Japanese victory in the pacific war - is it really ASB?

[marathag]

This is not the definition of "just fine." It's just enough to keep the oil flowing and buy some time for Tokyo. Time is still not on its side - the completion of the Two Ocean Navy act is going to give America

They need to stay out of War with the Western Powers until Nazi Germany is defeated, and the grim realization that Communism was not much better,sets in at London and Washington for the Cold War.
What better Ally, than one who prematurely fought the Communists in 1939?

 

[Alexniko]

Not sure he's saying *that*. The question really is, what can Japan do to avert the imposition of the oil embargo by the Western powers?

I suspect that a withdrawal from ALL of Indochina will be needed, before long; but that would very likely be sufficient.

This is not the definition of "just fine." It's just enough to keep the oil flowing and buy some time for Tokyo. Time is still not on its side - the completion of the Two Ocean Navy act is going to give America enormous leverage over Japan, and yes, the Japanese economy can't sustain that kind of war tempo for very long - but anything is better than the course it decided to take in 1941.

Actually a retreat from northern (and with this, all) of Indochina in early to mid 1941 would be a very good move for the japanese.

1. Their goal of occupying the countries north is somewhat accomplished allready (after all they have stopped the flow of army to the KMT via the Indochina route for half a year).

2. It would be a sign of goodwill to the western public, that Japan apparently wasn't that aggressive after all, that they had no interest in conquering SEA ( "and weren't the chinese just as responsible for the escalation of the war, as the japanese were? Didn't Chiang Kai Shek provoke aswell? Moreover the KMT government wasn't the most democratic one either"). This would make it a lot harder for the US to justify punitive actions or even a potential war against Japan. Of course the japanese would still be seen as the larger of the two badies (you know, because of their warcrimes). But at this time a lot of horrible things were happening all over the world, and Germany clearly was worse (at least in the perception. Its hard to compare two imperialist and fascist nations that both commited the most horrible crimes, and say which one was "better" and which was worse).

 

[Lee-Sensei]

They need to stay out of War with the Western Powers until Nazi Germany is defeated, and the grim realization that Communism was not much better,sets in at London and Washington for the Cold War.
What better Ally, than one who prematurely fought the Communists in 1939?

This. Japan doesn’t have a lot of options for expansion during WW2, since it will inevitably draw them into a conflict with the United States. There best bet is to stay out of it.

 

[Belisarius II]

Hey, this would make a great timeline.

No doubt american aid to the KMT would increase massively over time (the more progress Japan makes, the more the western powers will send. They're not stupid after all, and a japanese victory in China would heavily harm their interests in the region). I never said that a japanese victory in China was certain, but without the Great East Asian War Japan has a lot more troops and ressources to fight this war. China would be their only front.

Also, it's not that the US and GB didn't send massive aid to the KMT in OTL, especially after the war began (via the Burma road any the Himalayas). And still the japanese archieved the massive victories they did in 1944.

So I think it's speculative wheater the Allies would send more material aid in this TL, than they did in OTL. Without a Great East Asian War the KMT government isn't seen as a vital ally, but rather as a force that benefits the western powers interests better, than their rival (i.e. Japan). However, at this point, the US and GB have s more important theatre to focus on, one where their interests are a lot more threatened. Yes Japan is still seen as a major threat, but if it doesn't expand further SEA (at least not by military means) they continue to be a secondary rival (even in OTL it was allways "Germany first" for the american government and people, both before the war started and afterwards).

So material aid to the KMT would be less than in OTL (in my opinion). And even if it wasn't, it would have to be WAY more than in OTL to tip the balance in the Chinese United Fronts favour favour. In OTL massive japanese ressources were tied up in the pacific, over 500k soldiers were fighting in SEA, the USN obliterated the japanese merchant fleet and the USAF crippled Japans industry through strategic bombing. And, again, they still archieved phenomenal victories and had a kill ratio of 20-40 to 1 in the later stage of the war. In this TL none of this happens, so again, a LOT of aid (allmost a rediculous amount) would be needed to turn the tide of the war or even force a stalemate (again, I don't say a japanese victory is granted, but it's very possible).

