Japanese-Soviet War in 1941

Now obviously this idea requires some hand waves, since Japan has no reason to "Go North" in 1941, or any other year. However, I think it's an interesting scenario, with many repercussions.

So, Japan enters negotiations with Nazi officials in summer 1941 to invade the Soviet Union, and reach an agreement in late July. Due to the time it'll take to build up supplies and concentrate forces, the Japanese intend to commence offensive operations in late September.

The Kwantung Army in 1941 numbered some 700,000 men. The Soviet Far Eastern Front deployed close to a million men throughout the war, at minimum 600,000. It also contained a large portion of the Red Army's pre-war artillery, armor, aircraft, and transport. Due to distances few forces were transferred directly from the Far Eastern Front to the west, and it retained large supply depots. Essentially it was equipped to operate as an independent force. The Kwantung army by contrast had by 1941 been stripped if many of it's trained men, officers, equipment, supplies, and transportation. It was not prepared for intensive combat operations.

So, given from July to September to turn the Kwantung Army into a usable fighting force, what results could it achieve?
 
If the earlier clashes at Khalkin Gol had continued and Soviet troops had advanced into Manchuria, the Japanese might have tried to reclaim it in 1941. However, I don't believe such a strike would have been successful, and these events might have faciltated earlier CCP gains in Manchuria and northern China.
 
The only plausible way for this to happen is that the Soviets start massing troops in the Far East and preparing to attack the Japanese. Perhaps as a result of bigger Japanese success in China, which could persuade the Soviets that they might be next on the menu. Or someone feeding Stalin some more paranoia on the Japanese so he decides to preempt them. The Soviets preparing to attack would be the only thing that would make the Japanese choose the Northern Resource Area over the Southern.
 
The usual consensus in threads like these is that the Soviet Far Eastern forces will roflstomp any Japanese troops foolhardy enough to try conclusions with a force that is larger, better equipped and supplied, and possesses superior tactics and doctrine for the conflict.

The question about what changes the Japanese could plausibly have made before a hypothetical invasion is a good one, and I don't know the answer. However July to September is only three months - that's not a very long time to make substantive changes, especially if the new units have to coordinate their operations (and they'd better, because if they don't the Soviets will probably make mincemeat of them). With such a narrow window in which to reinforce and restructure the Kwantung army, is such a project even possible?
 
Gunnarnz said:
Soviet Far Eastern forces will roflstomp any Japanese troops foolhardy enough
Pretty much. IJA didn't have armor, AT, or doctrine to cope with even the Red Army of 1939. If it gets even a few lessons from Barabarossa, steamrolling all the way to Dairen isn't impossible. (It isn't a big stretch anyhow.:rolleyes:)
Gunnarnz said:
The question about what changes the Japanese could plausibly have made before a hypothetical invasion is a good one
You really need to go back into the 1920s & get a change in senior command, so IJA emphasizes armor over morale. (This also seems to require an improvement in Japan's industrial capacity...)

How you get the U.S. or Dutch to sell more oil IDK, so long as Japan is at war with China...:confused: Which does bugger the whole idea.:rolleyes:
 
By 1941 Imperial Japan is already heavily committed to fighting in China which drastically lowers the available personal and equipment for fighting in Manchuria. Thus in the OP 700,000 men being available for the Japanese is not truly accurate.

Because the Japanese are heavily committed to China that does not give Imperial Japan the ability to fight on all three fronts, China, Manchuria and the Pacific.

If the firebrand officers of the Kwantung theatre escalated another conflict with russia, then there simply won't be the equipment and supplies to occupy the pacific.

It has to be the officers in Manchuria acting unilaterally in this context, because the Chiefs of staff in mainland Japan were completely paranoid that the army may lead it into disaster in Manchuria by fighting the Russians and so would have done everything in their power to try and prevent such a conflict.

Japanese-German co-operation will never be enough to convince the Japanese after the border skirmishs of 1939.


Even then the officers in Manchuria, while their 'lack of progress' as they saw it in 1939 was a bitter sting to them, they weren't stupid about wanting to escalate another conflict so soon, so here again it's rather difficult to get this kind of scenario, without making some much earlier changes.


The Closest POD:
Victory for the Japanese at Nomonhan (Khalin Gol) escalates into full war.


This is the scenario that neither the Japanese navy, or chiefs of staff in Japan wanted and signals the emergency alarm bells much earlier for the Japanese high command to reign in the army.

The border forces in North Manchuria on the Japanese side may be fairly quick to escalate the conflict along a very broad front, but lacking manpower will quickly find their incursions halted. This will likely cause troops to be re-deployed from China, while soviet and Japanese forces clash in several larger scale conflicts in east Manchuria or around Vladivostok.

While the Japanese may win the air and naval battles and be able to shell the city and/or deploy to north Sakhalin. It is unlikely the Japanese will gain any significant ground in this scenario, and may quickly find themselves on the defensive.


