Japanese Sakhalin

ronaldo

ronaldo

Japanese Sakhalin

How can Japan have Sakhalin?
The people of Sakhalin are ethically Japanese and Japanese-speaking

Is it possible for Japan to get all of Sakhalin after the Russo Japanese War?
 
Tsargrad_or_Bust

Tsargrad_or_Bust

CaliGuy said:
Probably not; after all, Russian Tsar Nicholas II only reluctantly agreed to the cession/loss of southern Sakhalin as it is.
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At one point during the treaty of Portsmouth negotiations Witte offered all of Sakhalin in exchange for not having to pay reparations, iirc. The island wasn't nearly as valuable then, so there is theoretically a window for Japan to get the whole thing. They'd then have to hold on to it, of course.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Tsargrad_or_Bust said:
At one point during the treaty of Portsmouth negotiations Witte offered all of Sakhalin in exchange for not having to pay reparations, iirc. The island wasn't nearly as valuable then, so there is theoretically a window for Japan to get the whole thing. They'd then have to hold on to it, of course.
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Do you have a link for your claim, please? I'd like to personally see this information.
 
Tsargrad_or_Bust

Tsargrad_or_Bust

CaliGuy said:
Do you have a link for your claim, please? I'd like to personally see this information.
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It was in some book I read a few years ago (a couple of lines that, from memory, stated that the Tsar told Witte he'd tolerate ceding north Sakhalin but not any reparations). There's also something to that effect on the wiki article on the treaty of Portsmouth. I found this article while looking for something more substantive. Again, there seems to be a narrow window here for the Japanese; Russian reinforcements to the far east and Witte's negotiating skills meant that they only came away with half the island (and no money) IOTL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Tsargrad_or_Bust said:
It was in some book I read a few years ago (a couple of lines that, from memory, stated that the Tsar told Witte he'd tolerate ceding north Sakhalin but not any reparations). There's also something to that effect on the wiki article on the treaty of Portsmouth. I found this article while looking for something more substantive. Again, there seems to be a narrow window here for the Japanese; Russian reinforcements to the far east and Witte's negotiating skills meant that they only came away with half the island (and no money) IOTL.
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Thanks for this information; indeed, here is the relevant part from that link:

https://www.nhbar.org/publications/archives/display-journal-issue.asp?id=295

"When the First Plenipotentiaries convened in the conference room in the general stores building the next day (August 23), Witte reacted to Komura’s proposal, that Russia cede to Japan the northern half of Sakhalin Island for a monetary payment to be negotiated later, by asking if the offer implied Japan’s willingness to dispense with an indemnity if Russia ceded the entire island."

Anyway, the big question appears to be whether Russian Tsar Nicholas II would have actually agreed to the loss of all of Sakhalin. If not, Witte would have had to defy him in order to actually go through with this (assuming that the Japanese would have given up their demand for an indemnity, that is).
 
Tsargrad_or_Bust

Tsargrad_or_Bust

CaliGuy said:
Thanks for this information; indeed, here is the relevant part from that link:

https://www.nhbar.org/publications/archives/display-journal-issue.asp?id=295

"When the First Plenipotentiaries convened in the conference room in the general stores building the next day (August 23), Witte reacted to Komura’s proposal, that Russia cede to Japan the northern half of Sakhalin Island for a monetary payment to be negotiated later, by asking if the offer implied Japan’s willingness to dispense with an indemnity if Russia ceded the entire island."

Anyway, the big question appears to be whether Russian Tsar Nicholas II would have actually agreed to the loss of all of Sakhalin. If not, Witte would have had to defy him in order to actually go through with this (assuming that the Japanese would have given up their demand for an indemnity, that is).
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To hear the article tell it, Witte did defy him. Supposedly the Tsar did acquiesce to ceding the whole island (though in true Nicholas II form he shortly afterwords also wanted to break off negotiations entirely) but Witte held out and the Japanese, being in an increasingly precarious position, soon only asked for the south. From the article:
A message from Secretary Peirce informed him that the Plenipotentiaries had set a date for final discussions—the 28th. Witte had been informed that the Czar acquiesced to surrendering all claims to the northern half of Sakhalin, but no payment of any kind would be made. However, the Czar was convinced further negotiations would be unproductive, and for the second time ordered Witte to end the negotiations. Responding both to his instincts and a plea from Roosevelt via Secretary Peirce to await a definitive response from the Japanese, Witte again ignored his sovereign’s instructions.
At a tense meeting of the First Plenipotentiaries on Tuesday the 29th, Komura, ever the consummate diplomat, advised his counterpart that Japan would drop all consideration of an indemnity if Russia would cede all of Sakhalin to Japan. Witte blandly declined the proposal. Komura reluctantly counter-proposed the offer his government had directed him to make. If Japan gave up its demand for some form of payment, was the Russian offer to cede half of Sakhalin still valid? A triumphant Witte immediately agreed. Agreement had been reached!
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CaliGuy

