Japanese Navy without Pacific War

OK, this is discussion thread for a posible future TL about Imperial Japanese Navy and Japan.
I'm interested how would IJN ( and Japan in general ) develop had Pacific War didn't happen.
Now this is the historical/strategic context:

- 1939. in August battle of Khalkin Gol/Nomokhan escalates. Let's just say that rogie IJA commander attacks Soviet forces in another sector of Manchuria. Stalin decides that, with western border secure after deal with Hitler ( Ribbentropp-Molotov ) he can give decisive blow to the Japanese.

- so in late August/early September, Soviet Army starts big operation in Manchuria against Japan

- at first, Soviet offensive had great sucess and they managed to take about half of Manchuria in about a month or two, but later, Japanese resistance was stronger, especially during battles in/around great cities like Harbin, so after crossing Hingan Mountains Japanese managed to stop Soviet advance. Soviet logistics also had problems to support further advance and the winter was coming.

- meanwhile, Japanese started to pull reinforcements from Mainland Japan and from China, especially from southern parts. Commanders there were ordered to consolidate their lines and take defensive position, until Soviet attack is repulsed.

- Soviet Forces in Sakhalin island started their attack on Japanese half, but because the majority of forces was in manchuria and stubborn Japanese garrison resistance, have not managed to gain some big results.
Imperial Japanese Navy decided to use it's marines ( SNLF ) and to take Sakhalin. So they managed to make a landing behind Soviet lines and after having severed Soviet logistics by Japanese Fleet, they managed to defeat Soviet forces there and conquer the island.

- fall of Sakhalin infuriated Stalin, who sent big reinforcements to the Far East theater. In their Winter Offensive, Soviet forces attacked north of Korea from Vladivostok and from Mongolia towards western Manchuria and Peking.

- Japanese Navy meanwhile attacked Soviet Fleet in Vladivostok and Komsomolsk-on-Amur and destroyed the most of the ships there ( mostly torpedo boats and a few destroyers, lots of coastal submarines ) by using their aircraft carriers and battleships for shore bombardment.

- because of lack of soldiers, Japanese decide to shorten their lines in China, so they withdraw from Wuhan- Hankow area and from Suiyuan province

- Chiank Kai Shek, president of Republic of China decides that it's time for general offensive by Chinese forces, in all fronts, so he orders start of the offensive in the spring

- meanwhile, Soviets have managed to take Harbin, Japanese forces are withdrawing into the south and are still giving strong resistance. Soviet attack in korea didn't had big results because of mountainous area there that hinders Soviet progress and strong Japanese resistance, but has forced the Japanese to divert their reserves there.

- Imperial Japanese Navy decided to attack Petropavlovsk Kamchatskiy and Sovetskaya Gavan- in an effort to be useful in this, mostly land conflict. The attacks were mainly in form of shore bombardement by IJN battleships and cruisers. IJN also decides to send their carrier fighters and dive bombers into Port Arthur to serve as support to Army units there.

- Soviet Forces managed to make two break troughs in early March, one pincer movement from east towards Changchun and Mukden, second from Mongolia towards Jinzhou.
That forced Japanese to gather additional reinforcements from China and that allowed Chinese Spring Offensive to suceed to reach Nanjing and Yellow river. Japanese still have Shangai. In north, Chinese forces, now armed with significant Soviet delivered weaponry, were able to press towards east and pust Japanese forces towards Shandong peninsula. Japanese still hold Peking and Tientsin and shallow line towards Shandong on one side and Manchuria on another side.

- because stubborn Japanese commander in Jilin and Changchung refused to withdraw, Soviet forces managed to surround them. After strong Japanese resistance, by late April, Soviets managed to take these cities. Meanwhile, Soviet forces continued their push to the south. Chinese have managed to break into a Yellow Sea and severe Japanese forces in Shandong Peninsula from their forces in Peking- Tiencsin area. Soviet forces, on the other hand, have managed to surround Peking-Tientsin area from the north.

- Japanese now hold southern Manchuria ( more-less area from Port Arthur to Shenyang ). Soviets have managed to cross Yalu river and attack Japanese forces in Korea from the west, so Japanese are now forced to withdraw northeastern parts of Korea, to prevent encirclement.

- Chinese forces now have are trying to conquer Shangai and Shandong Peninsula, while with assistance from the Soviets, they have managed to take Peking and Tientsin ( Soviet forces entered into these cities first ).

- meanwhile in Europe, German forces started their Ardennes offensive and managed to defeat the bulk of French and British Forces in France.

- Quick crash of French defences worries Stalin now ( because if France falls and Britain makes peace with him, Hitler could turn against him now ) so he orders his generals strong final push to eliminate the Japanese from Manchuria and Korea.

