Somewhat counter-intuitively, the best chance for this happening is if Japan doesn't get engaged in a total war. If she is, then it makes sense to favor tried-and-true weapons that you can mass produce easily to equip the army. If Japan is at peace, or is only engaged in small-scale battles, then she is free to try something new. Still, given the constraints of Japanese industry at the time, it's hard to see them equipping the entire army with this new weapon. Maybe it could be seen as a way to give small units more firepower, with one man per squad being issued the weapon? Alternatively, it could be a weapon for special units. For example, the SNLF saw that their bolt-action rifles were insufficient for the house-to-house fighting in Shanghai in 1932. Maybe they decide that semi-auto rifles are the solution, and they are adopted for these units, but not the regular army? Or they could be issued to army paratrooper units, to help compensate for their lack of machine guns and artillery.
Now, as to which design is best, I think Kawamura's design, based on the Pedersen toggle-locking action, is at least workable. From what little I know, it sounds like the Japanese had trouble with it not delaying enough, and opening under excessively high pressure. In Pederson's rifle, as presented to other nations, he solved this by coating the cartridges in a kind of hard wax, to aid in extracting. This information was not shared with Japan, as he didn't make a sale. If the Japanese figure it out on their own, or if he does mention it, then you have the basis for a workable rifle. It's not an ideal solution, as waxed cartridges can attract dust, dirt, or grime, but it is at least a working semi-auto rifle.