The RNC turning on a popular incumbent President (with strong coattails that have benefited the party) and forcing him out of contention is something that I cannot see happening. It's is even harder to imagine Bush going along with it.
I agree that it would be hard to do so. They themselves would be reticent to do it. The way I see it going down is that before the debates, Reagan has a massive lead over Jackson in the polls. Like the OTL first debate with Mondale, the first debate with Jackson goes horribly for Reagan. Jackson closes the gap to a 9 or 10 point deficit. Still a good lead for Reagan (excellent by contemporary standards!) but until OTL, when Reagan had a good debate performance with Mondale, Reagan performs even worse in the second debate. He loses his train of thought, has a moment where he just stares in silence in response to a question, asks the debate moderator to repeat several questions and ip his OTL quip regarding Mondale's "youth and experience" either isn't uttered or is seen as condescending or racist when said to Jackson. After all, The quip does come across as witty against Mondale but sounds less so when used against the first major African-American party nominee in United States history.
Basically, after the second debate and the days afterwards, Reagan's lead shrinks to 1 or 2 points. Normally, that wouldn't be a problem but the GOP was expecting a major blowout. Seeing that this is no longer the case and Reagan has blown a massive lead, they worry what he might do that would make his numbers go lower and endanger GOP seats in the House and Senate. Officials of the RNC, NRSC and the NRCC meet with Reagan at the White House on the pretext of a campaign planning session and they broache the subject that Reagan's numbers have dropped dramatically and they stroke his ego, telling him how great he has been and how much they accomplished and then they tell him that he should be a team player and leave the field a winner and drop out of the race. Reagan knows what's going on and doesn't like what he's hearing but he keeps his warm, friendly demeanour.
The next day, newspapers like "The New York Times" and the "Washington Post" publish stories citing "anonymous sources" stating that there is 'concern' about Reagan's stamina to serve a second term. Over the next couple of days, Op-Ed pieces written by establishment Republican figures stating that Reagan should be proud of accomplishments and it is time for Bush to take up his mantle get published. The rumour mill works I've time over the next few days. After three or four days, Larry Speakes is forced to issue a forceful denial at the White House press briefing. This is then reported by the media to be signs of desperation.
After several more days, the Gallup poll publishes a poll that shows Jackson in the lead by 2 points, 43-41, with the rest undecided. The GOP is getting panicky at this point. While computer technology is still primitive by our standards, their forecasts shows the GOP losing their Senate majority and on course to have less than a third of seats in the House!
During a meeting between Reagan and Republican leaders in Congress, the issue is again broached. This time Reagan gets angry after House Minority Leader Bob Michel (who is now in a dead heat in his district) tells Reagan is jeopardizing everything they worked for. A shouting match ensues and is overheard by a member of the White House Press Corps. It is reported on the front page of newspapers the next day.
A couple days later, a member of Congress says that Reagan looks "tired" and should take a couple days to rest. The meme that Reagan is "tired" picks up steam. Members of the RNC and Republican members of the House and Senate tell Vice President Bush in private that he should be the one on the top of the ticket, not Reagan. He is flattered but brushes it off until discussing it in bed the following night with Barbara. She tells him that Reagan will lose the election if he stays on the ticket and tells him it is his duty to ask Reagan to stand aside for the good of the country. He sleeps on it and the next morning makes a call to Lee Atwater. Atwater, recently fired from the campaign by campaign manager Ed Rollins agrees. Bush and Atwater meet that afternoon and discuss the situation over lunch at the Naval Observatory.
Atwater says with the election coming up in less than a month, that they have to act fast! Atwater plants rumours to his friends in the media that Reagan has memory loss as a consequence of Hickley's assassination attempt a few years earlier. After a few days, Gallup polls shows Jackson ahead of Reagan 45-41 with Libertarian David Bergland at 7% nationally and ahead in Alaska and within the margin of error in Idaho.
At their weekly lunch, Reagan and Bush discuss the trajectory of the race. Bush, after publicly and privately supporting Reagan up to this point tells Reagan that he should drop out of the race due to "stress" but serve out the rest of his term. Bush also offers to ask Areagan for his counsel on major economic and defense policies. Reagan is calm but sounds and looks defeated at this point. He promises to think about it and let Bush know his decision within 48 hours. Bush says that he will respect his decision and if Reagan decides to stay in the race, he will back him to the hilt and won't say or do anything to pull him out of the race.
