Lets imagine that for one moment that a Senator JFK Junior runs for President in 2000. Lets say Bill C was removed from office a couple of year prior. Could he win the nomination? Which kind of platform could he run on? And could he defeat Bush?
JFK Jr 2000 ?
- Thread starter Euroman1981
- Start date
Marc
Donor
You are asking a 4 variable supposing, which nearly makes it impossible to speculate.
1. John Kennedy Jr gets elected to the Senate.
2. He runs for President in 2000
3. Clinton has been successfully impeached.
4. He wins the Democratic nomination.
To just give you sense of the problems: look seriously at #1
What state? Mass has his uncle Ted as a Senator, two Kennedy's really isn't going to happen. New York? D'Amato's seat is possible; he did barely win re-election in 1992, however, regardless of charisma and name, Kennedy at 31 was a fledgling prosecutor in Manhattan - rather unlikely he would be a candidate; and running in 1998 would almost certainly preclude a Presidential run just before the start of the 2000 election cycle.
I could go on, but I imagine others will point out the problems. But as I said to start, constructively, your scenario assumes far too many events lining up just the right way.
By the way, a candidate's platform is really immaterial, a pro forma window dressing of modern politics.
1. John Kennedy Jr gets elected to the Senate.
2. He runs for President in 2000
3. Clinton has been successfully impeached.
4. He wins the Democratic nomination.
To just give you sense of the problems: look seriously at #1
What state? Mass has his uncle Ted as a Senator, two Kennedy's really isn't going to happen. New York? D'Amato's seat is possible; he did barely win re-election in 1992, however, regardless of charisma and name, Kennedy at 31 was a fledgling prosecutor in Manhattan - rather unlikely he would be a candidate; and running in 1998 would almost certainly preclude a Presidential run just before the start of the 2000 election cycle.
I could go on, but I imagine others will point out the problems. But as I said to start, constructively, your scenario assumes far too many events lining up just the right way.
By the way, a candidate's platform is really immaterial, a pro forma window dressing of modern politics.
Yeah, this scenario is just impractical. The earliest possible opportunity would be in 2004 had Kennedy decided to run for the Senate in 2000, but he had already passed on that and was planning on running for Governor of New York in 2002.
What if he passes the bar earlier, becomes more successful, and runs for mayor in 2001 ?
A little past your due date, but if he is successful there, maybe he can run for governor then eventually president.
A little past your due date, but if he is successful there, maybe he can run for governor then eventually president.
Assuming the question about platform is more about what issues he would work on in the Senate instead of believing it's his ticket to the Senate, I think it would be wise to check out one of the new biographies of him, but I haven't read one myself yet. They may have insight though - they got pretty positive reviews (Kennedy Heirs and America's Prince).
Anyway, I think the problem is that 2000 is too early of a year. He'd have to run in NY and as Marc mentioned, this is hard to do. He's not constitutionally eligible to run for Senate until 1990 (like Biden, he'd be elected at 29). There was no NY senate election in 1990. The 1992 race was against D'Amato, as Marc mentioned, but this would require Kennedy beating three well-known New Yorkers, Bob Abrams (the attorney general and OTL nominee), Geraldine Ferraro (who was still widely respected, especially in NY state and feminist circles. Her political decline didn't really start until this loss), and Liz Holtzman of Watergate fame. There's no way he primaries Moynihan in 1994 (though I suppose it's possible you could have Moynihan retire early - but again, there's little evidence that Kennedy, at 34, is going to overcome this same cast of characters (and potentially others).
It is possible that Kennedy could run in the Democratic nomination against Schumer and Ferraro in 1998, but you'd need some POD that gives him more credibility to happen. Maybe he runs for the House early on and avoids the mediocrity of his law career and George, and he may also score brownie points for "paying his dues" instead of leapfrogging into the Senate. Or maybe Clinton makes him a US Attorney and he prosecutes a major case? Otherwise, he's a meh lawyer with an expensive and flailing magazine. Yes, he's JFK's son, but NY is known for having many personalities. He'd need to overcome some big names in the 90s that could rival him - Abrams, Ferraro, Schumer, and Hotlzman to name a few, but also Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Carolyn McCarthy who may also become Senate candidates in different situations as you begin to tinker with a POD.
