Joanna the Drowned

In 1494 Joanna, second daughter of Catholic Monarchs later known as Joanna the Mad barely avoided death when her mule was taken by current during crossing Tagus river in Aranjuez (she was saved by stable boy). Say that in ATL she was less lucky and drowned.
So would her younger sister Mary replace her as Duchess of Burgundy? She'll be 15 years old in 1497 so she could marry Philip around the same time Joanna did IOTL.
If so after death of her other siblings-John and Isabella (if their deaths are not butterflied away), Mary and Catherine are only living children of Catholic Monarchs. I doubt in such situation Cat is going to marry Arthur-when they were bethroted Catherine had brother and three older sisters, now she is really close to Castilian throne. I think CoA is going to marry Manuel of Portugal instead (alternatively if marriage of Mary and Philip Habsburg is not finalised before deaths of Isabella and Juan Mary became heir to the throne before getting married, in such case she's going to marry Manuel like IOTL).
So with Mary (who had no problems with menthal health) replacing Joanna we have result a bit similar to "Joanna not so Mad" thread, but with additional butterflies in Portugal and England.
How would Henry VII react if CoA is refused for his son?
 
If Maria becomes the next princess of Asturias then she and Manuel are gonna make a interesting power couple toghether, but she might needs some steeling in her spine to be queen of castile, if she has a son or two then her position is rock solid. Might Philip marry a jagellion instead?
 
I'd preffer scenario where Mary replaced Joanna and Catherine replaced Mary. I think that if Catherine is not available Henry VII may look for candidates for his daughter-in-law in emperor's family-Max had Lancastrian blood in his veins and with Trastamara-Habsburg and Tudor-Habsburg marriages the three Houses are still closely connected. So would Henry ask for widowed Margaret Habsburg for his son? Or for one of emperor's Bavarian nieces?
It is likely that Artie would simply die before daddy finds wife for him.
Another question: if Cat is not going to England would Warwick avoid execution? He was executed for Ferdinand's request to secure throne for Arthur and Catherine, if Cat stays in Iberia Ferdinand has no reason to care about Warwick's fate.
 
I'd preffer scenario where Mary replaced Joanna and Catherine replaced Mary. I think that if Catherine is not available Henry VII may look for candidates for his daughter-in-law in emperor's family-Max had Lancastrian blood in his veins and with Trastamara-Habsburg and Tudor-Habsburg marriages the three Houses are still closely connected. So would Henry ask for widowed Margaret Habsburg for his son? Or for one of emperor's Bavarian nieces?
It is likely that Artie would simply die before daddy finds wife for him.
Another question: if Cat is not going to England would Warwick avoid execution? He was executed for Ferdinand's request to secure throne for Arthur and Catherine, if Cat stays in Iberia Ferdinand has no reason to care about Warwick's fate.

Regarding Artie marrying Margarethe of Austria, just prevent her from marrying the duke of Savoy. OTL the stranded Philipp promised her with a fat dowry to Henry VII. Gretl refused and Philipp didn't live long enough to enforce it. She refused any marriage after her second widowhood, so, if she's still free, Henry might (and Fernando might encourage) look at the dowager princess of the Asturias if Catalina's unavailable.
 
If Arthur marries Margaret and dies few months after wedding like IOTL she'd be broken just like IOTL and would refuse to marry again. Considering that her two husbands died short after wedding Henry VII may think she brings bad luck.
If marriage talks are not finished before Arthur's death and eventually Margaret marries Duke of Savoy and her marriage ends like IOTL she'll be propably viewed as cursed.
 
What about Margaret of Austria marrying Vladislaus II of Bohemia and Anne of Foix Candale or Anne of Navarre marrying Arthur or the OTL Henry VIII..

Perhaps also have the daughter of Margaret also survive as well..
 
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Maximilian offered Margaret's hand to Vladislaus in 1493, adding some unacceptable demands (Max wanted to be made viceroy of Hungary when Vladislaus would move to Augsburg or Nürnberg). Not going to happen-fight for Hungarian throne was one of few moments, when Vladislaus showed determination and energy, he's not going to ceede Hungary.
So we could assume that Cat is going to Portugal instead to England, there would be talks between Henry VII and Max about marriage of Arthur and Margaret, if Arthur really died from cancer his death is not butterflied away so marriage is not finalised before his death, but having prospect of English marriage for Margaret Max would not marry her to Savoy, so she is only one time widowed, could be convinced to marry Henry VII.
Then we have Mary and Philip. Say they have several daughters but only one son. Philip could still die young if theory about his diabetes is true, say he did, and his son dies even younger in 1510, around age 10. Now Max is last male Habsburg left, desperate to remarry. What options he has? IOTL he was proposed Elizabeth of Poland, youngest sister of Vladislaus of Hungary and Sigismund of Poland (born 1482)-such marriage could give his potential son claims to Hungarian and Bohemian throne), but his main concern should be Burgundian inheritance now, so he could look for English marriage instead-he need ally against French attemps to take Netherlands and need to prevent option of Tudors claiming Burgundian Inheritance for themselves (especially if H7 had son with Margaret). OTL Mary Tudor would be marriagable at this point.
 
Extiction of Habsburgs would cause storm of butterflies so let's try something easier.
Between death of Juan and Arthur IMHO there is enough time to marry Margaret again. Two times widow would still refuse to marry for the third time ITTL, so let's say that Max' oldest granddaughter would marry Henry VIII instead. So we need to know something about Philip and Mary's kids:
-Eleanor, born 1499, m. Henry VIII of England
-Isabella, born 1500, m. Christian II of Denmark
-Charles (1502-1505)
-Ferdinand, born 1503, King of Spain, Holy Roman Emperor, m. Anna of Bohemia and Hungary (price for electoral vote from Jagiellons in imperial election)
-Joanna, born 1506, m. Louis II of Hungary
-Catherine, born 1508 (Philip lives bit longer than IOTL, he and Mary took control over Castile and force Ferdinand to retreat to Aragon), m. John III of Portugal
Maximilian has male grandson, but only one, so to secure future of his house he marry again around 1511/12 to Mary Tudor, they have daughters only (Kunigunde, born 1514 and Elizabeth, born 1516). Ferdinand Habsburg, having no brothers could appoint his widowed aunt as governor of Austria ITTL.
Meanwhile in Portugal...
Manuel marries Catherine of Aragon as his second wife and is outlived by her. Without all stress she suffered in England we can assume she lives few years longer.
Surviving children of Manuel and Catherine (and rough prediction of their fate, which would likely change soon):
-Isabel, born 1502, m. Charles III of Savoy
-Mary, born 1505, m. Henry VIII of England (second wife) CoA is Henry's mother in law ;)
-John III, born 1507, King of Portugal, m. Catherine of Austria
- Ferdinand II, born 1510, King of Portugal
-Edward, born 1512, cardinal
-Joanna, born 1515, m. Francis II of France

Ferdinand the Catholic is mere King of Aragon during last years of his life, still has no son with Germaine (If he did he'd go fully to the French side likely) and switches between France and Empire even more than IOTL. No united Spain (at least for few years) means that France do better during Italian Wars.
There is still Congress of Vienna in 1515. Fall of Smolensk would break Sigismund and force him to look for reconciliation with Habsburgs, but Bohemia and Hungary are not going to fall into Habsburgs' hands-one man would not manage such wast empire. But with different queen of Hungary (IOTL Mary of Austria was likely sterile, at least she supposed that she was, Louis OTOH had illegitimate son, at least he belived it was his child) Jagiellon Hungary could continue and serve as Austria's shield against Ottomans.
 
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