Japan's Meiji Emperor passes away in August 1878

CaliGuy

Banned
What if Japan's Meiji Emperor would have passed away in August 1878? After all, in August 1878, Emperor Meiji had no living male children and also had none on the way:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Meiji#Concubines_and_children

Thus, the new Japanese Emperor would have probably been needed to have picked from one of the Japanese cadet branches. However, who would the new Japanese Emperor be in this scenario? Also, would the new Japanese Emperor have been a more active Emperor than Meiji was? After all, as far as I know, the Japanese Emperor's was officially restored (but generally not used--with the genro making the main decisions instead) as a result of the Meiji Restoration a decade earlier. Thus, theoretically speaking, the new Japanese Emperor had some power which he could have used if he wanted to.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
Welp, there's four "cadet branches" that can die off and be revived should the Emperor decide. The situation is more complex than that, but basically consider them as back-ups for situations like these when the Emperor dies without a male son. The Japanese consider the Imperial line to be a single dynasty with an unbroken succession since the days of prehistory. This is their way of ensuring it in the modern era, expect not after 1947 when it was tossed out.

So the candidates are as follows:

- Fushimi-no-miya: Prince Fushimi Sadanaru, he became a career officer in OTL. Maybe a little young for the gig as he's only age 20 as of 1878 but he's the best choice. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Fushimi_Sadanaru
- Katsura-no-miya: A woman by the name of Princess Sumiko held the position believe it or not. I don't think she'd get the gig, she's too old and also a woman. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Sumiko
- Arisugawa-no-miya: Effectively dead as of 1871 when the head resigned. Apparently you can do that. Wasn't revived until 1886.
- Kan'in-no-miya: Prince Kan'in Kotohito who was originally meant to be a buddhist monk is the guy for this branch. He's 13 in 1878. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Kan'in_Kotohito

I don't know the specifics of the houses or if people can be picked from outside of the houses or what really. I don't know much about Japanese dynastic law so I suggest you do your own research to verify what I'm writing here. In 1878 if Meiji dies, then you're left with Prince Fushimi Sadanaru as far as I understand.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Welp, there's four "cadet branches" that can die off and be revived should the Emperor decide. The situation is more complex than that, but basically consider them as back-ups for situations like these when the Emperor dies without a male son. The Japanese consider the Imperial line to be a single dynasty with an unbroken succession since the days of prehistory. This is their way of ensuring it in the modern era, expect not after 1947 when it was tossed out.

So the candidates are as follows:

- Fushimi-no-miya: Prince Fushimi Sadanaru, he became a career officer in OTL. Maybe a little young for the gig as he's only age 20 as of 1878 but he's the best choice. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Fushimi_Sadanaru
- Katsura-no-miya: A woman by the name of Princess Sumiko held the position believe it or not. I don't think she'd get the gig, she's too old and also a woman. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Sumiko
- Arisugawa-no-miya: Effectively dead as of 1871 when the head resigned. Apparently you can do that. Wasn't revived until 1886.
- Kan'in-no-miya: Prince Kan'in Kotohito who was originally meant to be a buddhist monk is the guy for this branch. He's 13 in 1878. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Kan'in_Kotohito

I don't know the specifics of the houses or if people can be picked from outside of the houses or what really. I don't know much about Japanese dynastic law so I suggest you do your own research to verify what I'm writing here. In 1878 if Meiji dies, then you're left with Prince Fushimi Sadanaru as far as I understand.
Thanks for all of this information! :)

Also, though, two questions:

1. Couldn't a young Emperor be to the genro's advantage due to his inexperience and (likely) lack of ambition?
2. In the long(er)-run, could we see a more ambitious Japanese Emperor in this TL in comparison to our TL?
 
Thanks for all of this information! :)

Also, though, two questions:

1. Couldn't a young Emperor be to the genro's advantage due to his inexperience and (likely) lack of ambition?
2. In the long(er)-run, could we see a more ambitious Japanese Emperor in this TL in comparison to our TL?

1. For the genro, sure. That's possible, though it's hard to pick the 13 year old over the 20 year old with some military experience under his belt.
2. I don't know. Meiji is kind of a big deal. Prince Fushimi seems like he was a rather milquetoast general without much interest in politics, never mind administration. Prince Kan'in however was really into anti-American politics and was a staunch Imperialist during WW2. He also was a big supporter of state Shintoism and authorized using poison gas in China as well as being the youngest field marshal in 1919. He could be interesting, although perhaps for the wrong reasons. And to imagine, Prince Kan'in was to be a Buddhist monk before he became a Prince!
 

CaliGuy

Banned
1. For the genro, sure. That's possible, though it's hard to pick the 13 year old over the 20 year old with some military experience under his belt.

