Japan's Secret Strategy for Expansion

Japan's Secret Strategy for Expansion

This is almost ASB but here we go, in short Japan embarks full force on a strategy to conquer Asia in the 1820's. How does their attempt go? Better or worse then World War II?

1823 work A Secret Strategy for Expansion(宇内混同秘策) called for Japanese world domination, describing how China should be conquered via Manchuria. He suggested that the Japanese government embark on "colonial and agricultural undertakings" on uninhabited islands in the South China Sea. He also said that the Japanese government should take the Ryūkyū as a base to attack and capture Luzon Island by surprise, then use Luzon as a base for its "southward advance" to seize Java and other places, ultimately spreading its "military might" in Southeast Asia. He believed that Japan should "adopt suitable means of aggression and annexation" to "increase its national interests." This became the first draft of Japan's "southward advance" strategy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satō_Nobuhiro
 
Much worse to be blunt. Japan hadn't industrialized yet, taken over Korea, acquired a naval/military force that's capable, or gained the ability to produce the material needed to do such a feat. China was much more stable and able during this time period to do so (and would very likely do their best to prevent a Japanese take-over of Korea) The Dutch still have the Indies, so they'd go to war with the (still unified) Netherlands. Go to war with Spain over the Philippines, Siam over well... Siam. (How powerful was Siam in the 1820's? I can't find any solid numbers at the moment)
 
A much reduced European power like Spain or the Netherlands alone could manhandle Japan.Japan at this stage is still divided into feudal fiefs and their weapons and military doctrines are much antiquated.
 
He'd get as far as Ryukyu before someone (Shogunate, China, Spain, etc.) would smack him and his forces down. Realistically, someone with his ambition would do best to try and get the reins of power in Japan (ALL Japan, not a feudal domain) before trying anything that audacious. And in that case, I think cooler heads would prevail so the Ryukyus and probably Sakhalin/Kuriles (not under Russian at the time) would be the extent of his expansionist efforts. That said, he'd definitely set Japan down the path they'd follow in the early 20th century.
 
Hehehe. No. They can barely take down Korea at this point.

If they're willing to have a nominal vassal in the Philippines (pissing off the Great Powers of Europe), they could support Novales. But even that is a long shot.
 
He'd get as far as Ryukyu before someone (Shogunate, China, Spain, etc.) would smack him and his forces down. Realistically, someone with his ambition would do best to try and get the reins of power in Japan (ALL Japan, not a feudal domain) before trying anything that audacious. And in that case, I think cooler heads would prevail so the Ryukyus and probably Sakhalin/Kuriles (not under Russian at the time) would be the extent of his expansionist efforts. That said, he'd definitely set Japan down the path they'd follow in the early 20th century.

Interestingly enough (from Wikipedia) Japan could have had them earlier as well. Europeans were visiting Sakhalin alarmed Japan and proclaimed sovereignty over it on 1809.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakhalin#European_and_Japanese_exploration
 
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