If the Jews are simply placed in ghettos, used for forced labor etc but no death camps, no forced transfers from Italy, Hungary, the Balkans/Greece, then perhaps 3/4 or more of the Jews who died OTL are likely to survive. Although the Polish Jews and those in areas of the USSR that are Nazi occupied will still do the worst. The diversion of Nazi resources, especially transportation, used to move Jews to the death camps as well as the Einsatzgruppen won't occur, meaning the actual military effort, especially in the east would do better - but not in time for Barbarossa to take Leningrad or Moscow early on as the murder mechanism was not in place in spring, 1941. While this might mean the Russians don't take Berlin I don't see them not getting back as far west as the German-Russian division of Poland or more. Bottom line is that most of the surviving Polish Jews (those in Poland pre September 1939) end up behind Russian lines, and here, like OTL I don't see Stalin giving up much ground occupied by the Red Army.