To why post-colonial nations would ally themselves with Japan: Your point's not wrong. Communism would be very popular amongst nationaal liberation movements. Yet, "pro-japanese" is not an ideology or something. And it's not that there were no right wing regimes during the OTL cold war, which searched for backer against a regional rival or their own people. More importantly, Japan will mainly expand their sphere of influence the way every great capitalist power does most of the time: Via capital export and economic dependencies. You think all those third world countries were alligned to the US, because their people loved america so much? And if the people of this nations made a move (or even if the regime fell out of favour), the US had enough influence allready to crush them (see Chile, Grenada, Iran, Panama, Iraq, even Turkey and Greece whose governments weren't even harming US interests but were considered "too soft on communism"). And I think we can all agree that Imperial Japan would be using even more open violence and terror to keep their sphere umder control.

On wheater Japan would be economicly isolated and their devemopement hampered: No, I don't think so. Geopollitics is about insterests and profits, and not about morality (sadly thats the way it is, at least how it is nowadays and how it has been in the past). In OTL, before the embargo, the US was Japans most important trading partner. The US trade massively woth Nazi Germany in the 30s. With Britain, slaughtering people in India, with France during the 50s when they used the most brutal anti-insurgency methods in Algeria and Indochina.
So its possible that there might be economic warfare and tactical embargoes from time to time, but overall they would continue to trade, just because both sides can get a lot out of it. And though Japan and the US would be rivals, communism and soviet-backed national-liberation movements would be the number 1 threat to their power. And (hypotheticly) even without trade, the Empire and its sphere would be massive in this scenario. And, though they wouldn't receive the massive economic aid from the US (not beeing the american alligned bullwark against communism they were in OTL) they did on OTL, Japam would be alot more powerfull than in OTL, and it's economy a lot larger. I mean, they (at least) control China, Manchuria, Korea, Formosa and parts of SEA. How can you say their economy would actually be weaker than in OTL?

The Japan in your timeline would most likely lose Manchuria, and Korea after Germany falls in 1945. We then have a post war Korea united under Communism. The Vietminh got their chance to start an armed movement because of the chaos of the Japanese occupation. At least in the immediate post war years the French would be in solid control of Indochina. Either regime in China will be hostile to Japan, as would the Soviet Union. The Republic of China might be on Hainan Island. The DEI are still there. The Philippines is an independent democratic Republic, under American protection. Malaya, and Singapore are still under British domination. Thailand is pro Western, Burma is up in the air, India is none-aligned. The Atomic Bomb was never used in war, which changes the dynamic for the nuclear arms race.

Your timeline Japan isn't in the Western Camp, it's trying to undermine Western Interests in Asia. It still has a Right Wing Nationalist Government under military domination, with Imperialist ambitions. That's not the same as a Third World Country, with an anti Marxist military dictatorship willing to be a Western Client State. This Japan is still a semi literate society, with a command economy. It's still in a naval arms race with the United States.

Post War Japan became the worlds third biggest economy because it was structurally different then pre war Japan. The MacArthur Constitution gave Japan a functioning liberal democracy, with individual rights, women's suffrage, universal adult voting franchise, and rule of law. The militaries control over the government, and economy was eliminated. The education system was rebuilt, and universal primary, and secondary education was established. Japan became the Keystone of American Asian policy. Foreign investment grow dramatically, Japan was given access to Western credit, commodities, and trading markets, and the USN guaranteed free use of the worlds shipping routes. Japan shared in Western technology transfers.

Do you really think in the 1970's millions of Americans would be driving cars, imported from a hostile Japan? Will Western Capital pour into militaristic Japan? Will countries open their domestic markets to Japanese imports? Will credit markets be fully available to Japan? Militarist Japan can't be fighting a Cold War with the West, and get full access to global markets, any more then the Soviet Union could. Without the McArthur internal reforms a semi literate, semi industrialized Japan can't be a modern world power. China can do it today because it has 10 times the population of Japan, and that many people generate a lot of economic activity.

Japan is more dependent then any other major power on the import of raw materials, and the export of finished products. For the system to work they have to free access to global markets. Pre WWII the world economy was much more protectionist, and Japan believed they needed an empire to give them their own closed market. So without an empire, and limited access to global markets Japans growth would be slower then in the OTL. Militaristic Japan in 2020 wouldn't be nearly as wealthy as OTL Japan is.

