Japanese Mandate of the Philippines

What if Germany had taken the Philippines instead of the Americans and after WW1, Japan gets it as a League of Nations Mandate? How will that affect things in the following decades? Will Japan still be as militaristic with its imperialist ambitions satisfied with a colony like the PH? Or does it not matter and serve only as a stepping stone in acquiring China as a colony? What will happen to the balance of power in the Pacific? In relation to the other powers like the British and Americans?

Also, what will happen within the Philippines? It would be interesting to see a hybrid Spanish-German-Japanese influenced Filipino culture.
 

CalBear

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What if Germany had taken the Philippines instead of the Americans and after WW1, Japan gets it as a League of Nations Mandate? How will that affect things in the following decades? Will Japan still be as militaristic with its imperialist ambitions satisfied with a colony like the PH? Or does it not matter and serve only as a stepping stone in acquiring China as a colony? What will happen to the balance of power in the Pacific? In relation to the other powers like the British and Americans?

Also, what will happen within the Philippines? It would be interesting to see a hybrid Spanish-German-Japanese influenced Filipino culture.

It would remove the main reason that the Japanese had no choise but try to knock the U.S. out of the Pacific War.

The hard part is getting the Germans into a war with Spain, including naval action in the Pacific, before 1900.
 
Why would Japan get the LoN mandate for the Philippines instead of the US? Considering that Japan only lost 495 men compared to the US' 116,000 I don't see the Japanese making a strong case that they deserve it. You'd have to change WWI in order for Japan to get the Philippines.
 

Hendryk

Banned
The hard part is getting the Germans into a war with Spain, including naval action in the Pacific, before 1900.
They could decide to grab the Philippines and come up with the requisite casus belli. Germany was fairly active in the Pacific in the 1890s, and in 1897 used the pretext of two missionaries being killed in Shandong to claim Qingdao and the surrounding region.
 
They could decide to grab the Philippines and come up with the requisite casus belli. Germany was fairly active in the Pacific in the 1890s, and in 1897 used the pretext of two missionaries being killed in Shandong to claim Qingdao and the surrounding region.

IIRC there were German cruisers present when the American fleet under Dewey entered Manila to dislodge the Spanish and ostensibly support the Filipino Independence. I'm not entirely sure though...
 

Susano

Banned
They could decide to grab the Philippines and come up with the requisite casus belli. Germany was fairly active in the Pacific in the 1890s, and in 1897 used the pretext of two missionaries being killed in Shandong to claim Qingdao and the surrounding region.

Yes, but at that time evrybdoy used such pretexts in China. As it was, like in most of Europe, German sympathies laid rather with Spain in the OTL American-Spanish War.

Of course, what could be possible is that France, wghere apparently these sympathies wer every striong could be drawn into this, and Germany, well... uses this opportunity. But even then most likely the Philippines would become American while Germany gains from the French...
 
Why would Japan get the LoN mandate for the Philippines instead of the US? Considering that Japan only lost 495 men compared to the US' 116,000 I don't see the Japanese making a strong case that they deserve it. You'd have to change WWI in order for Japan to get the Philippines.

Kidblast

If the Philippines were German controlled then like the other German colonies they would get attacked by the allies. Japan and Britain are the only allies with enough power to really consider that, provided the islands aren't crippled by rebellion and unrest. Britain is a lot further away and will be rather distracted by events in Europe. As such the Japanese occupy the Philippines, like they do various other German possessions in the Pacific. Since they will be occupying them and the islands lie directly across the Japanese lines of trade I can't see them agreeing to concede a mandate to the US.

The difficult bit, as people say, would be to have the Germans in control of the islands by 1914.

Steve
 
If the Philippines are German then the argument that a larger navy is required to protect their far-flung empire carries more weight. The decision by Willie to build up the fleet may not be regarded with such alarm in Britain as in OTL. An agreement to base a significant proportion of the ships in the Far East may be sufficient to avert war altogether.

If war does still happen, it is by no means certain that Japan has the capacity to invade and occupy the Philippines or defeat what may very well be a formidable German Far Eastern Fleet. German strategy will definitely be different and may include a capacity in the Philippines sufficient to deter invasion and even play havoc with British interests in the Pacific. If this happened then the fleet based at home would still be formidable enough to require the RN to commit large forces to contain it.

A significant German naval presence would mean at least the Japanese need to keep their fleet close to home waters. No units available to escort the ANZACs to Egypt meaning British ships will have to be used thereby reducing the Home Fleet size and capacity. As far as I am aware, the quality of the German ships would be far better than the Japanese both technically and in crew capability,especially gunnery. Does anyone have any authoritative data on this?

Presuming the Japanese can get a force ashore, I assume it would not be an easy task to besiege fortified positions with the sort of army Japan had in 1914. Even a division or two of German regulars could presumably hold out almost indefinitely if supplied and if the German navy continues to have even a token force still operating in the area tying down the Japanese fleet. If Japan can defeat the Germans at sea, the land war could be joined by ANZAC reinforcements thereby cancelling Gallipoli and maybe having consequences on the Western Front. Although a slightly smaller German army in France may mean the consequences are not that great.
 
IIRC there were German cruisers present when the American fleet under Dewey entered Manila to dislodge the Spanish and ostensibly support the Filipino Independence. I'm not entirely sure though...

Yeah that's right but I don't believe they weren't there to support Filipino independence but rather, grab the islands for themselves.

Why would Japan get the LoN mandate for the Philippines instead of the US? Considering that Japan only lost 495 men compared to the US' 116,000 I don't see the Japanese making a strong case that they deserve it. You'd have to change WWI in order for Japan to get the Philippines.

