Jimmy Carter assassinated

[Hermanubis]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Presidential_assassination_attempts#Jimmy_Carter

May 5, 1979: Ten minutes before Carter was about to speak at the civic center mall in Los Angeles, Raymond Lee Harvey was arrested carrying a pistol.[23] He later told authorities that he and another man were hired to create a diversion so that Mexican hit men armed with sniper rifles could kill Carter. Charges against him were dismissed for lack of evidence.[24]

So what happens if Carter is assassinated in 1979?

 

[1940LaSalle]

Scary-make that terrifying-thought for starters: President Walter Mondale.

If you thought the hostage crisis was mismanaged by Carter, Mondale's handling would be even more amateurish and inept. The only thing mitigating that would be the likelihood that the distaste for the Carter years, never mind his untimely demise, would be sufficient to propel Ronald Reagan to the Oval Office as in OTL anyhow. And in that event, the crisis would be over about the same time, albeit handled a lot worse in the interim--and while we're at it, Mondale's political career would come to an end four years sooner, which is not a bad thing at all.

A full Mondale term would likely have been replete with strident political correctness (Joan Mondale could have given Hillary Clinton lessons on how not to be subtle), coupled with naive ineptitude that would reduced America's stock in the world even further.

 

[glenn67]

1979:
After Jimmy Carter is buried in his hometown of Plains, GA, President Mondale nominates House Majority Leader Jim Wright for Vice President.

Since Mondale is a former Senator, he has a better relationship with Congress than his predecessor. After conferring with Senators Kennedy and Muskie, President Mondale decides not to allow the deposed Shah of Iran into the US for medical treatment. As a result, the US Embassy in Teheran is not seized by the Iranians.

Senator Kennedy decides not to challenge Mondale for the Democratic party nomination in 1980.

1980:
Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale and is elected the next President. Reagan sweeps the South including Vice President Wright's home state of Texas. Mondale wins his home state of Minnesota plus Hawaii, West Virginia, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia.

1984:
Gary Hart wins the Democratic nomination for President. He selects Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young as his running mate. Reagan is still re-elected. Hart wins only Colorado, Massachusetts, Hawaii and DC.

1986:
Rosalyn Carter, widow of President Jimmy Carter, is elected to the US Senate in Georgia. Thomas Foley is elected Speaker of the House. Former Vice President Jim Wright's book Reflections of a Public Man sells over 3 million copies.

1987:
The Walter Mondale Presidential Library opens in Minneapolis. President Reagan and former Presidents Mondale, Ford and Nixon attend.

1988:
Vice President George H.W. Bush defeats Andrew Young to become President of the United States. Bush wins comfortably in the electoral college but the popular vote is closer. Bush 51%, Young 49%

1992:
In a rematch, Andrew Young defeats Bush in a landslide and is elected the first African-American President. His running mate, Al Gore, becomes Vice President. Newt Gingrich is defeated for re-election.

1994:
Republicans win control of the Senate but the Democrats hang on to retain their House majority. Richard Gephart is elected Speaker of the House.

1996:
President Young is easily re-elected over Bob Dole. Former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton is elected to the Senate.

1998:
Former White House intern Monica Lewinsky enters UCLA Law School. Few people will ever hear her name.

2000:
Vice President Gore defeats Gov George W. Bush of Texas. Gore wins Florida by 20,000 votes and clinches the victory. Bill Bradley becomes Vice President. In New York, Nita Lowey is elected to the Senate to succeed Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

2001:
Acting on the recommendations of Secretary of Defense Sam Nunn, President Gore asks Congress to pass the Airport Security and Homeland Security Acts. The latter creates the Department of Homeland Security. Gore nominates Colin Powell to be the first Secretary of Homeland Security.

On September 9, the FBI breaks arrests several Saudi nationals for plotting to hijack airplanes and flying them into the World Trade Center, Pentagon and the White House.

On September 11, the World Trade Center is still standing.

In mid October, the US and UK invade Afghanistan and drive out the Taliban from power. Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri are caught. They are extradited to the US (they will be convicted of terrorism charges and sentenced to death in 2003).

2002:
After Senator Paul Wellstone's death in a plane crash, the DFL nominates Hubert Humphrey III for the Senate. He defeats Norm Coleman and is elected to the seat once held by former President Mondale.

2003:
Citing no WMDs in Iraq, President Gore decides not to invade Iraq.

2004:
President Gore is re-elected over Senator John McCain.

2007:
Senator Bill Clinton and Vice President Bill Bradley announce their candidacies for President of the United States.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

I must say, that was a particularly uninspiring TL attempt. Couldn't have been much subtler with how Gore put forth what would then be a controversial initiative (really, putting lines and security checks into centers of commerce pre-9-11? Unpopular is just the start...) that would stop 9-11 (which wasn't butterflied away with different policies over two decades?) or wouldn't invade Iraq (calls to invade despite no 9-11?), could you?

 

[Hermanubis]

1979:
After Jimmy Carter is buried in his hometown of Plains, GA, President Mondale nominates House Majority Leader Jim Wright for Vice President.

Since Mondale is a former Senator, he has a better relationship with Congress than his predecessor. After conferring with Senators Kennedy and Muskie, President Mondale decides not to allow the deposed Shah of Iran into the US for medical treatment. As a result, the US Embassy in Teheran is not seized by the Iranians.