Jack's mention of NYC Mayor in 2001 is a good one, but is a post-9/11 NYC going to turn to JFK Jr? (The primary election was scheduled for 9/11 and then delayed). It seems possible that JFK Jr. could have a lead and then his campaign falls apart after the terrorist attacks when people flee to a more experienced candidate (or maybe JFK Jr's charisma allows him to deliver a compelling response - could go either way, I suppose ... and this assumes 9/11). But Amadeus is right that the general consensus seems to be that JFK Jr. was planning on challenging Pataki in 2002, and if 9/11 does happen ITTL, he likely loses to Pataki.
So with all this being said, your vision is difficult to achieve and expand on without a more concrete understanding of how JFK gets there because it'll require some major changes to become plausible. Otherwise, 2008 seems to be the earliest we can have a JFK Jr presidential candidacy
Anyway, I think the problem is that 2000 is too early of a year. He'd have to run in NY and as Marc mentioned, this is hard to do. He's not constitutionally eligible to run for Senate until 1990 (like Biden, he'd be elected at 29). There was no NY senate election in 1990. The 1992 race was against D'Amato, as Marc mentioned, but this would require Kennedy beating three well-known New Yorkers, Bob Abrams (the attorney general and OTL nominee), Geraldine Ferraro (who was still widely respected, especially in NY state and feminist circles. Her political decline didn't really start until this loss), and Liz Holtzman of Watergate fame. There's no way he primaries Moynihan in 1994 (though I suppose it's possible you could have Moynihan retire early - but again, there's little evidence that Kennedy, at 34, is going to overcome this same cast of characters (and potentially others).
It is possible that Kennedy could run in the Democratic nomination against Schumer and Ferraro in 1998, but you'd need some POD that gives him more credibility to happen. Maybe he runs for the House early on and avoids the mediocrity of his law career and George, and he may also score brownie points for "paying his dues" instead of leapfrogging into the Senate. Or maybe Clinton makes him a US Attorney and he prosecutes a major case? Otherwise, he's a meh lawyer with an expensive and flailing magazine. Yes, he's JFK's son, but NY is known for having many personalities. He'd need to overcome some big names in the 90s that could rival him - Abrams, Ferraro, Schumer, and Hotlzman to name a few, but also Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Carolyn McCarthy who may also become Senate candidates in different situations as you begin to tinker with a POD.
Jack's mention of NYC Mayor in 2001 is a good one, but is a post-9/11 NYC going to turn to JFK Jr? (The primary election was scheduled for 9/11 and then delayed). It seems possible that JFK Jr. could have a lead and then his campaign falls apart after the terrorist attacks when people flee to a more experienced candidate (or maybe JFK Jr's charisma allows him to deliver a compelling response - could go either way, I suppose ... and this assumes 9/11). But Amadeus is right that the general consensus seems to be that JFK Jr. was planning on challenging Pataki in 2002, and if 9/11 does happen ITTL, he likely loses to Pataki.
So with all this being said, your vision is difficult to achieve and expand on without a more concrete understanding of how JFK gets there because it'll require some major changes to become plausible. Otherwise, 2008 seems to be the earliest we can have a JFK Jr presidential candidacy
Either JFK Jr would become the VP of Obama instead of Biden, and runs to the 2016 elections ... Or else he remains a senator ... Unless he suffered the tragedy of the Kennedy family and died in the meantime ... But anyway, in his manners, he cared more for his mother than his father and had no ambition policy of the latter.
Marc
Donor
As pointed out by Vidal, New York had a very deep Democratic bench. John Kennedy Jr.'s background wouldn't be enough. Perhaps in Mass.
But all of this would require a personality change for the young man, and there is not much evidence that would have happened.
Not saying there isn't room for him on the NYC Council. But I think there are doubts that Kennedy would take such a role. There's only real evidence that he considered seeking office once - governor, in 2002 - he seemed to have felt entitled. Let's grant that he runs for the NYC when he's 25-30, that's 1985-1990. NYC councilor JFK Jr still has to compete against the likes of Bob Abrams, Geraldine Ferraro, Chuck Schumer, Liz Holtzman... that's not easy to do and requires a lot of luck, and significantly different changes to JFK Jr's temperament and character