John Edwards Wins Iowa in 2008

What if former North Carolina Senator John Edwards won the Iowa Democratic Caucus of 2008? In OTL Edwards suspended his campaign on January 30th, 2008, would winning Iowa keep him in the race longer despite his affair catching up to him?
 
Everything that I've ever read about the Edwards Campaign says that his senior staffers got together and decided that should it ever look as if Edwards would be the nominee, the news of the affair would be leaked. His campaign was effectively dead after Iowa.
 
Hillary Clinton would win the nomination.

If Edwards won Iowa, he'd gain a boost but given how weak his initial support was and how close the Obama vs Clinton race was IOTL, plus the affair, his chances are very slim. Obama and Clinton compete for New Hampshire, which results in a Clinton win there and then another Clinton win in Nevada. Edwards is struggling now having come third twice and needs a South Carolina win to upend the race. But Clinton amasses a coalition of South Carolina whites and blacks to eek out a narrow victory over Obama and Edwards. Heading into Super Tuesday, despite her Iowa defeat, Clinton is the clear frontrunner after her New Hampshire comeback. Then in the final nail of Edwards' coffin the affair is leaked and he does very poorly on Super Tuesday. Obama does better, winning many caucuses but he is still behind Clinton. Clinton wins many black voters, who are convinced that Obama isn't able to win white voters. Hillary has a delegate lead of hundreds of delegates and wraps up the nomination.
 
Hillary Clinton would win the nomination.

If Edwards won Iowa, he'd gain a boost but given how weak his initial support was and how close the Obama vs Clinton race was IOTL, plus the affair, his chances are very slim. Obama and Clinton compete for New Hampshire, which results in a Clinton win there and then another Clinton win in Nevada. Edwards is struggling now having come third twice and needs a South Carolina win to upend the race.

This. An Edwards win in Iowa would seriously deflate Obama, who was being treated with significant skepticism by media prior to Iowa ("Can he translate these massive rallies into votes?"). Even a very narrow loss would have empowered the press to draw comparisons between Obama and Howard Dean from the previous election cycle as idealistic politicians who were unable to turn grassroots enthusiasm into votes.

It's not impossible to imagine a non-adulterous John Edwards successfully winning the nomination in '08 -- just very, very difficult. Unfortunately for him, I don't see any reason why winning Iowa would butterfly away the pending National Enquirer story about his affair with Rielle Hunter. (I don't think it needs to be said that the Rielle Hunter affair was far, far worse than an "ordinary" affair given the deteriorating health of Elizabeth Edwards and her prominent role in the campaign.)

So Edwards takes out Obama, and then Edwards implodes. Clinton wraps up the nomination very early.

Next question: could an early Clinton win in the primaries coupled with the Republican Party base's hatred of her actually drive the Republican nomination to someone other than McCain?
 
Next question: could an early Clinton win in the primaries coupled with the Republican Party base's hatred of her actually drive the Republican nomination to someone other than McCain?

Probably not. Closest I can think of is butterflies somehow leading to Romney winning New Hampshire instead of McCain.
 
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