Fair enough. Like Hood, he was good enough so long as he didn't have overall command of an army?
Pretty much. Neither of them really had the brains to conduct the type of strategy required for a overall commander. But given a task on a battlefield, where they had a definate order to follow, & both seemed quite diligent.
Of course it's a mistake. The Confederacy didn't have to fire the first shot.
War was coming anyway, regardless who fired first.
It is a mistake because AS Johnston was not the military genius Davis though he was. It's Johnston's fault Confederate troops were initally badly dispersed, allowing Grant to gobble up the forts and it's his fault that when he did finally concentrate for Shiloh, he left New Orleans wide open.
AS was better than what else was on offer. And some senior commander had to be sent out west. AS thus inherited the mess that was the western theatre because, basically, he wasn't sent out earlier. It was that idiot Polk, who invaded Kentucky, ensuring the forts you speak of were spread out, whilst it was Bragg who suggested bringing the bulk of the New Orleans garrsion to fight at Shiloh. None of this was AS's doing.
Lucius B Northrup is probably the most important Civil War figure that hardly anyone has heard of.
The Confederacy was largely agricultural and one of the biggest sources of cotton in the world. Yet the Confederate armies were often half-starved and poorly clothed. Lucius Northrop's responsibility was to supply those armies with food and clothing and he failed miserably. some of the Confederate advance at Shiloh was blunted by hungry Confederate soldiers stopping to loot food; the initial clash at Gettysburg may have occurred because barefoot Confederate troops were trying to find shoes; Lee started Chancellorsville without Longstreet and much of his artillery and cavalry because those troops had been sent to look for food; and Hood's troops would have really appreciated boots, coats, and adequate food when they were caught in an ice storm outside Nashville.
For contrast, the Confederacy was not an industrial power, yet other men made sure Confederate Armies had weapons and ammunition. When Lee's army surrendered at Appomatox they still had 75 rounds of ammunition per man even though most of them hadn't eaten in days.
If you want to correct all these problems, then you need Jesus Christ on your side conducting miracles. No mortal, regardless how good, was going to be able to counter them within a handful of years. In fact considering the dauntless task the Confederacy had, in finding war making materiel, from here, there, & everywhere, they did very well all things considered. But they could had moved a few personnel around. Like Bragg would have made for a good Quartermaster General. Likewise Joe would have done well in such a role. But picking out this Northrup character is dubious, at best. The real villan here is Lee as he always demanded getting everything first & foremost at the expense of the rest of the country. But, oh no, we can't vilify Bobby Lee, so everyone else gets the blame for Lee's mistakes.