- meanwhile, in Japan, more sane politicians ( especially voices from the Navy ) are proposing start of peace negotiations with Soviets, to svae at least something out of their Asian holdings. Army leadership is against and accuses navy for cowardice and lack of support. That cools down their relations a lot.

- in late May, Soviet forces started their large offensive with goal of encircling Shenyang and taking of Port Arthur. In face of stubborn Japanese resistance, Soviets managed to encircle Shenyang ( Japanese garrieon there would fight to the death ) and push south towards Liaodong Peninsula.

- IJN sends it's battleships and cruisers there to give artillery support to Army forces, but that didn't went too well after Soviet bombarders attacked the ships. Considering that IJN carrier fighters are sent long time ago to assist the Army and had great casualties. A lot of ships is damaged by Soviet bombs, but there was no sinkings or crippling damage. IJN also provides artillery suppert to Japanese forces in Shandong peninsula against the Chinese. Considering that Chinese had no air force to speak of, here were no losses.

- meanwhile, Chinese communists started their Second Long March, from Shaanxi towards Peking and Manchuria wich were held by Soviet forces. hat caused their conflict with KMT- forces, because Chiang was aware that they are trying to take over the Manchuria.

- Soviet forces continued their advancement in Liaodong any by late June had Port Arthur peninsula in sight. Similarly, they continued their push in northern part of Korea, by taking area up to Pyongyang- Wonsan line.

- by now, the majority of Japanese civillian politicians and Navy was for negotiations with Soviets- but Army would't hear nothing of that. They demanded that Nays sends their battleships and cruisers again to the Port Arthur area to give their forces artillery support. Faced with lots of damaged ships from the last time, the Navy refused by arguing that they need to preserve their ships for defence of Home Islands and for other contingencies. That allmost brought Army and Navy in open conflict, but the Navy decided that they have to show one last show of support for the Army, so they decided to send their ships into harm's way again.

- the main result of hat was additional damage to their ships. Few light cruisers recieved strong damage and few destroyers were sunk- but Soviet forces managed to withold these bombardments and continued their push towards Port Arthur.

- now Stalin was worried about German intentions ( having crushed France, but Britain did not make the peace ) so he decided to offer peace negotiations to the Japanese.
Japanese Army decided that they refuse any peace that does not return all of Manchuria and Korea to Japan. Navy on the other hand, knew that the war in China was lost and wanted to at least keep as much as possible part of Korea and at least bases in Port Arthur and Shandong peninsula ( Chinese have still not managed to conquer eastern part of peninsula ). Army started to accuse the Navy for treason and cowardice and lack of support. One IJN admiral retorted: "What do you want, to beach our battleships and cruisers on Manchurian coast and act as artillery support for Army?"

- that prompted IJN to use their marine forces to make coup against IJA. They managed to take the majority of IJA headquarters and arrest/kill their commanders. The Emperor and Government later supported their actions. After that, Japan accepted Soviet offer of peace negotiations. Meanwhile, Soviets have managed to take Port Arthur.

- Peace negotiations have been held in Stockholm.

- Japan had to give back to China everything in the Mainland ( including the Hainan island ). China has promised not to militarise Shandong and Hainan area and allow for free trade with Japan. Japan managed to gain northern part of Sakhalin, but had to accept independence for Korea, with both Soviet and Japanese forces withdrawn within next 3 months. Korea accepted to have Jejo island demilitarised and to have free trade with Japan. By making that concessions, Japan managed to awoid paying reparations to China and Soviet Union.
 
OK, after this rather long part, what's next? I know that convincing argument might be made that Japan ( especially the Navy ) would want to take "Southern Resources Area" now after Northern Area was out of reach and with European colonies without protection of their European metropolitan governments. But, let's take that they decide that they can't do that because that would cause conflict with the United States, so they need at least 2-3 years to re-form their carrier fighters and their crews and repair the damage on battleships and cruisers.
 
Now, by 1942-43 the outcome of war in Europe is pretty much certain, especially with massive US production starting to take shape. I don't think that even careless IJN admiral might puh for war against the United States.

So, let's discuss how could the IJN develop without having such war against the United States.
 
As for the situation in Korea and China:

Soviet Forces in Korea, before withdrawal, have left their weapons to local communists and have sent Korean communists from Soviet Union back to Korea. Japanese, on the other hand, refused to give weapons to Koreans, so Communists managed to take over of Korea fairly easy.

