Japanese victory in China impact on a Pacific war

Say Japan manages to win in China by October 1941 gaining a puppet state with these roughly these borders and blunder it's self into a war with the Western allies.

How would a pacific war go
 
Would there be a Pacific War? With the War in China over wouldn't there be a better chance of convincing the US to lift the embargo through diplomatic needs. It would certainly make the need for resources less pressing so even if they eventually invade the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and bomb Pearl Harbor it would probably happen at a later point than in our timeline.
 
You would probably see a greater interest in securing Singapore, Dutch East Indies and Philippines. Sadly, this would probably just cause the war to drag out longer. Japan still has to face the U.S. navy, and the army being free doesn't fix anything. If anything, Japan puts more troops on the islands, making the island hop campaign even slower. However, this could flip the thinking on the strategy and force the U.S. to find a different way to get to Japan. Isolating islands and starving the defenders out or getting Indian and Australian and New Zealand forces involved as well, or perhaps using even more overwhelming force to clear islands (drop a nuke on Midway).

Keep in mind, if the war goes longer, the USSR would definitely shift forces to the Far East and invade everything Japan holds in Asia.
 

nbcman

Donor
Say Japan manages to win in China by October 1941 gaining a puppet state with these roughly these borders and blunder it's self into a war with the Western allies.

How would a pacific war go
Those borders aren’t a Japanese ‘win’. It would be considered a Japanese loss to accept those limited territorial gains in North China when they are occupying far more Chinese territory than that in the Fall of 1941. By October 1941, the US has applied the Oil Embargo and the Embargo wouldn’t be lifted if Japan occupied even those limited areas of China south if Manchuria.

Having more of the IJA available in late 1941 doesn’t help since the Japanese didn’t have enough shipping to move more troops than OTL.
 
Depending on what assets the Japanese can move east instead of being used in China there will be a higher body count in the Pacific but I don’t see much of delay in the Allied advance.
The war still ends in Aug. ‘45.
 
You would probably see a greater interest in securing Singapore, Dutch East Indies and Philippines. Sadly, this would probably just cause the war to drag out longer. Japan still has to face the U.S. navy, and the army being free doesn't fix anything. If anything, Japan puts more troops on the islands, making the island hop campaign even slower. However, this could flip the thinking on the strategy and force the U.S. to find a different way to get to Japan. Isolating islands and starving the defenders out or getting Indian and Australian and New Zealand forces involved as well, or perhaps using even more overwhelming force to clear islands (drop a nuke on Midway).

Keep in mind, if the war goes longer, the USSR would definitely shift forces to the Far East and invade everything Japan holds in Asia.

Drop a nuke on Nagumo and then one on Yamamoto. No IJN, Japan loses everything PDQ. (That is a joke.) Realistically, even in ATL:

Russia will be even more cautious than in OTL, so forget invade China. The only reason Stalin tried in *45 was because he had a huge army combat trained by the Germans (sarcasm) lavishly supplied by his allies (more sarcasm) who, themselves, had torn the guts out of the Japanese Imperial Army in extensive campaigns in the SW Pacific and SE Asia.

The IJA was dead meat walking. Stalin had a very temporary advantage and window he could exploit that would evaporate by January 46, when all his postwar chickens come home to roost. Getting 1 in 9 of your citizens killed in A THOROUGHLY BOTCHED WAR is kind of the thing that might lead to your physicians and bodyguards looking for a way to do you in. True they kind of took their sweet time it is alleged, but... imagine if Stalin, with an existential threat still in the Rodina had announced he was going to renew the Russo-Japanese War in late 1943 or early 1944?

At that extremis, the Верховный Исполнительный комитет Коммунистической партии (Krushschev) would have to do something. Assassination or accident, but one front Nikita would act. I mean look at what happened to Beria?
 
Any conceivable "Win" in China is still going to need every man the Japanese Army posseses to keep the win from turning into a nasty mess. Even if their were more Army available unless they all learn to swim whilst wearing full kit they are going to be of no use.
 
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