Japanese Taiwan Post-WW2

Until 1943, the Allies did not have any intention of removing Taiwan from Japan's Empire. Towards the end of the war, Taiwan's status was upped from colony to a full part of Japan that was divided into prefectures.

What if Japan were allowed to keep Taiwan following WW2? Perhaps there's a referendum in which the islanders are given the option of joining China, becoming independent, or remaining Japanese and the islanders opt to remain with Japan.

Alternatively, the KMT could be so thoroughly destroyed that they are unable to retreat to Taiwan. The allies proceed to just return Taiwan to Japan.

What would be the ramifications of a Japan that's ~20% larger in population and more ethnically diverse?
 
Assuming the PRC still claims Formosa, this means domestic support and legal justification for Japanese naval expansion in the early-21st Century is greater than IOTL. It would also be a boon for US power projection, with the US taking advantage of their alliance with Japan to expand their missile shield across the East China Sea, from Japan in the north, through the Senkakus, and to Formosa in the south. There'll be missile destroyers and submarines at Kirun, and at least one major airbase on the island.

EDIT: It'll also be a major source of tension, as the USN and the JMSDF will probably hold regular exercises in the East China Sea. Chinese flights over the Senkakus might also run into American F-16s or even F-22s operating from Formosa.
 
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Assuming that the Taiwanese had full citizenship, this would definitely help Japan dealing with its aging crisis. A Japan with a more open immigration policy would have a larger group of workers supporting their retirees.
 
The only way for Japan to keep Taiwan is to avoid the Pacific War.

Even George Kerr, the man in the State Department most critical of the return of the island to China wrote in *Formosa Betrayed* that during World War II (and he is referring to the time *before* the Cairo Conference) "Three alternatives were evident. In theory the island might be made independent and given self-government, but in practice this would be difficult to bring about, even if the Formosans wanted it and the Allies agreed. (Surely China would object.) A second course would ensure the prompt transfer of Formosa to China, to satisfy loud Chinese claims that it was a "lost province." A third program would provide for a temporary Allied trusteeship, during which the Formosans themselves would prepare for a plebiscite to determine their ultimate political fate." http://homepage.usask.ca/~llr130/taiwanlibrary/kerr/chap01.htm

Note that Kerr does not even list letting Japan keep the island as an option. True, the third option listed involves an eventual plebescite, and *theoretically* a plebescite could go in favor of Japan. But in practice it almost certainly wouldn't--it was only *after* years of Nationalist misrule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_28_Incident that nostalgia for Japanese rule as "the good old days" could gain any strength on the island.

And in any event, the third option was unlikely to be adopted, given that promising China Taiwan was an easy way of satisfying the Chinese (compared to making China more of a military priority) in wartime diplomacy. Indeed, Japan was lucky to eventually keep the Ryukyus, even though its claim for them (both in terms of history and ethnic affinity) was much stronger than for Taiwan.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ryukyu-liu-chiu-islands-republic-of-china.392606/
 
Not a snowball's chance in hell.

China wants Taiwan, and the Allies aren't going to give a dead horse's fart about the feelings of the Taiwanese, who could charitably described as passively supporting the Axis war effort, much less of the Japanese.
 
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