britain will concentrate all his reserves in West Germany to form a II. British corps. The name for the war plan is Lion.
1984! The countdown to war starts in Poland.
In West Germany the Federal Elections in October 1984 are practically a repeat of 1976. The chancellor is Helmut Schmidt, the CDU-candidate is Helmut Kohl and even the result is similar. Kohl comes close, but just not close enough to win.
In November 1984 Governor Thompson wins the US presidential elections. Moscow decides to teach him a lesson. Things go out of hands.
March 1985: Chernenko dies. Pandemonium in the Politburo. The great plan starts to go wrong. The UAR (United Arabic Republics) are horrible unstable. If the Americans and the Iranians intervene, all will fall apart. The arabian oil will be lost and the Soviet Union will be humiliated. And the counterrevolution will rise their ugly head again. The peace party goes weaker and weaker. Starting the war without a nuclear first strike is already seen as a moderate compromise position.
June 1985: Its a lie! The Yugoslavian Operation is a limited operation, claims the Chief of Staff, if it is successful, the Socialist Bloc will be secured and peace will be saved. The general mobilization is just needed to be prepared for all options. The Politburo members know it is a lie, but they want to believe it. If the general mobilization starts, it means war. It is just to disruptive for the economy to be called off again. Yugoslavia is just needed, that the Americans fire the first shot.
End of July 1985: Italy is in chaos. Strikes and protest against the NATO-alert. Reservist refuse the mobilization order. The parliament is blocked, the government has resigned. The Leader of the Communist Party is no hardliner, he believes in Democracy. But he knows, that there is still the “Deep Party”, the old Stalinist, which now see their time coming. And he thinks, the only other option will be a coup from the Right. And then nuclear fire over Italy. He gives his approval. Some days later the President of the Republic appoints him premier minister. Every thing strictly legal. The Communists have taken over. Italy will not fight.
Fourth August 1985: Day X
Next: After the War
(And other books with 1970th future tropes)
John Hacketts „The Third World War!“, published in 1978, is one of the most famous example for a fictional conventional war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
Mostly forgotten about the book is, that it also tried to predict the political world of 1985 and failed at it spectacularly. Practical the book was in the minute it was published already Alternate History.
In this scenario I want to show how we could get to this different 1985 and how the world will develop after that. “The Third World War!” will be canon, a book written ITTL by a couple of British soldiers in early 1987. Hacketts sequel “The Third World War! The Untold Story” will be not canon, but some elements from this book will be used. I will also use ideas from books written at a similar time and with similar ideas like Hacketts book, ideas I call 1970th future tropes. This books will be: Paul Erdman “Crash 79” and “the last Days of America”, Frederick Forsyth “the Devils Alternative”, Anthony Burgess “1985”, Alfred Coppel “the Apocalypse Brigade” and “the Hastings Conspiracy”, Colin Forbes “The Stone Leopard”.
….................
Before the War
1978 - 1985
Its 1978 and one survival and two death change history forever.
In Rome Pope John Paul I. has his heart attack at day and not at night. Help is around, the Pope gets reanimated and survives.
The “Smiling Pope” will lives on several years, often ill and tired, mostly signing what the Curia gives him. There will be, at least till 1985, no Polish Pope. The emerging Polish Crisis will stay on slow-burn for some years. Also without a less dedicated anti-communist Pope, the way is free in Italy for a great coalition between Christian Democrats and Communists in 1982.
In India Indira Gandhi is killed during a political rally. The Congress-Party never recovers from their defeat in 1977 and falls apart. India soon follows.
The most important death is Shah Reza Pahlevi. The Ruler Of Iran dies January 1978 under mysterious circumstances in his luxurious loft in the Swiss alps. (the reasons for his death involved a young swiss woman). This is the most important change. Iran goes through a series of riots in 1978, but many Iranians still want to give the new young Shah and a new appointed reform government a chance. So the riots never reach the critical mass for a full revolution. Iran stabilize in 1979, ruled by a coalition of the military, the bourgeoisie and the moderate clerics with the Shah as figurehead. 1985 it has an image as a nation very close to be a full developed power.
No Iranian Revolution has major influence on the economic and political development of the world.
There is no second oil price shock (even the price still rises slowly over the next years) and just a small recession in 1982 (but stagflation still stays an issue).
Naturally this all helps Carter to get reelected in 1980 (some claim Carter would have been more vulnerable, if the GOP hadn´t nominated an unelectable right-winger like Reagan).
But the most important change is, that there is no soviet Invasion in Afghanistan. With a stable, pro-western, well-armed Iran around the corner, the Politburo consider a Invasion to risky.
Without Afghanistan it don´t come to what in OTL was seen as the Second Cold War. Detente keeps going on and ironically the general public is in the early 1980th much less afraid of a nuclear war then IOTL.
That´s not in all cases a good thing: In Yugoslavia Tito still dies in 1980. Without the war scare in the early 1980th his successors handle the internal conflicts even less carefully, so that the great meltdown already happens in 1985.
No Second Cold War leads also to changes in other surprising places.
IOTL in the late Seventies an agreement of an early independence for Namibia seemed to be close. But in the end South Africa broke off the negations, probably because they thought in this critical time, the West wouldn´t press the issue.
But ITTL the agreement comes together and Namibia becomes independent in 1980......and soon after that a SWAPO-One-Party-Dictatorship.
Other changes occur in Egypt. The peace treaty with Israel still comes together, but with Iran still the main US-ally in the region, Egypt receive just little US-support. Population and military are disappointed and after bread-price-riots Sadat is ousted through a coup. The new rulers still respect the peace treaty, but Egypt drifts back into the Soviet camp.
Some things don´t change.
