I’m an Edwards fan, so please indulge me for a few moments here.
Part I: Iowa
For months and months it had been foreseen that the battle in the Hawkeye State would come down to a match between the overnight Internet sensation Howard Dean of Vermont and Organized Labor’s favorite, Dick Gephardt. Polls had consistently shown the two in a neck and neck race for first. The interesting main battle was seen for that of third place, with the mantra that there were only three tickets out of Iowa, and one of the Johns would soon have to write the political version of a ‘Dear John’ speech for his campaign.
However with only a week to go, the dynamic of the race started to shift. The media’s incessant attacks on Howard Dean’s ‘electability’ had started to take their toll, and Gephardt’s Union supporters began looking elsewhere, sensing that even if the Gepper won Iowa, he wasn’t strong anywhere else. As in OTL, the spotlight begins to shine on the two senators named John, who had largely been left on the side of a very cold Iowa road for dead. Both begin to climb in the polls. However, Edwards (as in OTL) steals the show at a debate sponsored by the Des Moines Register on January 4th, earning him lots of 2nd looks from people who are suddenly reminded of the good ol’ days of progress and prosperity under Bill Clinton. On January 9th, Senator Tom Harkin, sensing that the media’s attacks on Dean have done too much damage, endorses Edwards for President(in OTL he endorses Dean). On Sunday, January 11th the DSM Register endorses Edwards, saying “His Time Is Nowâ€. Polls show Edwards skyrocketing to the top on the backs of the twin endorsements, with John Kerry, who had been endorsed by Christie Vilsack (and by association Governor Vilsack) close behind. Gephardt refrains from attacking Dean as much because he realizes that he’ll probably be looked at as a VP candidate by all three, who are bunched up in the DSM Register poll days before the election. However, buoyed by ‘the Deal’ made with Kucinich and his supporters, Edwards begins to look like the comeback kid. On election night the results look like this (OTL numbers in parenthesis):
Edwards 31 (33)
Kerry 30 (38)
Dean 24 (18)
Gephardt 15 (11)
Kucinich 1 (1)
The campaigns quickly move on to another freezing state, New Hampshire, with Edwards and Kerry both claiming the big ‘mo’. Unlike in OTL, Gephardt decides to try and work a miracle out of the Feb.3 states, where he’ll almost certainly win his home state(and the biggest prize, Missouri).
Tomorrow: NH through VA/TN
Day After: Super Tuesday
Day After That: Southern Tuesday and Afterwards
Part I: Iowa
For months and months it had been foreseen that the battle in the Hawkeye State would come down to a match between the overnight Internet sensation Howard Dean of Vermont and Organized Labor’s favorite, Dick Gephardt. Polls had consistently shown the two in a neck and neck race for first. The interesting main battle was seen for that of third place, with the mantra that there were only three tickets out of Iowa, and one of the Johns would soon have to write the political version of a ‘Dear John’ speech for his campaign.
However with only a week to go, the dynamic of the race started to shift. The media’s incessant attacks on Howard Dean’s ‘electability’ had started to take their toll, and Gephardt’s Union supporters began looking elsewhere, sensing that even if the Gepper won Iowa, he wasn’t strong anywhere else. As in OTL, the spotlight begins to shine on the two senators named John, who had largely been left on the side of a very cold Iowa road for dead. Both begin to climb in the polls. However, Edwards (as in OTL) steals the show at a debate sponsored by the Des Moines Register on January 4th, earning him lots of 2nd looks from people who are suddenly reminded of the good ol’ days of progress and prosperity under Bill Clinton. On January 9th, Senator Tom Harkin, sensing that the media’s attacks on Dean have done too much damage, endorses Edwards for President(in OTL he endorses Dean). On Sunday, January 11th the DSM Register endorses Edwards, saying “His Time Is Nowâ€. Polls show Edwards skyrocketing to the top on the backs of the twin endorsements, with John Kerry, who had been endorsed by Christie Vilsack (and by association Governor Vilsack) close behind. Gephardt refrains from attacking Dean as much because he realizes that he’ll probably be looked at as a VP candidate by all three, who are bunched up in the DSM Register poll days before the election. However, buoyed by ‘the Deal’ made with Kucinich and his supporters, Edwards begins to look like the comeback kid. On election night the results look like this (OTL numbers in parenthesis):
Edwards 31 (33)
Kerry 30 (38)
Dean 24 (18)
Gephardt 15 (11)
Kucinich 1 (1)
The campaigns quickly move on to another freezing state, New Hampshire, with Edwards and Kerry both claiming the big ‘mo’. Unlike in OTL, Gephardt decides to try and work a miracle out of the Feb.3 states, where he’ll almost certainly win his home state(and the biggest prize, Missouri).
Tomorrow: NH through VA/TN
Day After: Super Tuesday
Day After That: Southern Tuesday and Afterwards