 

[Belisarius II]

Actually a retreat from northern (and with this, all) of Indochina in early to mid 1941 would be a very good move for the japanese.

1. Their goal of occupying the countries north is somewhat accomplished allready (after all they have stopped the flow of army to the KMT via the Indochina route for half a year).

2. It would be a sign of goodwill to the western public, that Japan apparently wasn't that aggressive after all, that they had no interest in conquering SEA ( "and weren't the chinese just as responsible for the escalation of the war, as the japanese were? Didn't Chiang Kai Shek provoke aswell? Moreover the KMT government wasn't the most democratic one either"). This would make it a lot harder for the US to justify punitive actions or even a potential war against Japan. Of course the japanese would still be seen as the larger of the two badies (you know, because of their warcrimes). But at this time a lot of horrible things were happening all over the world, and Germany clearly was worse (at least in the perception. Its hard to compare two imperialist and fascist nations that both commited the most horrible crimes, and say which one was "better" and which was worse).

Leaving Indochina would delay the imposition of an oil embargo, but doesn't stop the drift toward war. As long as the China War is going on relations will continue to get worse. If the Japanese withdraw from northern Indochina the rail line from Hanoi, and Haiphong into china would be reopened. The Burma Road stays open. No China wasn't responsible for the war. Japan was on it's territory, and using force to expand it's control. American support for China wasn't based on China being democratic. American elites, and the general public had a romantic, aspirational attachment with China. American opinion was horrified by Japanese atrocities. Seeing heads on fences didn't endear American movie goers to Japan. Being allied with Hitler didn't inspirer confidence in Japan's motives ether.

The perception was that the horrible things that were happening around the world in those years were being perpetuated by the Axis Powers, including Japan. Germany wasn't clearly worse. The Nazi Holocaust didn't get into full swing until the Invasion of the Soviet Union in the Summer of 1941. Americans had been seeing the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Chinese Civilians for years in their News Reels. The Nazi Holocaust didn't have a film record till after the war. American News Papers, and Magazines widely covered Japanese Atrocities, and pro Chinese Authors like Pearl Buck were widely read. Support for China was an easy sell for the American People.

 

[Alexniko]

Leaving Indochina would delay the imposition of an oil embargo, but doesn't stop the drift toward war. As long as the China War is going on relations will continue to get worse. If the Japanese withdraw from northern Indochina the rail line from Hanoi, and Haiphong into china would be reopened.

What do you base that on? And if the war in China had sufficed for the US to put and oil embargo on Japan, why wasn't it established in 1937 then?

 

[Belisarius II]

What do you base that on? And if the war in China had sufficed for the US to put and oil embargo on Japan, why wasn't it established in 1937 then?

I base it the trajectory of Japanese American relations. The move into Southern Indochina was a sharp escalation, but relations had been getting steadily worse since 1937. Japan had been assuring the United States since 1937 that they wanted to resolve the "China Incident" peacefully. As the war dragged on it became increasingly clear Japan was only interested in conquering China. Joining the Axis in September 1940 went a long way toward destroying American faith in any good intentions on the part of Japan. By 1941 the death toll in China was reaching into the millions, and the American Government, and People were becoming increasingly outraged. The United States wasn't going to sit by, with it hands folded indefinitely.

 

[Athelstane]

I base it the trajectory of Japanese American relations. The move into Southern Indochina was a sharp escalation, but relations had been getting steadily worse since 1937. Japan had been assuring the United States since 1937 that they wanted to resolve the "China Incident" peacefully. As the war dragged on it became increasingly clear Japan was only interested in conquering China. Joining the Axis in September 1940 went a long way toward destroying American faith in any good intentions on the part of Japan. By 1941 the death toll in China was reaching into the millions, and the American Government, and People were becoming increasingly outraged. The United States wasn't going to sit by, with it hands folded indefinitely.

Talk of a "drift," though, is not sufficient. There has to be some tangible incident to trigger a declaration of war by Congress - American ships start getting sunk by the IJN, etc.

Popular anger over Japanese atrocities in China is not enough to do it.

 

[RanulfC]

It;s difficult to get plans that are more objectively insane than OTL Japanese plans, but we have people on this site who repeatedly manage it.

Some are called to greatness

How boring this place would be without OPERATION WIGHT LION and the Frisian Islands.

