Japan's Wars w/o Nazi Germany

Well, the Soviets in OTL were strong advocates of a collective security agreement in East Asia (as they were in Europe). So I could see a push in OTL as well.

Are you talking about with Japan or with other states with whom they want to cooperate?

Honestly though Stalin would work with Japan as a mere means to an end so he can build up his forces and crush them, he tended to be good at following treaties, Japan tended to be good at breaking them. Japan itself probably wasn't going to entertain the sorts of prerequisites (i.e. stay out of China) that the Soviets would want in exchange for their cooperation.

Once Japan goes into China it's liable that the Soviets are going to get rid of them.
 
The latter.

Ah, I can see Stalin taking advantage of a Japanese invasion distracting China's attentions by rolling into Xinjiang to basically create a permanent Soviet client-state and maybe even shoring up the communists in central China. They could do this for Manchuria as well.

Maybe, MAYBE Tibet if it's deemed in Soviet interests to at least build them up as a buffer against China and leave the door open for a stronger Soviet presence in Asia, though that would probably forfeit a good amount of support from the Chinese communists, so it's not likely.

Basically no serious threat from the West (Britain and France aren't going to go all Barbarossa on Stalin that's for sure) along with a stronger Western presence in the Pacific hurts Japan's capabilities and strengthens Soviet ones, the Soviets will be in a serious position to actually challenge their foes.
 
I'd argue that Japan's decisions from 1931-1941 would be essentially unaffected, but there could be some interesting differences. As others have said Japan's decision to invade China was based purely on local considerations and would have occurred anyway. This would have still led to friction with the US (in particular) possibly leading to an oil embargo. On the other hand, there would not be a European War going on, and Britain, France, and the Netherlands would have been much more capable of defending their asian and indonesian dependencies. I doubt Japan would attack as widely as it did OTL and there could be just a limited war between the US and Japan.

There would be no Anti-Comintern Pact and no Axis, so Japan would be essentially on their own. Also, who's to say that a resurgent, nationalist, but non-fascist Germany might be a supporter of Chaing's regime over Japan. There is also the USSR to contend with. Absent a Nazi threat in the west, Stalin might be far more adventurous in resisting Japanese power grabs in Manchuria, Mongolia, and the rest of China.
 
I agree with you Zoomar, though German support will not really help if China is halfway across the world and the USSR looms on its front doorstep.

The one problem with Japan is that they do have to take the (comparatively undefended, even in good times for the Dutch) DEI and to do that they need bases from French Indochina. Basically, Japan-screw is going to be the name of the day here.

Meanwhile Japan will be perceived as a massive threat and the other powers will be complicit, if not directly supportive of Soviet efforts to toss them out of mainland Asia, it'll be a good time for the Soviet Union.
 
Well, the Soviets in OTL were strong advocates of a collective security agreement in East Asia (as they were in Europe). So I could see a push in OTL as well.

Japan had the example of the European imperial powers before them. They were simply doing the imperial thing, and their Empire had been growing inexorably at the expense of Russia, Korea, China and Germany. I can't see why they would stop. The Dutch and British Empires must have been very tempting dishes at the Far East table.
 
Japan had the example of the European imperial powers before them. They were simply doing the imperial thing, and their Empire had been growing inexorably at the expense of Russia, Korea, China and Germany. I can't see why they would stop. The Dutch and British Empires must have been very tempting dishes at the Far East table.

Because they realize that these Far Eastern possessions aren't just easy pickings like they were when the west was distracted by the threat of Nazi Germany like in history, which is why Japan historically felt it would be able to get away with belligerently expanding across the Pacific and also that it would be able to treat the Americans the same way as they had treated all the other colonial powers whose possessions they had taken.

With a better European position to counter Japanese expansion, the Japanese are going to have to take a pick of less bristly targets such as China.
 
There are also some potential racial overtones that we may be missing. It may sound ugly, but the European powers and the US may decide to gang up on Japan. It would be sold as stopping the "yellow peril" from overrunning Asia. The Japanese were caricatured quite a bit in the Western press and popular culture. Japan will not be allowed to get the upper hand on Europe and/or America, they will get shut down!
 
The one problem with Japan is that they do have to take the (comparatively undefended, even in good times for the Dutch) DEI and to do that they need bases from French Indochina. Basically, Japan-screw is going to be the name of the day here.
Historically, the Dutch and their supporters did such an admirable job of sabotage that the Japanese didn’t get the oil fields back to 100% production until late 1944. And they couldn't transport it back home or use it where they were. So yes, they are oh-so screwed.
 
Historically, the Dutch and their supporters did such an admirable job of sabotage that the Japanese didn’t get the oil fields back to 100% production until late 1944. And they couldn't transport it back home or use it where they were. So yes, they are oh-so screwed.

Indeed, and this is assuming they can even take Indochina from France, which will be hard enough. So yes, with expansion into China comes the threat of war with Soviet Russia, and with expansion into the Pacific the threat of war with the US and European colonial powers.
 
Japan had the example of the European imperial powers before them. They were simply doing the imperial thing, and their Empire had been growing inexorably at the expense of Russia, Korea, China and Germany. I can't see why they would stop. The Dutch and British Empires must have been very tempting dishes at the Far East table.

