The chances of a much stronger and more assertive Entente Cordiale, or even a Franco-British Union, are much higher ITTL. Britain and France are going to be rather dissatisfied with their disadvantaged position vis a vis the US and USSR. Also included in this alliance, perhaps an expanded Entente, will be Luxembourg, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, and Norway.
Spain will be too distasteful for a while, but if the the external threats to Western Europe are great enough, some sort of understanding with Franco is probably possible. Portugal has less fascistic stigma, not having been aided by the Nazis, so their inclusion is also likely.
Italy depends on internal politics - if Britain feels threatened enough, they may enforce the Kingdom of Italy through an occupation of at least some areas of the country. However, the US may 'reorganise' parts of Italy for its own benefit in parallel. Ireland may join if it can get over its historical antagonism with Britain.
Sweden, Switzerland and Liechtenstein probably stay neutral; they have little reason to change this stance. Finland is... well... Finlandised, unless Trotsky is very insistent on perpetual revolution. The Balkans are a mystery - Greece will probably end up in the American rather than Franco-British sphere, because the UK had to pass its responsibilities to America IOTL. The rest are probable Soviet satellites, except perhaps for Yugoslavia.
Canada, Australia and New Zealand will not be impressed with American authoritarianism. This will probably see a more cohesive Commonwealth bloc, with Canada especially seeking assurances (I know I would if I lived next door to Stalin). Perhaps a belated form of 'Imperial Federation' could emerge from the British Empire - India will leave, but elements within Malaysia and the Gulf States, for instance, favoured continued ties to Britain. A similar theme within the French Union could also take place, though the Indochinese and the Algerians will probably seek their independence also. Any 'Imperial' bloc will need to be based on willing participation, otherwise American or Soviet-backed independence movements will make holding the colonies unsustainable.
3 way Cold War, with a bit more cooperation between the US and Europe than between Europe and the USSR?