Hey next you'll be telling me that "Bunny Hopping" in full kit isn't an effective defense tactic in a fire fight and Germany couldn't have won the war by simply dropping a para-brigade on London on the turn between the Resource Collection turn and the Allocation Turn and re-directing all the Allied resources back to Gemany...

The Idea that the American/Philippine Army could keep the Japanese from landing was completely unrealistic. Only the Philippine Scouts were fully trained. They might have been able to defend Luzon in 6 months, or a year, but not in December 1941. MacArthur took decades of planning and throw it out the window, then had to scramble back to plan A at the last minute. Plan Orange called for food supplies in Bataan for 43,000 men for 6 months, they never had that. With over 80,000 drawing rations the Army was on 1/2 rations from the start of the battle. Again realistic planning would have avoided the starvation of the army.

You're recalling that the US Army in the Philippines had been drawing down since the late-20s in anticipation of the Philippines going from "Commonwealth" to fully independant nation as planned right? MacArthur was only nominally a "US" General by this time having been 'hired' to raise and train the "national" Phlippines Army of which the "Scouts" were the aimed at being the first (and cadre) unit? By treaty the US wasn't allowed to garrison or improve the defenses so they were letting them fall apart till around 1937-ish when the pre-war ramp up began. (The Phlippeans couldn't afford to keep them up) Mac gets a lot of greif on this site, (and for the most part rightly so) but we need to keep in mind that by the 1935 when Mac took over in the Philippines the 'plan' was for them to defend themselves with only a 'possible' relief available from the US and no realistic naval support. War Plan Orange had assumed a much higher US priority on the Philippines than the US could or would actually have in place by 1941 and everyone knew it. Mac and the Philippines were pretty much on their own until too late. Had the US managed to get the planned deployed NG units to the Philippines before things actually kicked off then Mac's plan might have worked and that's what the assumption was. Things did not work out as assumed and switching back to WPO would have been a nightmare.

Randy

 

[Belisarius II]

Talk of a "drift," though, is not sufficient. There has to be some tangible incident to trigger a declaration of war by Congress - American ships start getting sunk by the IJN, etc.

Popular anger over Japanese atrocities in China is not enough to do it.

I never said the United States would declare war. We were talking about the imposition of sanctions. The ultimate sanction was an oil embargo. The U.S. had been imposing increasingly serious economic sanctions on Japan from 1939 on. The U.S. extended Lendlease military, and economic aid to China. Sanctions were only going to get tighter, and the pressure on the Japanese economy was only going to increase. At some point probable in 1942 the U.S. would get to a total oil embargo, there were already partial oil sanctions. Ending the China War was the only way to get off the railroad track to war.

 

[Athelstane]

At some point probable in 1942 the U.S. would get to a total oil embargo

I'm not at all clear that this would have happened, absent the Japanese intervention into French Indochina.

 

[Belisarius II]

I'm not at all clear that this would have happened, absent the Japanese intervention into French Indochina.

So what was going to happen to change the direction events were taking? The China War was dragging on, the Japanese were becoming more desperate to bring it to an end, with a victory. Japan was talking about staying in China till 1970. The United States was applying more pressure on Japan, and both sides were talking past each other. Unless one side backed down they were heading for a collision.

 

[Athelstane]

So what was going to happen to change the direction events were taking? The China War was dragging on, the Japanese were becoming more desperate to bring it to an end, with a victory. Japan was talking about staying in China till 1970. The United States was applying more pressure on Japan, and both sides were talking past each other. Unless one side backed down they were heading for a collision.

I'm saying that the Roosevelt Administration had a red line, and that red line was in Indochina, not China. Why? Because it represented an escalation of Japanese ambitions beyond China.

And the red line only triggered an embargo, not a declaration of war.

So the initiative really was in *Japanese* hands. Roosevelt was constrained politically in what he could do for the Chinese, however sympathetic they may have been to many quarters in America. Some of that constraint was innate public opposition to interventionism. Some of it was also the demands that the Nazi threat was making on American attentions.

If there was going to be a war in the Pacific, Japan had to provoke it. And in 1941, it did.

 

[dabrob]

Gents,

I'm sorry to report that I only discovered this wide ranging thread earlier today ... and hope that you won't mind too much if I resurrect it for a few more posts ?