That evening, after dinner, Reagan tells his wife Nancy about his lunch with Bush. Nancy tells him that she believes in him and that he doesn't trust Bush to keep his promise to Reagan. Reagan is exhauted over the constant drumbeat at this point but is still resolved to win. He is genuinely undecided what he will decide in the next couple days and has a restless night.
The following day, Bush and Atwater meet to discuss possible running mates and Atwater books a venue for an official campaign launch and orders campaign signs printed for the event with each of the five possible running mates. They are Bush/Lugar '84, Bush/Baker (Howard not James) '84 and Bush/Kemp '84, Bush/Kean '84 and the wildcard, Bush/Hawkins '84.
The next morning, Reagan has made up his mind to drop out of the race and endorse Bush as his successor. He tells Nancy, who is sobbing and in tears but she gives him a hug and he consoles her. He calls Bush and tells him of his plans. However, a few hours later, an aide mentions how Bush and Atwater have been meeting for a week and shares a couple Polaroids from the planned Bush campaign event showing the various campaign signs. Reagan is live at Bush's betrayal and changes his mind. Returning the stab in the back from Bush, Reagan doesn't call him back but decides to go to his press conference and not only announce that he is staying in the race but to ask Bush to drop out of the race!
At the venue of Bush's planned campaign launch, he, Atwater and close advisors are watching the speech as they expect to start the start of the Bush campaign. Bush is shocked at what he is hearing and orders Atwater to find the rat and make sure he never has a job in Republican politics ever again! Bush sends out a press release reiterating that he will not drop out of the race as he was duly nominated at the convention that summer in Houston and that Reagan has no legal right to remove him without his consent. Bush's surrogates point out to how "tired" and "stressed" Reagan looked in his press conference, one even going out of their way to call him "wild-eyed".
The following day, a Washington Post poll shows Jackson with 44% support, Reagan with 38% support and support for the Libertarian, David Bergland at 11%. The poll shows Bergland even leading in Alaska, Idaho and Montana as well as polling second place in Utah and both Dakotas. The poll also shows Bush the preferred nominee of registered Republicans by a 50 to 44 percent margin over Reagan. The poll also shows Bush leading Jackson by a 48 to 43 percent margin with Bergland's share of the vote dropping to 4% and leading in no states but only two points behind Bush in Alaska. The Washington Post article also notes that replacing Reagan with Bush will save up to 50 seats in the House and possibly even saving the Senate. One unnamed official even says a last minute replacement would allow Republicans to pick up Kentucky!
At this time, the feud with Reagan and Bush grows. All of Bush's loyalists in the administration are fired and Reagan has his attorneys look for legal avenues to force Bush off the ticket and replaced with his friend, Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt. Meanwhile, Bush, no longer forced to accommodate Reagan and his wishes, has settled on Tennessee Senator Howard Baker. His other finalist was Indiana Senator Richard Lugar but Lugar didn't want to alienate the Reaganites in the Indiana GOP in order to insulate himself from a future primary challenge. Baker, who is retiring from the a Senate and personally resolved not to run for office (other than possibly president) again, agrees.
Over the next week, the uncertainty of what the Republican ticket is, whether it is Reagan/Bush (neither filed paperwork to withdraw from the race at this point), Reagan/Laxalt or Bush/Baker is in total limbo. The RNC and the Congressional campaign committees are focused on salvaging what they can from the debacle at this point.
The calls for Reagan to drop out of the race grow after Reagan repeatedly refers to Soviet leader Constantin Chernenko as "General Secretary Brezhnev" five times during a speech. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, taking advantage of the Republican infighting, introduces a proposed Constitutional amendment to bar the electoral college from voting for anyone for President or Vice President if that person has attained the age of 70 years at the time the electoral college meets. Several conservative Republican senators, including the youthful Dan Quayle and Bob Kasten immediately co sponsor the bill.
Polls now show Jackson with a 48 to 37 point lead over Reagan with Bergland at 15 percent. Pundits speculate on whether this election will break the record set in 1924 for lowest ever turnout and note that, had the debates not already been held, Bergland would have qualified for inclusion!
With two weeks to go before Election Day, Republican Party officials broker a meeting between Bush and Reagan. Reagan agrees to drop out provided that his economic policies will be continued, Paul Laxalt serves as Bush's running mate, Milton Friedman will serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board upon Paul Volker's retirement, Barry Goldwater gets Defense and, last but not least, Nancy Reagan is to be appointed drug czar. Bush agrees to all these conditions except for Laxalt serving as Vice President. Reagan insists on it until Bush promises that Laxalt will serve as his Chief of Staff. Bush loyalist James A. Baker III, disppointed after being fired by Reagan days earlier, and hoping for a return as White House Chief of Statf, is comsoled with the offer of Attorney General by his old friend with the right of first refusal over the first Supreme Court vacancy in the hypothetical Bush presidency.
