Assume John Habsburg (19 October 1537-20 March 1538) son of emperor Charles V do not die as infant. How would Charles split his lands having two surviving sons instead of one? Spain for Philip is obvious, John would likely inherit Netherlands/Burgundy (so Philip's marriage to Mary Tudor is affected-he could not promise Nethetlands to their potential child if his brother is destined to get it). But the most interesting question is Imperial title-throne of HRE was elective in theory, but de facto hereditary in Habsburg dynasty. IOTL Charles wanted his only son to inherit his both Spanish and Imperial crowns, but electors didn't liked idea of another wandering emperor, so he abdicated in favor of his brother Ferdinand (who is also one of electors as Czech king), but he still hoped that Philip could get Imperial throne after Ferdinand's death ( is it possible that Charles could agree for HRE throne going to Ferdinand hoping for John to succeede him later). ITTL Charles would likely want his younger son as emperor, which should be acceptable for electors-John would be raised as Spaniard like his brother, but Ferdinand was also Spanish born, so if uncle assimilated into German culture over time nephew also can.
So who is more likely to get the throne of HRE aftet Charles?
 
I would not call John more German-he, just like Ferdinand was born in Spain, and would be raised there, although he would propably spend some time in Netherlands later as father would like to prepare him to rule these lands.
 
ITTL Charles could make condition, that he will abdicate only if John would succeede him (so he demanded Ferdinand to stay out of election), Ferdinand would either agree or would need to wait until brother's death-second option means serious conflict within House of Habsburg (and happy France and Ottomans ;) )
 
As duke of Burgundy and lord of Netherlands I think he could marry princess of Lorraine or even princess of Cleves (dukes of Cleves were waving between Protestantism and Catholicism so I don't think it is ruled out). But the most important question is-will he stay mere duke of Burgundy or become Holy Roman Emperor?
 
But the most important question is-will he stay mere duke of Burgundy or become Holy Roman Emperor?

Both? Instead of Austria being the being the center of the Habsburgs in the HRE you'll have them in Burgundy, which will provide with more than enough wealth to fund their reign.
 
As duke of Burgundy and lord of Netherlands I think he could marry princess of Lorraine or even princess of Cleves (dukes of Cleves were waving between Protestantism and Catholicism so I don't think it is ruled out). But the most important question is-will he stay mere duke of Burgundy or become Holy Roman Emperor?

No princesses of Cleves available OTL, the first being the daughters of Wilhelm der Reiche and his Austrian wife, in the 1550s. So Wilhelm would have to have kids with his Navarrese wife for there to be a Cleves girl. There are from the Nevers branch, but they're in France, so they might be tricky.

A Lorraine girl is a possibility. Willem the Silent proposed to Dorothée/Renée de Lorraine OTL, so I could see her making a good duchess for Burgundy (especially if her brother still marries the king of France's daughter) as a way of demonstrating Lorraine's neutrality.
 
The question are will the Austrian Habsburgs be better off without the imperial crown, and could we even see their mainline go Protestant. I think the Burgundian line will have to accept it, for no other reason that they need Bohemian support to be elected.
 
The question are will the Austrian Habsburgs be better off without the imperial crown, and could we even see their mainline go Protestant. I think the Burgundian line will have to accept it, for no other reason that they need Bohemian support to be elected.
Without Imperial crown Austrian line could focus more on Hungary, but basic question is-how Imperial election after Charles V's abdication (or maybe death ITTL?) would look like?
 
Without Imperial crown Austrian line could focus more on Hungary, but basic question is-how Imperial election after Charles V's abdication (or maybe death ITTL?) would look like?

I think we will see John having to embrace a very tolerant line to the Protestants, if he does that he can get his son elected.

Maximillian (II) will likely convert to Lutheranism, this will make his lines rule of Bohemia more stable, but also give him greater support among his subject. John will have to accept it, for no other reason that seeking conflict with Maximillian will make the other Protestant states hostile toward him. But this also mean the Counterreformation will fail in Hungary and Croatia, as the Habsburg support to upkeep the Catholic institutions allowed it to regain its control over these areas.

The results: We will likely see Hungary outside Transsylvania become Lutheran, only in Transsylvania will we see a Reformed Church do well. We will also see a split between the Croats in Slavonia-Croatia proper and the Dalmatians. This will likely lead to Dalmatians and the Bosnian Catholics becoming a separate national group (they will likely call themselves Bosniaks).

Austria will be religious split between the Austria proper and Inner Austria. Austria Proper will likely be seen as a extention of Bohemia in the same manner as Silesia was. Of course Inner Austria may be traded for the more valuable Further Austria as that lines dies out. In that case we won't see that split, and the Slovenians will become Lutherans. If the Slovenians become Lutherans and the Croats are national disconnected from the Croats in Dalmatia and Bosnia, the Slovenians and Croats will likely become a unified national group (the Croatian dialect spoken in Croatia proper are closer related to Slovenian than to standard Croatian).

I think Maximilllian line are more likely to survive if it becomes Protestant as it gives his sons a lot more potential marriage partners, and he will have a interest in creating alliance with non-Habsburgers. Of course if the main line continue its inbreeding, it's not impossible that at some point his line will be the only surviving one.
 
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