As I skimmed it's 25 pages, I noted parts of 3 of Athelstane's postings, namely:

from #488 - Talk of a "drift," though, is not sufficient. There has to be some tangible incident to trigger a declaration of war by Congress. American ships start getting sunk by the IJN, etc. Popular anger over Japanese atrocities in China is not enough to do it.

from #473 - Japan did not lose the war at Midway or in the Solomons or in the Philippine Sea, but at Pearl Harbor.

from #139 - The Rape of Nanking? Everyone knew about that. And in China, they were seething.

However, none of you put the 3 of them together to form what I believe was the ONLY possible way that the Japanese Empire MIGHT have survived a Pacific War with the United States (and it's Allies) ... Not to "win" that war in the conventional sense of "winning" but to escape the full weight of that conflict WITH many more oil resources than they began it with. Namely "The Potential Rape of Hawaii"

Historically in 1938, the World was HORRIFIED to learn that the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) had just methodically butchered somewhere between 300,000 and 400,000 mostly Chinese surrendered civilians in that Capital City of China, over a period of some six (6) weeks. The true number will probably never be known.

WITHOUT delving, at this time, into the methods or PoDs of HOW the Japanese might have accomplished it, I believe that the successful December 1941 Japanese invasion and capture of the Hawaiian Islands MIGHT have shocked the American BODY POLITIC enough to force that great democratic Nation to consider an immediate "cease fire" with Japan, as negotiations commenced.

Keeping in mind that the the fall of Hawaii would have effectively CUT the sea lanes of communication to the Philippines, to Wake Island, to Midway Island and to Saipan, etc. thus stranding ANOTHER roughly 200,000 US citizens behind the new Japanese front lines, awaiting capture.

When added to the 500,000 population of Hawaii, less the roughly 160,000 of Japanese ancestry living there in 1941, some 540,000 +/- US citizens for Japan's sole use as "bargaining chips", for the elimination of the American oil / scrap embargoes AND for American acceptance of the new Japanese ownership of the DEI's oil and other resources ... room for the Japanese Empire to grow.

The American BODY POLITIC was SURE to make the hypothetical connection between their 540,000 husbands, wives, fathers, mothers, sons, daughters & cousins and the roughly 350,000 BUTCHERED CHINESE of Nanking, just 3 years earlier. NOT a pretty picture at all. Even if not voiced by the Japanese, their THREAT would have been UN-MISTAKABLE. And already historically demonstrated to be a very, very REAL one.

Also keep in mind that each of those 540,000 captured US citizens had husbands, wives, fathers, mothers, sisters, brothers and cousins of their own back home on CONUS. Roughly 2 MILLION family members who could and would VOTE, thus placing ENORMOUS political pressure on FDR to "do a deal" with the newly victorious Japanese Empire, in order to save their loved ones from certain, HORRIBLE deaths, as the press had just recently reported from the streets of Nanking, China.

That same US BODY POLITIC would still be REELING from the destruction of the US Pacific Fleet and the fall of America's "Fortress of the Pacific" which was how Hawaii had been described for several years prior to the start of that Pacific War. What other way to explain to the VOTERS, the vast sums of US dollars spent to fortify the place, thru the depths of America's Great Depression ? Confidence in both their political leadership AND in every branch of the US Armed Forces would be at all time LOW ... the pressure to get Hawaii AND their loved ones back home safely, truly IMMENSE.

Lest you declare that America would fight on regardless, please allow me to remind you that even tiny Canada bested the US in the War of 1812 (granted with much British Army and Royal Navy help) ... that after 10 years and 50,000 American dead, the Vietnamese sent America packing ... bombing 240 US Marines in Beirut chased away the American military ... how the Iranian kidnapping of some 94 Tehran based Consular officials stopped dead the US government of George Bush Sr. ... and just a few short weeks ago, after 18 years of endless death & combat, the Greatest Military Power that the WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN signed a peace agreement with of all groups, the Taliban.

Would FDR have been able to deny the Japanese invaders of Hawaii a negotiated "peace deal" with the lives of SO MANY Americans (not to mention all of those Philippineos) literally at stake.

