Japanese Navy without Pacific War

I'd take the Mustang with almost double the MG ammo that is 50% higher caliber over the Zero. Plus the Mustang was far more maneuverable than the Zero at the higher elevations where the strategic bombers flew.

Yes, maybe, but you can get your Zero right now, while for Mustang you have to wait at least a year or even more. Also, I tfink that 20 mm is stronger than 12,7.
 
IMO they will pull back behind the "Great Wall" from northern China while conducting a fighting retreat from Manchuria. While this is going on, the Korean Border is being fortified. That was the OTL plan IIRC (Coox, "Nomonhon' I think) and that, in an absolute best case scenario for the Soviets, is where the lines of the war will end.

One other point. The IJN conducting a bombardment of Vladivostok would be ill advised. Imperial Russia fortified it well, the Soviets continued and improved it. That would be a good scenario to game out, I don't think the losses the IJN will suffer will be worth the effort.

So, you think that the Japanese will keep the southern part of Manchuria ( let's say area from Korean border to Changchun and from Changchun to SW, with Beijing and other previously Japanese held area north of Hoang He also in Japanese hands ) and whole Korea? And that they can defend that area from further Soviet attacks for at least a year?

About Vladivostok- do you know the details of defence?
 
Ill dig out Coox and go over the maps tonight, and find the website (if its still there) of Vladivostok's defense's.
 
I understand now. Wouldn't that made them a bit top heavy ( and they were allready pretty top heawyy )?

As dangerous as those torpedoes were to the crew, they should have had a Talos like storage and launching setup, with the Torpedoes not on the launchers till just before use
 
Ripper I am traveling for Xmas starting tomorrow morning. I believe the info we are looking for is in Coox, but I'll not have time to really go through it until I return. Something to look at in this scenario, well, a couple actually. Firstly, the axis of advance for the Soviets HAS to be along railways. Roads at this time are simply awful to non-existent in Manchuria, the majority of travel and shipment of goods being done via railways, so expect major battles to be along the railways.
Secondly, the best of the websites I could find this afternoon was this one: http://vladfortress.h1n.ru/?page_id=245 The one I used a decade or so ago for research is no longer in existence.
 
Ripper I am traveling for Xmas starting tomorrow morning. I believe the info we are looking for is in Coox, but I'll not have time to really go through it until I return. Something to look at in this scenario, well, a couple actually. Firstly, the axis of advance for the Soviets HAS to be along railways. Roads at this time are simply awful to non-existent in Manchuria, the majority of travel and shipment of goods being done via railways, so expect major battles to be along the railways.
Secondly, the best of the websites I could find this afternoon was this one: http://vladfortress.h1n.ru/?page_id=245 The one I used a decade or so ago for research is no longer in existence.


I agree that the advance of the Red Army must follow the rail lines. With significant exception of Soviet-Mongolian cavalry thrust from E. Mongolia towards SW Manchuria...
OK, it seems that naval bombardment of Vladivostok was not a good option, but Pearl Harbour-style operation is still possible. Maybe even mining operation in front of Vladivostok.
 
My plans went awry. I leave Sat, with (God willing) the last details to be finished tomorrow. I dug out Alvin D. Coox's "Nomonhan: Japan Against Russia,1939, and got some of the details needed.
With the start of the incident, and its growing escalation, will this butterfly the Finnish War? How will the Purges be affected? That's for you as the author to decide. In OTL in 1945, the a large part of the Soviet Advance into Manchuria came out of Mongolia. As you said, this will (in 1939/1940) be with cavalry units. At this time, the IJA isn't too deeply mired in China. They have the troops to make a good fight with the Soviets. Their problem is that they are very, very weak in armored forces, and not nearly as well equipped as the Soviets in artillery and anti-tank weaponry. The Japanese have learned this, after the Red Army curb stomped them quite handily. This is a quote from the book. "Two years after the experience at Nomonhan, IJA ground divisions were still markedly inferior to Red Army divisions with respect to firepower, mobility, armor, and air support." (Coox, p1052) This means the IJA troops badly need difficult terrain to make their stands. IMO the Soviets will push them further and further back towards Harbin, which they will make a great effort to save. Much will depend on how much time and effort Stalin wants to put into this at this time. Whatever his shortcomings, he was no fool, and won't be entirely comfortable with keeping too many troops in Manchuria when the Germans have taken half of Poland. On the other hand, he may decide to clear up the situation in the East by beating the hell out of the Japanese so he can concentrate on the looming German threat.
If Stalin goes all in, he will push the IJA out of Harbin and back southward. I can see a lot of the IJA troops from south of the Great Wall and Peking being transferred, and possibly, if the situation grows dire enough, the Japanese opening negotiations with Chiang Kai Shek and the Japanese pulling out of Northern China entirely. Japanese industry is not going to be able to meet the demands of the Army in time. This will force the Japanese further and further back into the mountains, where their limited weaponry is not at such a disadvantage, and nullifying the Soviet advantage in armor. This was, in fact, the plan for 1945. The "Redoubt" was to run from Ant'u in the north, to Tonghua in the center, and finally Liaoyang in the south, using the terrain of the Changbai Mountains. (Page 1064). I'd expect successive lines of defense going back to and behind the Yalu River.
This is a good scenario for a TL. It opens several possibilities. Will Germany defend against France and England, and attack Russia early, while they are heavily engaged in Manchuria? How far will Stalin order the Red Army to go? Will Chiang Kai Shek make peace, so he can destroy the Communists? Kudos to you for bringing this one up!

As to the IJN, an enlarged war in Manchuria will butterfly away further Japanese advances into China. No embargoes, no "Southern Strategy", no Great Pacific War. The IJN may try, if they can get sufficient troops from the Army, to take Kamchatka, but that's just off the top of my head, so don't put too much credence to it. All in all, the IJN will continue to be a modern navy, but probably smaller and less relevant. The Army will be needing better equipment, and with no likely maritime enemy, the Army will grow, while the IJN wont.
 
With the start of the incident, and its growing escalation, will this butterfly the Finnish War?

Unlikely, given that the Finnish War started in 1808.:p

As for the Winter War, is Molotov-Ribbentrop averted due to the POD? If not, then the Soviets would have the same motives to try to take over Finland and the Baltics as IOTL in 1939-40. Personally, I'd say that a war with Japan would delay the events that led to the Winter War, but the war might just happen later due to the very same reasons it happened IOTL: Stalin pushing Finland for territorial concessions, not getting any, and in the end resorting to an invasion to easily take over the little bourgeois republic with a puny, ill-equipped military. Remember here that Stalin IOTL thought that Finland could be taken over with minimal effort - the initial invasion included comparatively a lot of troops, but then they were not really expected to fight the Finns, just to scare them to submission and then work to accomplish the early stages of a Soviet occupation of Finland. So ITTL he might try the same with even less troops, should it appear there is less manpower available to use.

Of course then various butterflies would kick in, in terms of what happens next, and on balance we might expect some of the same and something different: initial setbacks for the Red Army due to overconfidence, then a more competent grind to wear out the Finnish defence. In absense of foreign intervention, or a seemingly realistic threat of such (like IOTL), Finland will fall in two to four months, depending on different details, luck and happenstance.
 
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