John Browns Raid a success

Lets say John Brown manages to follow his plan to how he wants it
After managing to gather more volunteer's and kill Robert E Lee and force the marines to surrender. He use's those rifles and pikes he captured at the arsenal, in addition to those he brought along, to arm rebellious slaves striking terror in the slaveholders in Virginia. On the first night of action, 200-500 black slaves join his line. He sends agents to nearby plantations, rallying the slaves. He holds Harpers Ferry for a short time, due to confusion in federal ranks, Allowing many volunteers, white and black, to join him. He then moves rapidly southward, sending out armed bands along the way. They free more slaves, obtain food, horses and hostages, and destroy slaveholders' morale. Brown follows the Appalachian Mountains south into Tennessee and even Alabama, the heart of the South, making forays into the plains on either side.

So what happens next?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Money trumps idealism, as per usual

The monetary value of the enslaved was the largest single "asset" in the US in the early 19th Century, after land itself; "What Hath God Wrought: The Transformation of America, 1815-1848" by Daniel Walker Howe is an excellent survey that lays out the economic and political strengths of the slave party vis a vis abolitionism and the Free Soilers in the period just before the 1850s.

Well worth reading.

Best,
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
After managing to gather more volunteer's

From where?

and kill Robert E Lee and force the marines to surrender.

A bunch of ill-organized and untrained volunteers against a force of United States Marines commanded by one of the greatest military geniuses in American history? Get real.

He sends agents to nearby plantations

There weren't any plantations nearby.

He then moves rapidly southward, sending out armed bands along the way. They free more slaves, obtain food, horses and hostages, and destroy slaveholders' morale. Brown follows the Appalachian Mountains south into Tennessee and even Alabama, the heart of the South, making forays into the plains on either side.

How do these bands communicate with one another? How are they supplied with food? Once the ammunition captured at Harper's Ferry runs out, how do they obtain more? How are they able to defeat the militia units which, unlike them, are organized and trained? Answer: they can't.

So what happens next?

Nothing. This scenario is completely implausible. Brown himself probably never thought it had a chance of succeeding and was likely simply trying to get himself killed in the abolitionist cause.
 
ASB. They'd be destroyed by troops or militia the first time they came across them. John Brown knew he was going for martyrdom.
 
The more successful Brown is the more lightly he is to be seen as a dangerous "Terrorist" and sooner or later the rebellion will be ended by federal troops.
This could give the abolitionist movement a bad name for a long time.
 
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For a maximal success for a slave revolt in the US, look at Nat Turner's Rebellion. Killed a few dozen whites, got crushed as soon as significant forces were concentrated. There's a reason Frederick Douglass wanted nothing to do with the raid. The US is nothing like Haiti, demographically or geographically.

But if we allow for somewhat more success than OTL, we get a reaction much like OTL: brief panic in the South, accusations of abolitionist and Republican conspiracies, increased polarization and propaganda battles.
 
So what happens next?

The simple answer is you get a lot of dead slaves, and I don't just mean the ones that actually rebel. Any slave uprising would make the southerners jittery. You get some northerner inciting them like this, and it might even hurt the abolishionist cause (at least to those people who were neutral towards the debate).
 
Well I misused my words
I was thinking what would happen to the Civil war especially with Lee dead and the Abolitionist movement now that a Slave uprising has occoured if Brown was successful somehow (because i agree he would have been crushed)
 
Well I misused my words
I was thinking what would happen to the Civil war especially with Lee dead and the Abolitionist movement now that a Slave uprising has occoured if Brown was successful somehow (because i agree he would have been crushed)

Assuming Lincoln's still elected in 1860 and the Civil War begins as it did OTL, then Lee's absence could be significant for the Confederacy. One of the questions becomes who would replace Johnston after Seven Pines (again, assuming it happens). Then again, the Confederacy might be hamstrung by that point already - it was Lee who secured reinforcements for Jackson in the Shenandoah valley. Without those, even Jackson would be crushed under the weight of sheer numbers; McDowell's corp would then be free to move south and help McClellan out.
 
Well, that depends on how successful the rebellion actually is. A localized one, and all you get is another Nat Turner, as others have said. However, a nationwide one, with slaves all over the south rising up.... Would also be crushed. Horrifically. There would simply be no way to turn this into Haiti. John Brown might have actually seriously damaged slavery if this happened, because there would be so few slaves left.Basically everyone's worst case scenario.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Assuming Lincoln's still elected in 1860 and the Civil War begins as it did OTL, then Lee's absence could be significant for the Confederacy. One of the questions becomes who would replace Johnston after Seven Pines (again, assuming it happens). Then again, the Confederacy might be hamstrung by that point already - it was Lee who secured reinforcements for Jackson in the Shenandoah valley. Without those, even Jackson would be crushed under the weight of sheer numbers; McDowell's corp would then be free to move south and help McClellan out.

Some would argue that not having Lee would actually help the Confederacy. His strategic concept of winning the war through the Cannae-like destruction of the main Union field army was not achievable and cost the Confederates gruesome casualties. You'd have fewer episodes like Malvern Hill, the useless battle of Sharpsburg, Pickett's Charge, or the senseless frontal assault on the Brock Road during the Battle of the Wilderness.

Lee was a good general on a tactical level and a brilliant manager of men. But his strategic view was limited and unhelpful to the South.
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
With the Marines and Lee dead, the militia that had assembled would have lynched the lot of them. That's why the marines were sent there to begin with: Maintain order and finish off John Brown.
 
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