Japan's Greatest Possible Extent

as yet another part of the timeline im working on, japan remains a monarchy and begins to expand starting at around the same time it did OTL (im pretty sure thats in 1931 with the conquest of manchuria) and--in teh current version--stays that way through to 2032. there's no WW2 in this timeline, so japan would presumably continue expanding outward into the pacific and continental asia (but i was planning to keep it so that china still holds the greater part of the continent; maybe japan would just be limited to the korean peninsula). but what's the maximum extent of islands and other regions that japan could conquer and annex into their proper empire? australia and new zealand should still remain british or independent, and hawaii still remain american, but what else? could they perhaps expand to and annex parts of indonesia and even get to the indian ocean? or would they eventually try conquering hawaii and parts of the americas anyway? what would teh reactions of other powers in teh area be?
 

Typo

Banned
Japan can hold down Taiwan indefinitely without a war with the west.

Korea is more...iffy it has enough population so that a nationalist revolt would seriously threaten Japanese rule there.

Manchuria is probably untenable on the long run, assuming China gets unified by a movement as strong as the CCP OTL. A unified China would confront Japan trying to get the territory back: holding down a large Ethnic Han territory with a united China is going to be hard.

The European colonies....I dunno, I guess Japan can hold out against UK and France if they are distracted by Germany or Russia. But I could see if things get really desperate for UK they might accept a Japanese fait accompli over the Dutch colonies. But if the US is going to be hostile than it's gonna look like OTL.
 
im kindof envisioning a korean war-type scenario where japan and china go to war over manchuria and korea. any ideas on there being a DMZ comparable to the OTL one?
 
as yet another part of the timeline im working on, japan remains a monarchy and begins to expand starting at around the same time it did OTL (im pretty sure thats in 1931 with the conquest of manchuria)


So Japan grabbing the Ryukyus in 1609, Taiwan in 1895, Korea in 1910, and various other bits of China and Manchuria before 1931 don't count as "expansion"?
 
like i said, i was pretty sure; i only looked into it very briefly before posting :rolleyes: so, yeah, i was wrong there
 
One could have a by far larger Japanese expansion if they take their Meiji sooner. This provides the Japanese with earlier expansion, more time to integrate Korea and Taiwan, and less opponents/more open space for expansion. It may even lead to Japan conquering the Philippines from Spain. The potential was there.

Another approach would be to avoid isolationism completely. If the Tukogawa shogunes were expansionistic from the start and open-minded to new European ideas.
 
Mitsuhide Akechi stays loyal and thus no Honnoji Rebellion occurs. Japan is unified by Nobunaga Oda.

Nobunaga was very quick to incorporate western advances in order to make his clan, and ultimately Japan, stronger. Assuming his successors follow his example, and the absence of a Nobunaga assassination prevents Ieyasu Tokugawa from dicking around, you'd have a strong Japan that manages to avoid isolationism altogether.

Hell, by the time the United States gets to the west coast of North America, Japan would probably be a major player in the Pacific as far as getting colonies and the like established.

The United States might end up limited to Hawaii as far as grabbing Pacific islands goes.

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So yeah. A Japan that can go expansionist sooner. Have more time to assimilate the people they conquer. I could definitely see a Japanese Phillipines. Let's not forget Japan would be getting in on those lopsided treaties against China.

Super Japan.
 

Susano

Banned
Greatest Possible extent for how long? After all, IOTL all colonial Empires decolonised. I think Japan could in theory, with an early enough PoD build up quite a larger colonial Empire than it did IOTL, but I also think it will eventually decolonise...
 
there's no WW2 in this timeline, so japan would presumably continue expanding outward into the pacific and continental asia (but i was planning to keep it so that china still holds the greater part of the continent; maybe japan would just be limited to the korean peninsula).

In your timeline, you need a very strong Emperor (not Hiro-Hito) who will be able to punish the officers of Japanese Army in Korea and Manchuria who started fights and invaded chinese territories without orders.

but what's the maximum extent of islands and other regions that japan could conquer and annex into their proper empire? australia and new zealand should still remain british or independent, and hawaii still remain american, but what else? could they perhaps expand to and annex parts of indonesia and even get to the indian ocean? or would they eventually try conquering hawaii and parts of the americas anyway? what would teh reactions of other powers in teh area be?

