Jean-Marie le Pen wins 2002 election in France

What if Jean-Marie le-Pen who stunned France and most of Europe by advancing past the first round of the presidential elections had defeated Jacques Chirac in the general election....

After Chirac's re-election victory there were massive ethnic riots and violence, the 2003 heat-wave tragedy and other weather-related events...

Could Le Pen have dealt with these situations better?
 

Hendryk

Banned
In OTL he lost 18% to 82%, his very presence in the run-off was a complete fluke. You'd need to find a really good POD to explain such a massive electoral shift.
 
What if Jean-Marie le-Pen who stunned France and most of Europe by advancing past the first round of the presidential elections had defeated Jacques Chirac in the general election....

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There is a novel about it, in french, supposing he applies his stated program.

The tile, les 100 jours ( the 100 days ) give you an idea what happends and how long it takes for the situation to be so bad he has to flee and apply for asilum ... in Iraq.
 
It would require a major ASB intervention. Only those who supported him in the first round voted for Le Pen in the second round as well.
Le Pen made the first round because every other party had an own candidate and there were far too many candidates, thus splitting the votes into many different smallish fractions. You have to make Front National a respected and popular party well BEFORE the election - because the only thing other parties have agreed on in the second round was a rejection of Le Pen.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
The only thing that might give him a shot at 30 to 40% would be to have the riots of a couple of years ago at the time of the elections.
 
Perhaps Al-Qaeda decides to attack France also crashing a plane in to the Eiffel Tower. It's discovered the perpertrators were Algerian immigrants and Le Pen blames them winning the election.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Perhaps Al-Qaeda decides to attack France also crashing a plane in to the Eiffel Tower. It's discovered the perpertrators were Algerian immigrants and Le Pen blames them winning the election.
You're turning into a junior version of Chris. Even something like that wouldn't have resulted in a Le Pen victory; the result would probably have been a stronger showing by Chirac in the first round, leading to the same outcome: his reelection. When a country feels under attack, voters trust the incumbent more than the outsider, especially an outsider as shady as Le Pen.

Besides, Islamist terrorists did try to crash a plane into the Eiffel Tower in 1994. They made the mistake of stopping on the way for refueling, and they were taken down by the GIGN.
 
I'd have to think France electing someone like Le Pen would essentially require French Democracy getting subverted in one way or another (assassination? a coup attempt?).

Hendryk calls this ASB, but this might be marginally possible (odds in excess of millions to one against) through some kind of absurd political wackitude. As Hendryk mentions, even something like a terrorist attack is unlikely to swing Le Pen into office.

Le Pen would either need the rules to break down or his opposition to literally vaporize. Chirac suddenly dropping dead of a heart attack or some such.

In either case, Le Pen is in a democratic country and can not face the will of the people. I don't think that suddenly scrambling for the center and selling everything he believes in to hold onto power will suffice. In short, Le Pen glitches into office. Glitches don't remain in office. Le Pen will either be swiftly removed from office, or, at best, he is able to leverage some kind of concession in a negotiated resignation.

Of course, he may opt to fight--to call up the army and do everything in his power to keep his position. In this case, Le Pen simply provokes a Coup that removes him and then shoots him.
 
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