Couldn't the genro (or whomever) justify this by saying that it's God's will (or whatever) for the 13-year-old to become Japanese Emperor, though?

2. I don't know. Meiji is kind of a big deal.

In what ways?

Prince Fushimi seems like he was a rather milquetoast general without much interest in politics, never mind administration. Prince Kan'in however was really into anti-American politics and was a staunch Imperialist during WW2. He also was a big supporter of state Shintoism and authorized using poison gas in China as well as being the youngest field marshal in 1919. He could be interesting, although perhaps for the wrong reasons. And to imagine, Prince Kan'in was to be a Buddhist monk before he became a Prince!

Thanks for this information! :)

Also, if Kan'in becomes the new Japanese Emperor, could we gradually see an even more aggressive and assertive Japanese foreign policy? Indeed, even in 1884-1885, while still (barely) a teenager, could an Emperor Kan'in try getting the genro to agree to enter the Sino-French War so that Japan could acquire some concessions at China's expense?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
God damn the idea of a Japanese empress regnant makes me happy. :D
Couldn't we see one in the future in our TL if the Japanese Imperial male line will eventually die out (either with Hisahito or with his descendants)?
 

Asami

Banned
Couldn't we see one in the future in our TL if the Japanese Imperial male line will eventually die out (either with Hisahito or with his descendants)?

Well, prior to the birth of Hisahito, Princess Aiko was the future heir, which was causing some stir and a movement to change the succession law. With the boy's birth, she has once again been pushed to the back-burner. It's entirely possible, should the circumstances arise, that we have Japan change their succession laws to allow a woman to ascend; it's not impossible.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
Well, prior to the birth of Hisahito's son, Princess Aiko was the future heir, which was causing some stir and a movement to change the succession law. With the boy's birth, she has once again been pushed to the back-burner. It's entirely possible, should the circumstances arise, that we have Japan change their succession laws to allow a woman to ascend; it's not impossible.
Yeah, I seem to recall that a proposal to allow women to succeed to the Japanese throne came close to being passed in 2006-2007 but ended up being shelved after Hisahito's birth.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, Yes, Japan will have to eventually allow women to succeed to the throne (even if the male line survives; after all, equality is equality); indeed, unlike in the 1800s or early 1900s, there is no way in Hell that the Japanese would agree to have a male cadet branch member (which were no longer a part of the Japanese royal family after 1947) to become their Emperor in place of a female Empress!
 

Asami

Banned
Well, in the 21st century, those branches are extinct. Any members thereof were cast out of the Imperial Family.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well, in the 21st century, those branches are extinct. Any members thereof were cast out of the Imperial Family.
There was some minor talk of putting those branches back into the royal family before Hisahito was born, but this talk went nowhere (probably for various reasons).
 
Couldn't the genro (or whomever) justify this by saying that it's God's will (or whatever) for the 13-year-old to become Japanese Emperor, though?
Anything is possible, though supporters of Prince Fushimi, where ever they might be would rally to support him. Japan was still in rocky circumstances economically and politically as of 1878 and Meiji passing away certainly wouldn't assist in making the government any more stable. You likely wouldn't see the old Shogunate supporters rise up as the han system was done and over with at that point, but it the two factions might come to blows if the situation has significant enough tinder for the fire.

In what ways?
Meiji is a pretty important Emperor due to his role as a transitional figure and was also pretty ambitious or at least held onto power for a very long time. Prince Fushimi wouldn't really be able to do as he doesn't seem like the type to push in any which direction and Kan'in is too young to do much imo. Even Fushimi is quite young. The largest problem would be that the Genro had no connection to either Prince Fushimi or Prince Kan'in so they would need to build up a rapport before either Prince could really give any effect on policy whatsoever. Even Meiji didn't have much influence and he appointed the guys.

Also, if Kan'in becomes the new Japanese Emperor, could we gradually see an even more aggressive and assertive Japanese foreign policy? Indeed, even in 1884-1885, while still (barely) a teenager, could an Emperor Kan'in try getting the genro to agree to enter the Sino-French War so that Japan could acquire some concessions at China's expense?
Nah, the Emperor had basically zero influence. You could argue that Meiji had some influence based on who he was and he relation to the Genro who ran the country, but I'd say no. Anything is possible I suppose though. The big change will be that if someone tried to overthrow the government and do something akin to a "Showa Restoration" which was attempted and lobbied for multiple times, then you'd see Prince Kan'in pulling out all the stops to overthrow the government in tandem with the military.
 
The successor would have made very little difference by that time in Japan, as the emperor was just a figure head for the most part, similar to most of Europe at the time.
The people actually in power, the ones who 'restored the Emperor', to break the Shogun's power, would still be the same people as in OTL. The emperor was basicly neutered, and history would thus progress largely the same as in OTL, just with the Japanese having different emperors.
 
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