We ALL know that the Japanese Empire was DOOMED if their Pacific War with America was not a very, very short one. Certainly by 1943 as the newly built USN warships started arriving in the Pacific theater. The Japanese also knew that those were being built. What better way for Yamamoto, the gambler, to take one REAL roll of the dice with a hypothetical Dec.7'41 invasion of Hawaii ?

With my NOMEX fire suit firmly zippered up, I request your thoughts on the above scenario, gentlemen ?

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Gents,

I'm sorry to report that I only discovered this wide ranging thread earlier today ... and hope that you won't mind too much if I resurrect it for a few more posts ?

As I skimmed it's 25 pages, I noted parts of 3 of Athelstane's postings, namely:

from #488 - Talk of a "drift," though, is not sufficient. There has to be some tangible incident to trigger a declaration of war by Congress. American ships start getting sunk by the IJN, etc. Popular anger over Japanese atrocities in China is not enough to do it.

from #473 - Japan did not lose the war at Midway or in the Solomons or in the Philippine Sea, but at Pearl Harbor.

from #139 - The Rape of Nanking? Everyone knew about that. And in China, they were seething.

However, none of you put the 3 of them together to form what I believe was the ONLY possible way that the Japanese Empire MIGHT have survived a Pacific War with the United States (and it's Allies) ... Not to "win" that war in the conventional sense of "winning" but to escape the full weight of that conflict WITH many more oil resources than they began it with. Namely "The Potential Rape of Hawaii"

Historically in 1938, the World was HORRIFIED to learn that the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) had just methodically butchered somewhere between 300,000 and 400,000 mostly Chinese surrendered civilians in that Capital City of China, over a period of some six (6) weeks. The true number will probably never be known.

WITHOUT delving, at this time, into the methods or PoDs of HOW the Japanese might have accomplished it, I believe that the successful December 1941 Japanese invasion and capture of the Hawaiian Islands MIGHT have shocked the American BODY POLITIC enough to force that great democratic Nation to consider an immediate "cease fire" with Japan, as negotiations commenced.

Keeping in mind that the the fall of Hawaii would have effectively CUT the sea lanes of communication to the Philippines, to Wake Island, to Midway Island and to Saipan, etc. thus stranding ANOTHER roughly 200,000 US citizens behind the new Japanese front lines, awaiting capture.

When added to the 500,000 population of Hawaii, less the roughly 160,000 of Japanese ancestry living there in 1941, some 540,000 +/- US citizens for Japan's sole use as "bargaining chips", for the elimination of the American oil / scrap embargoes AND for American acceptance of the new Japanese ownership of the DEI's oil and other resources ... room for the Japanese Empire to grow.

The American BODY POLITIC was SURE to make the hypothetical connection between their 540,000 husbands, wives, fathers, mothers, sons, daughters & cousins and the roughly 350,000 BUTCHERED CHINESE of Nanking, just 3 years earlier. NOT a pretty picture at all. Even if not voiced by the Japanese, their THREAT would have been UN-MISTAKABLE. And already historically demonstrated to be a very, very REAL one.

Also keep in mind that each of those 540,000 captured US citizens had husbands, wives, fathers, mothers, sisters, brothers and cousins of their own back home on CONUS. Roughly 2 MILLION family members who could and would VOTE, thus placing ENORMOUS political pressure on FDR to "do a deal" with the newly victorious Japanese Empire, in order to save their loved ones from certain, HORRIBLE deaths, as the press had just recently reported from the streets of Nanking, China.

That same US BODY POLITIC would still be REELING from the destruction of the US Pacific Fleet and the fall of America's "Fortress of the Pacific" which was how Hawaii had been described for several years prior to the start of that Pacific War. What other way to explain to the VOTERS, the vast sums of US dollars spent to fortify the place, thru the depths of America's Great Depression ? Confidence in both their political leadership AND in every branch of the US Armed Forces would be at all time LOW ... the pressure to get Hawaii AND their loved ones back home safely, truly IMMENSE.

Lest you declare that America would fight on regardless, please allow me to remind you that even tiny Canada bested the US in the War of 1812 (granted with much British Army and Royal Navy help) ... that after 10 years and 50,000 American dead, the Vietnamese sent America packing ... bombing 240 US Marines in Beirut chased away the American military ... how the Iranian kidnapping of some 94 Tehran based Consular officials stopped dead the US government of George Bush Sr. ... and just a few short weeks ago, after 18 years of endless death & combat, the Greatest Military Power that the WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN signed a peace agreement with of all groups, the Taliban.

