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Let's assume that Japan never occupies French Indochina and somehow manages to occupy China (an even more disunited Nationalist cause; a lack of German investment into the Republic; general incompetence by Chiang) and force an unconditional surrender.

What would Japan do with China? Would their puppet Republican government led by Wang Jiangwei be expanded, or would they choose to coopt local warlords into cooperating?

And finally, what will happen in the long run, assuming that Japan never attacks either European colonies or the USA? Simple economic development would mean that by the 1970s their puppet governments would be able to assert their independence and defeat Japan in an eventual war. But seeing as it will likely have nukes by this time, it could turn very ugly indeed..
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