Actually the Luftwaffe had much higher accident rates then the Western Air Forces. They operated with a more devil may care attitude, and suffered from a shortage of instrument rated pilots, particularly in the Fighter Arm. The rapid build up of the Luftwaffe in the mid 30's forced the Germans to cut corners. In the Winter of 43-44 the weather over Germany was so bad the 8th Air Force had to blind bomb by radar. The Luftwaffe Fighters still had to go up, an try to intercept the bombers. They lost very few fighters in combat, but suffered many times more operational loses.
As for the ME-262 it was an advanced program that was both delayed, and rushed. The Germans were short on the strategic metals needed to make heat resistant turbine blades. The throttle controls were a work in progress, leading to frequent engine stalls. Allied Jets were far more reliable, because the programs were less rushed, they had access to raw materials, and they had extensive testing programs. The Germans did hit on swept wings, so the Meteor, Comet, and Shooting Star were slower, by at least 50mph, but could turn better, and make quicker throttle changes. I also believe the ME-262 had a higher service ceiling as well.
The Germans seem to have built 1,200-1,400 Me-262's, but only 200-300 ever saw combat. Lack of fuel, and the general collapse of industry, and the transportation system in the last year of the war prevented many weapons, and supplies from being delivered to frontline units. Even when a large group of ME-262's were able to launch a mass attack, and shootdown 65 B-17's in one battle it had no effect on the Air War, Allied Air power was simply overwhelming. My favorite Attack Plane in WWII is the A-26 Invader. It had a top speed of over 350mph, and could attack ground targets at 300mph. She often carried 14, 50cal machineguns, 10, 5" HVAR rockets, and 2 tons of bombs. A few of them could really ruin you whole day.
Like the Civil War I'm very skeptical of any scenario were the Axis wins the war. The deck is just too badly stacked against them. They might have advanced further, and held out longer, but the writing was on the wall. Once all the Allies are united against them it's only a matter of time, and lives, the outcome is almost assured.