At this point, both China and Manchuria become massive meat grinders.

China will likely not accept a form of 'white peace' by this point. On the otherhand, Japan could pull back to the Qingdong and Shanghai peninsular and concentrate on holding more specific regions, rather than trying to occupy all of China in a strategic retreat.

6 months or a year down the line this strategy will have to be adopted due to lack of supplies to maintain deeper logistics into China.

Kai-shek will try and take advantage of this, but so will Mao, and it may end up being a 3 belligerents war as the Chinese Civil War starts anew in the power vacuum created by the Japanese withdrawal.

The Chinese theater has to be de-prioritised because Manchuria will become the hardest fought battlefield. The Russians in this era may have the better equipment, espically in armour, but they might not have the battle experience or overwhelming support to be able what was achieved in OTL 1945.

The Japanese on the otherhand have already developed the equipment and doctrine for this terrain, and forced onto the defensive will likely take a similar attitude to the Pacific Campaign, trading blood and land for time and resolve.

The Japanese would in this scenario loose most if not all of North Manchuria, but would likely halt the Russians in the south where their supply lines are short, and the Soviets long. A bitter stalemate may ensue at this point.


After this we cannot really say, it depends onf politics. If the Japanese never fought the Allies (excluding Soviet Russia), then the Allies may be far more concerned with the Russians gaining all of the far east as their sphere of influence, hence with British and American pressure Imperial Japan may be forced out of the war, when pressure is put on Stalin and Kai-Shek to sign a peace.

While Stalin might, I doubt more strongly that Kai-Shek would,, even with Mao still around, because he will feel 'betrayed'' by the allies for letting Japan 'get away with war'.


Alternatively, Stalin says no to the Allies and continues to fight the Japanese. If this happens then Churchill and Roosevelt may find their attitude to Stalin harden considerably leading to the Allies (in the wider sense) beginning to fragment.

The wider issue now becomes do the allies impose sanction to prevent Soviet domination of the east? Say by cancelling lend lease and other support?

In which case the war in the west drags on for longer and is more bloody and could even lead to an early WWIII.


Would Imperial Japan 'peace out'?

Well it has little choice if it has been forced from north Manchuria and is on the full defensive. The Kwantung officers have lost all respect from the Chiefs of Staff and would likely be removed...possibly forcibly...from their positions. This brings the army back under the Cabinets control for the most part.

This coupled with the fact that Japanese supplies will be running dangerous low by this point means that the Chiefs of Staff will know that before long Japan simply will not be able to prosecute the war at the level it has been fought at. If they continue to fight, then their position will only get weaker.

With more moderates in command, and the scenario dawning on them that they don't have the economic capital to continue to defy the Soviets it is more likely that they will end up cutting their losses.


What about Imperial Japan if it 'peaced out'?

The regime would have lost all face and suffered from an internal power struggle. There would be elements wanting to continue the war, others fed up with the war, and even some of the public who would risk speaking out. Its difficult to say (other than a limited form of civil war at the top) what may happen in the wake of such actions.


What if it doesn't?

By early 1942 ('39 timeline) the Soviets will be almost at the Korean border, yet the Japanese will have been exacting a massive toll on the Soviet troops. The North China Japanese troops will have already likely pulled out from around Beijing and either be in Korea or Qingdong by now, with the Soviets and Mao sharing proper supply lines, Stalin is likely to give Mao support to overthrow Kai-shek. If the Chinese Civil war wasn't renewed before, it will be now.

The Japanese will be loosing Air power in Korea/South Manchuria due to oil and resource shortages, while greater fighting will have meant that mainland Japan will be soon facing a food crisis before OTL. Meanwhile the Allies will becoming increasingly concerned as to the Soviet push into east-asia. Japan may have little choice but to accept American supplies and weapons to stall the Soviets as they enter Korea in mid 1944.

The world becomes increasingly polarised.

Long term Korea likely becomes sercured, along with those areas of China held, since we are entering an ideological era between 'red and blue' now where greater communist success, breeds greater communist paranoia.


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For Imperial Japan to even have a hint of being successful in Manchuria, they need to make that their primary focus for the WWII era.
 
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I think if Soviet waged 2 front war Soviet will have very difficult time.
Soviet had very big problem of supply than IJA. Kwantung had Manchuria to make supply, while Soviets relied on European Russia. At the moment East of Ural had no industry.
Longer the fight get the bigger supply problem will face.

For Japanese to fight with Soviet they sure needed to stop Chinese and Pacific War.
Best Strategy for Japanese is occupation of Inner and Outer Mongolia, then disrupt on Trans-Siberian Railway connection near Baikal and build defense there. Then beat Soviet Far Eastern Army.

I'm doubt about Soviet Blitzkrieg in 1941.
 
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