Try to conquer Hawai or any parts of the America will trigger a war with the USA and the outcome we know : total defeat of Japan and occupation of the country and probably atomic bombing

Try to conquer Philippines after the USA gave this country independance will also trigger a war against the USA.

Try to expand in Mongolia or in soviet zone of influence in northern China will trigger a war with the Soviet Union and a total defeat of Japan on the mainland and soviet conquest of Korea + atomic bomb on Japan when the SU will have one to pressure a peace treaty...

Try to conquer Oceania : Australia, New Zealand, british territories in central and southern Pacific, french territories in the Pacific : New Caledonia, French Polynesia will trigger war against France and UK. Even if one of the country is attacked, the second will join the fight by fear for it's own possessions... So probably a defeat and eventually a atomic bombing both UK and France. UK in 1952 with american help, France in 1960 without americain help...

Attacks on the french Indochina, british Malaya, Borneo, Singapour, Birma or India or any Commonwealth territory will trigger a war against France and UK.

If Japan wait for the decolonisation, these countries will probably decolonised pacifically and be a member of the Commonwealth or a french-sponsored organisation with the same goals and organisation...

Attacks on Dutch Indonesia will mean a conflict against the Dutch and probably the French and the British, because they will fear that the Japanese will attack their colonial possessions next...

So no, Japan will never expand in Asia, in America or in the Pacific without a war against the USA or a coalition from Europe. And expansion in China will trigger embargo from the western powers and the USA... And a kind of Pacific War because Japan is not able to continue war without oil and importations from these countries.

So a big Japan will have an Empire with the Ryukyu, Taiwan, Korea (if able to prevent rebellion and independance supported for exemple by a united China or the SU) and maybe a part or all of Manchuria but with a big ennemy in any kinf of united China... Maybe Japan will be able to keep some minors territories in coastal China : Hainan island, some Hong-Kong style territories...

Edit :

Best way to keep a asiatic empire, prevent any kind of unification of China. Very difficult with the KMT or the CCP supported by western allies or the SU...
 
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Guys

I think if Japan got into Manchuria early enough, presuming POD after 1900, and encouraged settlement while discouraging Chinese they might stand a decent chance of holding it. Also possibly, with a slightly different development in the Russian civil war you might see it hold the region south of the Amur. That would seriously limit Soviet development in the Far East.

However, without major butterflies, I can't see them getting much further than that without a major war with a power they can't have much hope of winning.

Steve
 

Typo

Banned
The problem is that there are already 30 million Han Chinese, and 700,000 other nationals already in Manchuria in the 1930s, there's no way you can get enough Japanese to settle there to even form a significant minority without Stalinist style forced resettlement and the willingness to ruin Japan proper with the sheer amount of people moving out. Even in 1900s there were already 15 million people there, mostly Han Chinese while the entirety of Japan had 45 million people.
 
To be honest, Japan's best bet on holding Manchuria is probably making the restored Manchu dynasty work.

That's the only way you're going to give those 30 million people there some stake in the place.

Have Japan's military occupation of the region be less intense and throw in a good propagandist who can make Mao out to be a red fanatic and the KMT as a corrupt, inept organization(not particularly hard since there's a lot of truth to this) and paint Japan as a staunch ally bringing stability to the region and safeguarding China from the red menace to the north, you could start winning hearts and minds concievably.

Though yeah, a lot would have to happen for Japan to accept this philosophy.
 

Typo

Banned
The problem with that is the Qing has already being utterly discredited by 1930s and would obviously be pawns of Japan in Manchuria, it's kinda like if some foreign power try to revive the CSA as a mean of occupying the US.
 
the Home Islands, Sakhalin, the Ryukus, Taiwan, and parts of Micronesia could have been held indefinitely. The rest would have been lost once decolonization became unstoppable.
 
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