Robert,
What were the provisions for presidential succession in the Confederate constitution? I know that document generally copied the US version with a few additions and deletions.
I'm asking this because presidential succession at the time was still partially governed by tradition. There were serious questions about whether the vice-president became the actual president or whether he simply filled the office as an acting president until a new or special presidential election could be called.
When Harrison died, Tyler started the tradition of the vice-president becoming the actual president by simply ignoring those questions. Among other things, he took the Oath of Office and wouldn't accept mail or other documents addressed to the "Acting President".
So, when Davis dies what would Alexander Stephens do? Continue the USA tradition or start a CSA tradition? Would the men around him the cabinet allow him to pull off the same bluff as Tyler? Would they seriously consider holding an presidential election in 1864? (Although the Union did.)
My own thought is that Alexander H. Stephens becomes President, and serves out the remainder of Davis's term. By this time in history, the succession of the Vice President to the Presidency on the death of the President has been accomplished twice, without serious dispute, in the U.S. The provisions in the C.S. Constitution regarding the succession were identical to those in the U.S. Constitution. Therefore, precedent will strongly argue in favor of this being the correct procedure in the C.S.A. as well.
I also don't see the people in the Confederate Cabinet, or the Confederate Congress, seriously opposing Stephens. Stephens was arguably more popular among the Congress than Davis, and none of the Cabinet members that I am aware of had any major disputes with him, either.
Whatever the results, I don't see Davis' death helping either the Union or Confederacy. Confusion at such a high level, however brief, cannot be a god thing.
Bill
I agree that confusion at such a high level is not a good thing. But not necessarily fatal, if the Vice President is ready to step in.
I wonder what sort of decisions Stephens might have made during the crucial 1864 canpaigns? For one thing, he did not, as did Davis, have an ongoing feud with Joe Johnston. Would Johnston have been left in command outside Atlanta in the summer of 1864?
How would Stephens have handled the efforts to get legislation for the recruiment of black troops through Congress? Would he have been as open-minded as Davis was about this, or more, or less so?
Would Stephens have made an earlier attempt to end the war via negotiation? How successful might he have been? He was a friend of Abraham Lincoln...might he have been able to use this to gain a peace at least somewhat acceptable to the South? Would he have considered reunion (he had opposed secession in 1861) as the price of peace, if it could end the fighting?