Japanese population level after Op. Downfall

Joriz Castillo

A lot of discussions have been about how much US casualties would've been in Downfall went ahead (Olympic & Coronet). Not much has been said about how much Japanese casualties would there have been in both operations.

So I ask this: How many Japanese would've died if Downfall went ahead? This includes Military and Civilian numbers.
 
History Learner

History Learner

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Joriz Castillo said:
A lot of discussions have been about how much US casualties would've been in Downfall went ahead (Olympic & Coronet). Not much has been said about how much Japanese casualties would there have been in both operations.

So I ask this: How many Japanese would've died if Downfall went ahead? This includes Military and Civilian numbers.
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Spot famines were expected to kill 7-10 Million up to 1947, at which point they would largely stop having as much of an effect as the cities would be emptied and the overall "surplus" stomachs culled. Bombing, war fighting and the like can be expected to kill another 10 million or so, possibly less, maybe more; depends on how things go. Overall I'd say 20 million is about the right number if both operations get carried out and the war lasts into 1947. Obviously if OLYMPIC fails and CORONET is unable to go ahead, that changes things quite a bit.
 
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