Tempting, except for the Royal Navy. I hope the Yamato Spirit can fuel planes, because I don't see where the oil will come from.
 
The Dutch would be stupid to peddle East Indies oil to their expansionist neighbor who can come and take their oil away from them if they so desire.

The Soviets aren't going to go further than a non-aggression pact and some minor trade.

Basically Japan's policy is all about being entirely self-sufficient in its fuel and resource needs and there isn't going to be an acceptance of expanding empire entirely at the goodwill of another nation without the leadership getting even stupider than OTL.

HeavyWeaponsGuy,
Do you mean that the Dutch would be stupid to not peddle East Indies oil?
To me that makes more sense.
 
Roosevelt has always struck me as the Charlton Heston of American Presidents; you’d have to prize the Presidency ‘out of his cold, dead hands.’

Considering this is the fifth time I am writing this post since last night, I am hoping that the Internet does not short out AGAIN, or that my Cat does not through some ASB intervention knock over my mouse which somehow closes the browser. :mad::p

Roosevelt was not keen on running, he had several months before the Invasions of Norway and Western Europe told his political ally James Farley that he could run for the Democratic nomination, but believed after these invasions that only he had the experience that could successfully navigate the US through the coming war. Remove Nazi Germany, and you likely remove FDR's run, or rather indirect run, for the Democratic Presidential nomination and thus the Presidency.

However, there were many Democratic Party bosses that were worried that certain Republican challengers like Willkie (who likely will either not run or become a political force) and Dewey would be formidable and thus defeat the Democratic Nominee (likely Farley considering he had carefully packed many of his supporters into the Convention). Therefore, they had placed one man under the Chicago Stadium wired to a microphone, who then cried out "We Want Roosevelt!" the moment the President's name was mentioned; other 'supporters' around the stadium subsequently took up the chant which then moved to the other delegations, and resulted in Roosevelt's 'draft'. Even if Roosevelt were not in the running, unless he released a Shermanesque statement sometime before the convention or at it, there is a chance he could be drafted into running.​

Uh... the Japanese incursions to China, not Indochina, were what eventually prompted the embargo, the US had a ton of interests in the country and Japan expanding into China and snatching up Chinese resources was not something the United States was going to complicity support by continuing to ship them fuel and spare machine parts.

The Scrap Metal Embargo yes, but not the Oil Embargo. I find it hard to see any of the Republican candidates or many of the Democratic candidates for President in 1940 having taken that same action if Indochina were not occupied by the Japanese.​
 

Sumeragi

Banned
I would say it would depend on the Sino-German relations. If Germany did not give as much support to Chinese industrialization as OTL, China might be pushed even further back, leaving Japan with a stronger hold on occupied territories than OTL. That's the real tricky part to this scenario: Just how strong would China have been if it had less German support for its industrialization/militarization plans?
 
However, there were many Democratic Party bosses that were worried that certain Republican challengers like Willkie (who likely will either not run or become a political force) and Dewey would be formidable and thus defeat the Democratic Nominee (likely Farley considering he had carefully packed many of his supporters into the Convention). Therefore, they had placed one man under the Chicago Stadium wired to a microphone, who then cried out "We Want Roosevelt!" the moment the President's name was mentioned; other 'supporters' around the stadium subsequently took up the chant which then moved to the other delegations, and resulted in Roosevelt's 'draft'. Even if Roosevelt were not in the running, unless he released a Shermanesque statement sometime before the convention or at it, there is a chance he could be drafted into running.

Wendell Wilke could stay a Democrat TTL -- IIRC, that's what happened in Holding Out for a Hero. That said, there isn't necessarily a reason to butterfly it...
 
Wendell Wilke could stay a Democrat TTL -- IIRC, that's what happened in Holding Out for a Hero. That said, there isn't necessarily a reason to butterfly it...

Wendell Willkie's political prowess really only came about because he was the only Republican running for the nomination that was an Internationalist and wished to help the Allies in the Second World War; basically FDR-Light. Without the war the nomination is likely to be given to Dewey, and Willkie becoming a footnote in history unless he manages to do something more notable.

However, I doubt he stays a Democrat even without the War; his biggest break with them was over the Tennessee Valley Authority, and there is no way that is butterflied away. In short, he believed most of the New Deal Programs would be better run in Private Hands rather than by the Government.​
 
^^Point taken -- so looks like either Dewey or Taft will be nominated 1940, facing off against -- well, not FDR AAR...

Now there is no definite that FDR would not run. Sorry if I lead you to that conclusion.

I think the best comparison here would be to Horatio Seymour in 1868. I don't think FDR in this scenario like Seymour would necessarily want the nomination again, but there are those in the Party that feel he is the only candidate capable of winning. Thus, there is a chance that he may be drafted by the Delegations through certain machinations to run for a third term, and if convinced by the Party Bosses that it IS necessary, he may do so.

Many of his Health Problems would not really kick in until his Third Term anyhow, but that would likely mean under no conditions would he run for a Fourth like he had in OTL.

James Farley is the likely candidate in my mind if FDR decides not to accept a Third Term, but considering the weight behind his voice, it is equally possible that Cordell Hull (whom FDR supported for the nomination before he entered himself) could have been nominated simply by FDR's support.​
 
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