Would FDR have been able to deny the Japanese invaders of Hawaii a negotiated "peace deal" with the lives of SO MANY Americans (not to mention all of those Philippineos) literally at stake.

We ALL know that the Japanese Empire was DOOMED if their Pacific War with America was not a very, very short one. Certainly by 1943 as the newly built USN warships started arriving in the Pacific theater. The Japanese also knew that those were being built. What better way for Yamamoto, the gambler, to take one REAL roll of the dice with a hypothetical Dec.7'41 invasion of Hawaii ?

With my NOMEX fire suit firmly zippered up, I request your thoughts on the above scenario, gentlemen ?

The problem with that plan is even if by some mircale it works, that the moment America gets its citizens back safely on the mainland Japan is going to find itself back at war with a nation that has had the time to finish the two ocean navy act and nothing Japan has can stop that fleet

 

[dabrob]

Posssibly but America has a LONG history of honoring her deals ... for instance North Korea has yet to be reduced to a field of atomic glass (though there is always tomorrow) ... ditto for Vietnam ... with a war with Germany still ongoing there is an arguement to be made that America would just prefer to "get back to doing business" with Japan, especially so if the hypothetical Japanese had taken great care to not actually hurt any of their 540,000 US "guests" ...

Canada hasn't been invaded again since 1814 even thought the US 10th Mountain Division based at Fort Drum, NY out numbers our entire Army and is located just a 2 hour drive south of Ottawa, our capital city ... far less time by helicopter ... but we do billions of $$$ worth of business with each other annually ...

 

[Help]

Posssibly but America has a LONG history of honoring her deals ... for instance North Korea has yet to be reduced to a field of atomic glass (though there is always tomorrow) ... ditto for Vietnam ... with a war with Germany still ongoing there is an arguement to be made that America would just prefer to "get back to doing business" with Japan, especially so if the hypothetical Japanese had taken great care to not actually hurt any of their 540,000 US hostages ...

Would this still be an ambush? Holding a hostage US citizens would first of all not be feasible with the military personnel. The news and the whole nation would be united against the Japanese and demonize them. The country would push for war, as otherwise the administration would suffer morale loss and a heavy blow. FDR, while against Germany, would not be at war with it and Congress would only want to focus on destroying Japan, I could see the US releasing it for a bit, but once the hostages are returned, they would go to war. If Japan keeps the hostages, that would be in all practicality conquering the land, and the US would go to war to liberate its citizens.
So, Japan would lose, though maybe later and after an even larger military build up. Germany might be helped by this.

 

[dabrob]

George Bush Sr. didn't nuke Iran after the 94 US hostages were released, with Canadian help.

If a Nation is to be taken seriously on the World stage, other nations must be able to COUNT of it's words and treaties being honored.

Especially so if the Nation wishes to lead, or at least influence the rest of the planet in the future.

Why would America risk the lives of so many of it's citizens over DEI oil resources which it never owned in the first place ?

 

[Help]

George Bush Sr. didn't nuke Iran after the 94 US hostages were released.

Iran didn't invade US soil.
Edit:
Also, it was US land for 40 years, with most people living there Americans. They would be under a brutal dictatorship, which they know did the Rape of Nanking. Releasing hostages would be ethnic cleansing.
If I read you right, instead of releasing hostages, the Japanese would leave after they got their demands. They be stretched thin holding their demands, and the US would treat Japan as a rogue state, giving exorbitant aid to China and helping the European nations.

For being treated as an equal, I think that the majoriy of nations would not be against the US considering the Rape of Nanking and the ambush and hostage of have a million citizens.

 

[dabrob]

Sure Iran did ... that Tehran Consulate was US soil under international agreement ...

"Releasing hostages would be ethnic cleansing." ??? how so ?

I'd have to devote some time to think thru the details of how the US/Japan negotiations might go ... but I wouldn't expect the Japanese to be entirely stupid about trusting the US ... I think it likely that it would take them years to return all 540,000 of the US "guests" and longer to vacate the Hawaiin (and other) Islands.