Maggie Thatcher still wins in 1979. But her government set different priorities in the defense policy. Navy and Air Defense is strengthen, but the Challenger tank (and Channel 4) is cut. A stronger RN keeps a presence in the South Atlantic and prevents the Falkland War.
In West Germany Helmut Schmidt still defeats Franz Josef Strauß in 1980. Actually, Schmidt victory is bigger and the SPD becomes the strongest party.
Through this and without a major economic crisis the social-liberal government stay stable till 1984.
There are no new US-missiles stationed in Western Europe (which is also helpful for Schmidt to keep his party and his coalition together). There is still a NATO-Double-track-decision, but in the SALT III-agreement of 1982 (SALT II had been ratified) the numbers of soviet SS-20 missiles is limited on 150.
West Germany’s new Army structure for the 1980th is a bit different to OTL. Less tank-heavy, but the new Leopard II get deployed faster.
In France Mitterrand still gets President in 1981. Without the Second Cold War he keeps his people front government till 1985. Mitterrand and Schmidt don´t get along very good. There are no new european initiatives. That´s one of the reasons why Moscow believes, France would stay neutral in a european conflict.
Even without a Second Cold War things starts to get colder in international relationships. There is a growing disappointed with Detente in the western public. It would be even worse, if the public knew some backgrounds.
In 1981 the so called North-Sea-Hostage crisis happens. The public sees it just as terror attack and don´t know about the secret connection to the mysterious death of Yuri Andropov. Even in 1987 it is still a close secret, that a extremely dangerous East-West-Confrontation happened during the Crisis (that´s the reason the crisis isn´t mentioned in the book). Kremlin-intrigues during the Crisis allowed president Carter for a short time an inside view in the Politburo. He found it very disturbing how casual the Politburo discusses the possibility of an invasion of Western Europe and how few option he would have in such a case. The result is the Carter build-up. He is not comparable to the Reagan-build-up IOTL, but because it concentrate more on the Army and the Air Force and less on the Navy and Strategic forces, it is very successful in bringing the US conventional forces back in shape. Carter invest a lot of political capital to reestablish the Draft in 1982. On US pressure NATO imply a new defense strategy similar to OTL FOFA. In 1985 the US forces are in good shape. Differences to OTL are, that the Reforger divisions doesn´t need round-out brigades from the National Guard and the Army Reserve, but also that ACR`s still have at least one squadron of M551 Sheridan.
The Carter-build-up has a unwanted side effect. Together with Carters decision not to station Neutron-bombs and new missiles in Europe, the Soviets interpret it as a sign, that the US start to denuclearizing their military strategy, so from their POV the chances.
The build-up doesn´t happen in all places. Without the Second Cold War, Carter follows on with his OTL plan to retreat all US-land-forces from South Korea. The US-allies in the region, especially Japan, are disturbed about this. Will the US in the end totally give up their presence in the region? Japans government decides, that they need in this case much better relationships with China. In the next years the Japanese swallow a lot of their pride and over excuses for Japans war crimes in WWII. The Chinese, interested in technology and investment from Japan, except this. Till 1985 the japans-chinese relationships grow really cordial.
In Moscow, Chernenko becomes Brezhnev successor 1982. The Politburo becomes more and more dominated by hardliners and cold warriors.
In the USA, the midterm-elections of 1982 are, especially in the South, a republican year. In South Carolina an US-representative called Thompson surprisingly defeats the popular democratic governor. Political pundits take an interest in Thompson, who seems like the perfect compromise candidate between the conservative and the moderate wing of the GOP.
Maggie Thatcher still gets reelected in 1983. But without the Falkland-war and without Labors sharp turn to the left, she got a much smaller majority then IOTL. So she tries to avoid in the next years a confrontation with the Trade Unions.
In the first half of 1985, as the thread of war already looms about Europe, Thatcher calls for the development of a new british war plan. It´s decided, that Britain will concentrate all his reserves in West Germany to form a II. British corps. The name for the war plan is Lion.
1984! The countdown to war starts in Poland.
In West Germany the Federal Elections in October 1984 are practically a repeat of 1976. The chancellor is Helmut Schmidt, the CDU-candidate is Helmut Kohl and even the result is similar. Kohl comes close, but just not close enough to win.
In November 1984 Governor Thompson wins the US presidential elections. Moscow decides to teach him a lesson. Things go out of hands.
March 1985: Chernenko dies. Pandemonium in the Politburo. The great plan starts to go wrong. The UAR (United Arabic Republics) are horrible unstable. If the Americans and the Iranians intervene, all will fall apart. The arabian oil will be lost and the Soviet Union will be humiliated. And the counterrevolution will rise their ugly head again. The peace party goes weaker and weaker. Starting the war without a nuclear first strike is already seen as a moderate compromise position.
June 1985: Its a lie! The Yugoslavian Operation is a limited operation, claims the Chief of Staff, if it is successful, the Socialist Bloc will be secured and peace will be saved. The general mobilization is just needed to be prepared for all options. The Politburo members know it is a lie, but they want to believe it. If the general mobilization starts, it means war. It is just to disruptive for the economy to be called off again. Yugoslavia is just needed, that the Americans fire the first shot.
End of July 1985: Italy is in chaos. Strikes and protest against the NATO-alert. Reservist refuse the mobilization order. The parliament is blocked, the government has resigned. The Leader of the Communist Party is no hardliner, he believes in Democracy. But he knows, that there is still the “Deep Party”, the old Stalinist, which now see their time coming. And he thinks, the only other option will be a coup from the Right. And then nuclear fire over Italy. He gives his approval. Some days later the President of the Republic appoints him premier minister. Every thing strictly legal. The Communists have taken over. Italy will not fight.
Fourth August 1985: Day X
Next: After the War