Okay, let's think of an alternate timeline where Japan wins the Pacific heater of WW2. Or at least manages to make the war so painful for the US early on that they don't go foo far into things.
I see some divergent points:
1. Japan does not fall into the Marco Polo bridge incidents or the response is a lot more restrained, Chiang does not consider this his last measure/straw-that-broke-the-camel's-back limit for massive mobilization etc. Or the Japanese tries to limit their respond and not conquer all of China.
2. The Japanese don't mess up and send the message a few minutes before the Pearl Harbor battle removing the 'dastardly attack' propaganda the US has....or lessens it substantially.
3. The Pearl Harbor attack is more effective and Yamamoto gambles and sends more waves of fighters. The fighters sink more US warships and fucks up the 'salvageable' ones (like the one beached) a lot more, to the point of them being unsalvgeble - or to emotional to ressurrect a la Arizona. The United States fuel facilities are also bombed and destroyed. Dry Docks and submarine facilities are also hit. Basically, the things -not- hit in OTL Pearl Harbor IS hit in ATL Pearl Harbor
4. The Battle of Midway losses are more evenly matched; the US carriers are sunk in the battle as well - something that delays the US response.
5. The Phillipine Campaign goes a lot worse for the US navy because radar (perhaps the Soviet Union gave Japan radar plans or tech somehow - fitting with OTL Japan getting intel from the Soviet Union to keep Japan from attacking the USSR/thinking they are friendly neutrals). The US navy takes afar heavier casualties from their carrier force and landing forces, but ATL Japanese losses are similar?
6. The Japanese develop better tanks which make land campaigns against US marines more effective and giving a more balanced casualty rate compared to the Japanese.
Where else can you see ATL ideas made by Japan that can result in a 'victory' (Japan keeping most of its' empire') or keeping the US away at least. Oh, and there's the 'Japan stays afloat after the western European powers are devastated harder than OTL)
Also, anti-colonialist militias in the former colonies and a more effective plan to take India out of the war via propaganda....
EDIT: I sesrched for other threads and did not find any...though the search was a bit messed up for some reason now.