Do YOU believe British decision-making regarding deployment and usage of their three carriers in the Indian Ocean (after the KB's raid there is over) will change ITTL? Will King's request for at least one of them for Australia still be denied?
Japan's attack against Midway was all about luring in the remaining American air fleet. Not seizing the island. Though the IJA certainly wanted it as a forward base to prevent future Tokyo raids. Assuming Lexington and Enterprise are gone, that's only one deck less for Midway than OTL. Plus with all those air crews likely saved from a never done Battle of the Coral Sea (THAT is a battle the USN won't have the luxury to fight), and that the torpedoing of the Saratoga is likely to be butterflied, you'll still see 3 USN flattops at Midway (Hornet, Yorktown, Saratoga). Four, if as I suspect the Wasp goes directly to the Pacific and never goes to the Med.
By the time of Japan's attack on Midway, for the level of force in terms of aircraft, troops, and especially the bombardment force (1), Japan was never going to take Midway. For its size, Midway was very heavily defended. Then there's the shoals that were at least as bad as the atolls in the Marshalls.
1) A Special Naval Landing Force of approx. 2000 men, a carrier fleet limited to ten days of action before fuel shortages would force them to turn back, and only a force of four heavy cruisers to serve as a bombardment force. For all the talk of the mighty 18.1" guns of the Yamato, in fact except for those four cruisers every other major warship in the fleet sent to Midway were topped off (mostly) with AP rounds. For Midway, you'd need HE and GP.