In China, Chiang asked Soviets to withdraw from Chinese territory, but Stalin refused. Stalin wanted that Chiang allows freedom of work for Communist Party of China and recognise their PLA formations as part of regular Chinese forces, but under command of Chiang. When Chiang refused to accept that, Mao Tse Dong, leader of Chinese communists proclaimed People's Republic of China in Peking in autumn 1940. Commnists were allready well supplied with Soviet old weapons, so while Chiang and his NRA tried to crush them, they were not sucessful. PLA managed to hold their attacks off. After German invasion of Soviet Union, Stalin ordered withdrawal of large part of Soviet forces from PRC, but left the bulk of their, by then largely obsolete weapons to the PLA. So China was divided into two countries, Peoples Republic of China in the north ( Manchuria and area south of Peking ) and Republic of China in the south ( government in Nanjing ).
 
Of course, first order of business for the IJN at the time was repair of damage recieverd on their ships during Second Russo-Japanese War ( Japanese name for war ). Second priority was making up the losses of IJN Air Service pilots and flight crews during the war. But, long training for IJA Air Service pilots was significant obstacle for that. They expect that they will need at least 2 years to train enough replacement crews.
 
There might be some serious budget problems, seeing as how Stalin just curb stomped the Army. The army will need funds to rebuild and modernize.
Russia will be the main enemy so future ships might not be built for long range deployment.
Oh they're going to increase the armor protection on their torpedo racks, to a 23mm AP shell probably going up offering protection from a 37mm shell.
 

nbcman

Donor
After losing almost all of their Empire, why would Japan need the resources of SE Asia? I could see both the IJA & IJN being removed from power for getting humiliated by the terms of that peace treaty and for getting Japan in the mess to begin with. Even if they stay in power, why would they not trade for the resources since there is no reason for the US to Embargo Japan
 
After losing almost all of their Empire, why would Japan need the resources of SE Asia? I could see both the IJA & IJN being removed from power for getting humiliated by the terms of that peace treaty and for getting Japan in the mess to begin with. Even if they stay in power, why would they not trade for the resources since there is no reason for the US to Embargo Japan

I agree, there's no reason for US embargo here. I admit, IJN is still here, so the United States might be worried still, but I wouldn't consider Japan as serious threat to the US interests, at least not ih short term, and with all US buildup of navy under Vinson Acts, perhaps never?
 
There might be some serious budget problems, seeing as how Stalin just curb stomped the Army. The army will need funds to rebuild and modernize.
Russia will be the main enemy so future ships might not be built for long range deployment.
Oh they're going to increase the armor protection on their torpedo racks, to a 23mm AP shell probably going up offering protection from a 37mm shell.


Can you explain that please?

I agree, Soviets and Korea will be the main enemies in the future. Of course, China might want to get Taiwan...
 
Can you explain that please?

I agree, Soviets and Korea will be the main enemies in the future. Of course, China might want to get Taiwan...
The armor on Japanese torpedo racks was around 1½ inches thick a 23mm cannon shell ,a common Soviet aircraft weapon by the end of the war, is getting through that. The long lance torpedo is fueled by pure oxygen, one spark and BOOM! the torpedos explode sinking a destroyer or seriously damaging a cruiser.
 
The armor on Japanese torpedo racks was around 1½ inches thick a 23mm cannon shell ,a common Soviet aircraft weapon by the end of the war, is getting through that. The long lance torpedo is fueled by pure oxygen, one spark and BOOM! the torpedos explode sinking a destroyer or seriously damaging a cruiser.


I understand now. Wouldn't that made them a bit top heavy ( and they were allready pretty top heawyy )?
 
After losing almost all of their Empire, why would Japan need the ... IJA & IJN being removed from power ....
The IJA will strike back and I cant see the IJN walking away from this cleanly, I think both go down and you get a fully civilian government, it would not be involved in China so can sit out the war and simply try and rebuild by trading with the western allies and the neutrals after all it will be one of the only national on earth to have free industrial capacity from 41-45.

I simply don't think anything would make them to go to war with the west and they will try to build up for a rematch v USSR and China but are unlikely to be able to do so unless Germany does much better?
 
it's just that the navy was instrumental in reining the Army in.
I don't think it matters, the army and navy both had effectively clans of families that they came from, the IJA was obviously larger in numbers due to the larger number of officers and army needs v the high cost of ships so it will have a huge disaffected backing.

The Army will never allow the Navy to have a higher position so its only going to go with a civilian government and once you get that it will quickly act in its own not the navy interests....

Once you are not likely to fight USN due to being out of China and SE Asia combined with the two ocean navy making any war a obvious auto defeat the desire to build to fight USN will go away, IJN will be cut to save money both for civilian reasons as well as to prepare defences against the more likely opponent in USSR/China.

PS I would add
Japan ... had to accept independence for Korea
Not sure if it would really have to as the later war showed anybody with navel superiority could hold the narrow gaps effectively and its good defensive terrain, they might end up on a line Anju-Hamhung with the south under Japan?
 
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