The next morning, Reagan announces his withdrawal from the race and endorses Bush, who is standing next to him, in the Rose Garden. Contorversy erupts when Reagan says "The future of the free world will be at stake in the next term. It will take a man with vision and courage to stand up to General Secretary Brez- um, Christ, uh, Chinkchinko. Chinkerko. We cannot elect some young buck that no one knows what vision or courage he has, if any, that the opposing party has nominated." To this day, the video of Bush's draw dropping as Reagan said that is a metaphor for a n "oh shit!" moment.
Bush looks uncomfortable as he takes the podium after Reagan but quickly thanks him for his remarks before speaking and announcing Howard Baker as his choice for Vice President. He also mentions that it is too late to update the ballots in most states so voters will need to "Win one more for the Gipper!"
The next day, the story, including Reagan's gaffe is splashed across the papers. Many of Reagan's die hard fans refuse to vote for Bush, vowing to stay home or vote for Bergland. Conspiracy theories of an "Illuminati Coup" pop up on right wing BBS and in newsletters.
The following morning the Washington Post publishes a poll showing Bush ahead of Jackson 49 to 41 with only 5 percent for Bergland (he's still ahead in Alaska!) and 3 percent saying they will write-in Ronald Reagan. The most talked about story, however, is the allegations by an anonymous source claiming that Bush had approved clandestine deals with Iran in return for oil.
In the closing days of the campaign, the allegations, albeit lacking solid proof, serve to serve as an albatross on Bush's campaign. He now leads Jesse Jackson by 45 to 42 with 9 percent for Bergland (Bergland leads in Alaska and Idaho) with write ins for Reagan accounting for two percent of the vote. Crucially, Bush trails Jackson in the Midwest and in New York and California.
Two days before the election, a boisterous yet tired Jackson makes his "Hymietown" comment while campaigning in the south. (In OTL, the comment was butterflied away by the different primary campaign but uttered later instead.)
On election night, Jackson wins Arkansas, California, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine (3 of 4, cD-2 votes for Bush), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota and Wisconsin for exactly 270 electoral votes. Bergland wins Alaska and Idaho for 7 electoral votes. Bush wins every thing else for 261 electoral votes.
Jackson's Hymietown comments cost him a lot of votes in New York. Bush won not only Staten Island but Manhattan and narrowly lost Brooklyn. Jackson's victories in the south were due to sharply increased black turnout versus OTL, anger at Reagan's withdrawal leading to a lot of voters staying home. Reagan also got 7% of the vote and won two upstate rural counties as the nominee of the Right-to-Life Party which refused to replace Reagan with Bush. Reagan got his highest proportion of write-in votes (11% and 9%) in Mississippi and South Carolina, respectively. Jackson's victory in California came from Reagan write-ins (4% of the total) combined with 5% voting for Bergland and over 70% turnout in the Bay Area and record low turnout in a presidential election in Orange County despite a string of Bush/Baker rallies headlined by OJ Simpson. The rallies got people to turn out and Simpson did win a congressional seat in 1986.
Jackson's win in the Dakota were due to Bush and Bergland splitting the vote. Due to the three way race, write-ins from Reagan were almost non-existent. The industrial Midwest voted for Jackson due to a combination of attraction to his policies plus enough racist voters staying home allowing for Jackson to win.
The popular vote was 44 percent for Bush, 42 percent for Jackson, 9 percent for Bergland, 5 percent write-in votes for Reagan (many states didn't allow write-ins or didn't count votes for Reagan as he wasn't an official candidate; Reagan got most of his write-in votes in the South) and the rest for other candidates. Bergland got over 20% in New Hampshire and relegated Jackson to a distant third in Utah.
As a result of increase in minority turnout in the Midwest and the cities, the Republicans lost 30 seats in the House and were able to draw the Democrats to a tie due to the victory (by 91 votes!) by Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Bob Michel lost his bid for re-election to Congress due to a sharp drop in turnout and was replaced as Minority Leader by a young Wyoming Congressman named Dick Cheney.
Does this sound plausible? I apologize in advance for any spelling errors and grammatical mistakes. It look my five hours to compose this on an iPad and I had to frequently undo autocorrect.