Senator Kennedy decides not to challenge Mondale for the Democratic party nomination in 1980.

1980:
Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale and is elected the next President. Reagan sweeps the South including Vice President Wright's home state of Texas. Mondale wins his home state of Minnesota plus Hawaii, West Virginia, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia.

Guys, I really think your underestimating the martyr effect that an assassinated President will cause; if no Iran hostage crisis, Mondale will probably be reelected

 

[Expat]

Guys, I really think your underestimating the martyr effect that an assassinated President will cause; if no Iran hostage crisis, Mondale will probably be reelected

Yeah exactly. At the very least, doesn't he get enough political capital to do something that noticeably departs from OTL?
He's got a relatively strong intelligence background and, given a successful assassination, license to shake up at least domestic intelligence. Any reason for him to poke his nose into foreign intel that might lead to a reinterpretation of the situation in Iran?
Also if that Mexican angle was true, that could have some repercussions i.e. border policy and immigration.
Mondale also loved welfare, do we see enough love for Carter (pre-hostage crisis mind) to see another round of Great Society-type social programs in the wake of his death?
And I might be wrong about this, but didn't Mondale run in '84 on reducing nuclear stockpiles? I think that easily gets speeded up.

Whether he gets reelected or not I can't say, but this is the second time in twenty years that you've got an assassinated Democrat bolstering a social reformer against an attempt by the conservative wing of the Republican party to seize control of that party from the moderates. If the conservatives are defeated a second time in this way (and I admit, Reagan's pretty hard to defeat,) that might be a setback they don't recover from.

 

[Lord Grattan]

It's borderline ASB to think that by permitting the Shah of Iran into the US for medical treatment the hostage crisis evaporates. It's also ASB to believe that OBL doesn't try, try and try again until he successfully hits a major target in the USA. It's a nice Democratic-wank TL though.

 

[admkenshin]

It's not even certain that it was OBL who staged 9/11 in the first place. That's the problem with modern day what if's, they rely on a lot of 'if's' themselves to be true, not to mention the fact that we are involved clouding our judgement. In 20-30 years, maybe we can have this discussion ^_^.

 

[Lord Grattan]

It's not even certain that it was OBL who staged 9/11 in the first place. That's the problem with modern day what if's, they rely on a lot of 'if's' themselves to be true, not to mention the fact that we are involved clouding our judgement. In 20-30 years, maybe we can have this discussion ^_^.

We need a laughing smilie for comments like Admkenshin's (who probably has doubts that Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK).

 

[Hermanubis]

It's not even certain that it was OBL who staged 9/11 in the first place. That's the problem with modern day what if's, they rely on a lot of 'if's' themselves to be true, not to mention the fact that we are involved clouding our judgement. In 20-30 years, maybe we can have this discussion ^_^.

In 1979 the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan is going on, Osama Bin Laden could be killed by butterflies...

 

[Berra]

Nothing changes. I posted a tread about economists researching cool things in Chat and one of the claims is that nothing changes with a assasination in an democracy (things are different in an dictatorship).

 

[Derek Jackson]

Scary-make that terrifying-thought for starters: President Walter Mondale.

If you thought the hostage crisis was mismanaged by Carter, Mondale's handling would be even more amateurish and inept.

It is true that the rescue attempt was a failure and may have been mismanaged however

The amateurish inept Carter got the hostages out and did give concessions to the hostage takers (other than unfreezing assets siezed after the hostage taking)

Compare and contrast with the guy who armed terrorists to get hostages out

 

[Earling]

Nothing changes. I posted a tread about economists researching cool things in Chat and one of the claims is that nothing changes with a assasination in an democracy (things are different in an dictatorship).

That is true in the short term but not in the long.
Its unlikely* Mondale is going to alter previous policy drastically, well, barring some initial fall out from the assassination. If we assume he isn't going to launch some sweeping changes most of the people and ideas of government are going to remain the same. It seems reasonable to say that most government performance, aside some butterfly effect will remain the same.

*Unless someone knows different, I don't really know enough to comment.

The real point about democracies is the whole popularity contest. Would Mondale perform better or worse than Carter in the 1980 election? I don't know enough to judge, but things will certainly be different.

 

[Berra]

The real point about democracies is the whole popularity contest. Would Mondale perform better or worse than Carter in the 1980 election? I don't know enough to judge, but things will certainly be different.

Well, he would have had the same economic problems as Carter.

 

[Grand_Panjandrum]

What is it with the names Harvey and Lee?

 

[Historico]

Now, the question is who might President Mondale pick as his Vice President due to the vacancy. If his thought process are the same as it was in OTL 84 in TTL's 79 as President, he will want to set an historical precedent. Tom Bradley, not effected by the California Gubnetorial election loss of '82...was still remarkably popular, as was then San Fransico Mayor Dianne Fienstein would be a very wise choices. Also former trailblazer candidate Shirley Chisholm is a possiblity as well as UN amabssador to the UN under the Carter administration is a possibilty as well. Or, to push for Party Unity he could always hand the job to Teddy

If President Mondale is able to make more of a pragmatic approach to the Iran Hostage Crisis and is able to garner the Rally around the Flag and Martyr effects in the election...He might be able to beat Reagan