Banned
Tsargrad_or_Bust said:
To hear the article tell it, Witte did defy him. Supposedly the Tsar did acquiesce to ceding the whole island (though in true Nicholas II form he shortly afterwords also wanted to break off negotiations entirely) but Witte held out and the Japanese, being in an increasingly precarious position, soon only asked for the south. From the article:
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Actually, it states that Nicky only agreed to give up half of Sakhalin. However, it is possible that Witte might have forced Nicky's hand by giving up all of Sakhalin without his permission and only then getting Nicky to agree to this.
 
Tsargrad_or_Bust

Tsargrad_or_Bust

CaliGuy said:
Actually, it states that Nicky only agreed to give up half of Sakhalin. However, it is possible that Witte might have forced Nicky's hand by giving up all of Sakhalin without his permission and only then getting Nicky to agree to this.
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Well Nicholas agreeing to give up north Sakhalin implies giving up the entire island. For reference at one point in the negotiations the Japanese offered to essentially sell the north half back to Russia, but this was viewed as a thinly disguised indemnity. Avoiding said reparations was Russia's top priority during negotiations, so from what I can tell the Tsar was willing to cede control of the island to Japan rather than pay anything, but Witte took the initiative and got better terms. Based on events during negotiations it would appear that Witte was the greater obstacle to a Japanese Sakhalin.
 

David T

*If* the Tsar was convinced that he *had* to either agree to pay to get northern Sakhalin back or accept its loss, there is a case that he would have done the latter. As Alex Milman noted in a soc.history.what-if thread I had started on the diplomatic endgame of the Russo-Japanese War, "Don't forget the issue of prestige. Loosing a piece of a territory on the far end of the Russian Empire was reasonably bad (Witte was blamed by some 'patriots' for this concession) but paying indemnity would be shameful and much more damaging to the regime." https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/2O_GmdpF7ec/5eLkpKXY5goJ
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Tsargrad_or_Bust said:
Well Nicholas agreeing to give up north Sakhalin implies giving up the entire island. For reference at one point in the negotiations the Japanese offered to essentially sell the north half back to Russia, but this was viewed as a thinly disguised indemnity. Avoiding said reparations was Russia's top priority during negotiations, so from what I can tell the Tsar was willing to cede control of the island to Japan rather than pay anything, but Witte took the initiative and got better terms. Based on events during negotiations it would appear that Witte was the greater obstacle to a Japanese Sakhalin.
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Anyway, it looks like I initially misunderstood you here; indeed, you might have a point here. However, couldn't the "northern Sakhalin" part in your source above be an error and actually mean "southern Sakhalin"?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
David T said:
*If* the Tsar was convinced that he *had* to either agree to pay to get northern Sakhalin back or accept its loss, there is a case that he would have done the latter. As Alex Milman noted in a soc.history.what-if thread I had started on the diplomatic endgame of the Russo-Japanese War, "Don't forget the issue of prestige. Loosing a piece of a territory on the far end of the Russian Empire was reasonably bad (Witte was blamed by some 'patriots' for this concession) but paying indemnity would be shameful and much more damaging to the regime." https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/2O_GmdpF7ec/5eLkpKXY5goJ
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Agreed with this; however, wouldn't this have required Japan to bluff and to pretend that it is capable of continuing the war if necessary?
 

thaddeus

why did Japan leave the northern part of Sakhalin in 1925? domestic problems after their foray in Siberia? (and of course they didn't know some of resources existed there)
 
Remitonov

Remitonov

Obtaining and holding on to Sakhalin up to WW2 is doable enough. Beyond that, you'd need the Americans to get in there first at the end of WW2 to preempt the Soviet annexation, which is a pretty tall order.
 
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