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I read a while a go that the best chance for the CSA would have been, to seced a few years earlier, as the presidents preceding Lincoln might have let them go without a fight.
So lets assume it happens that way.
And further assume both the USA and CSA stick to having a small peactime military.

Now: Could John Brown (or a spiritual successor of his) stage a successful revolt against the CSA that leds to a guerilla war and ultimately to the creation of a seperate black state (like JB and his coconspirators envisioned)?
The main difference to Browns OTL attemp would be that he would have supply bases and sanctuaries accross the US border.
Maybe even a invasion of the South by abolotionist/free black volunteers (similar to the Fenian raids into Canada).

If its not possible in the 1860s what about the 1930s or 1960s?



(unrelated: Am I the only one he reminds of a vampire count?)
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