I agree with what stevep said. The war would be pretty different because even before the US enters the war in Europe, Japan would have already committed a large number of troops in taking the Philippines and I'd imagine the campaign to be a long, bloody one, costing a lot of Japanese lives. Ultimately, whether or not the Japanese win in the Philippines, the war in Europe will decide it and as the Germans loose in Europe, whatever the situation is in the Islands, the Philippines would automatically be ceded to Japan.
 
Phillipine troops are pretty tough, and Willie feared and hated the Japanese. There wouldn't be many German troops in the Phillipines, but there would be a much, much, bigger, and much, much, better trained Phillipine army. I could see a long war a la the African war happening in the swamps and inlets of the Phillipines.
 
Phillipine troops are pretty tough, and Willie feared and hated the Japanese. There wouldn't be many German troops in the Phillipines, but there would be a much, much, bigger, and much, much, better trained Phillipine army. I could see a long war a la the African war happening in the swamps and inlets of the Phillipines.

Maybe they could come up with Filipino Askaris and the war would be fought mainly between the Japanese and the Filipino Askaris under German commanders. Also, I think most of the German officers there would be from the Navy as the land forces would be mostly Filipino.
 
It would remove the main reason that the Japanese had no choise but try to knock the U.S. out of the Pacific War.

The hard part is getting the Germans into a war with Spain, including naval action in the Pacific, before 1900.

Not necessarily. Have you ever read 1901 by Robert Conroy. Just assume that the USA gives into the demands that Germany makes
 
I agree with what stevep said. The war would be pretty different because even before the US enters the war in Europe, Japan would have already committed a large number of troops in taking the Philippines and I'd imagine the campaign to be a long, bloody one, costing a lot of Japanese lives. Ultimately, whether or not the Japanese win in the Philippines, the war in Europe will decide it and as the Germans loose in Europe, whatever the situation is in the Islands, the Philippines would automatically be ceded to Japan.

I believe that there was an agreement between Britain and Japan relatively early in the war that would divide German Pacific possessions between them. Those north of the equator would go to Japan, while those south would go to Britain.
 
What if Germany had taken the Philippines instead of the Americans and after WW1, Japan gets it as a League of Nations Mandate? How will that affect things in the following decades? Will Japan still be as militaristic with its imperialist ambitions satisfied with a colony like the PH? Or does it not matter and serve only as a stepping stone in acquiring China as a colony? What will happen to the balance of power in the Pacific? In relation to the other powers like the British and Americans?

Also, what will happen within the Philippines? It would be interesting to see a hybrid Spanish-German-Japanese influenced Filipino culture.

As Filipino, I know this. If German had taken the Philippines instead of Americans in OTL and after WWI in ATL, Japan gets Philippines as a League of Nations Mandate. The effects would be: There would be more Germans in the Philippines instead of Americans and I think by 1914 in ATL, Filipinos still speak Philippine languages and Spanish language instead of German (German is a difficult language in Filipino sense) and after 1914, there would be more Japanese would live in the Philippines especially in Baguio and Davao and much intermarriages between the Filipinos and Japanese or Germans than in OTL.
 
Phillipine troops are pretty tough, and Willie feared and hated the Japanese. There wouldn't be many German troops in the Phillipines, but there would be a much, much, bigger, and much, much, better trained Phillipine army. I could see a long war a la the African war happening in the swamps and inlets of the Phillipines.

We need to include LVB in this somehow....
 
If the Philippines are German then the argument that a larger navy is required to protect their far-flung empire carries more weight. The decision by Willie to build up the fleet may not be regarded with such alarm in Britain as in OTL. An agreement to base a significant proportion of the ships in the Far East may be sufficient to avert war altogether.

If war does still happen, it is by no means certain that Japan has the capacity to invade and occupy the Philippines or defeat what may very well be a formidable German Far Eastern Fleet. German strategy will definitely be different and may include a capacity in the Philippines sufficient to deter invasion and even play havoc with British interests in the Pacific. If this happened then the fleet based at home would still be formidable enough to require the RN to commit large forces to contain it.

A significant German naval presence would mean at least the Japanese need to keep their fleet close to home waters. No units available to escort the ANZACs to Egypt meaning British ships will have to be used thereby reducing the Home Fleet size and capacity. As far as I am aware, the quality of the German ships would be far better than the Japanese both technically and in crew capability,especially gunnery. Does anyone have any authoritative data on this?

Presuming the Japanese can get a force ashore, I assume it would not be an easy task to besiege fortified positions with the sort of army Japan had in 1914. Even a division or two of German regulars could presumably hold out almost indefinitely if supplied and if the German navy continues to have even a token force still operating in the area tying down the Japanese fleet. If Japan can defeat the Germans at sea, the land war could be joined by ANZAC reinforcements thereby cancelling Gallipoli and maybe having consequences on the Western Front. Although a slightly smaller German army in France may mean the consequences are not that great.
MarkA

It would requires a significant difference in both naval and military policy in Germany. I don't think they used many European troops in their African colonies and doubt they would do in the Pacific. As what was important to them was the vital early victory in Europe. Could still be very tough for the Japanese with a local force putting up stiff guerrilla resistance as in German East Africa.

Similarly in naval terms I can't see the Germans risking large fleet elements that far from home. They might have something like the Goeben which happens to be in a showing the flag phase. [Just had this image of the Goeben fleeing to Shanghai and being offered to the Chinese government!:eek:] However capital ships would be too vulnerable and difficult to supply so far from home so doubt if they would be risked. Also the German ships tended to be designed for short ranged operation.

If the Germans did have a stronger fleet, especially including capital ships, then it wouldn't last long unless there had been a diplomatic revolution so great that Britain didn't have a strong naval rivalry with Germany. Both Japan and Britain would need to get rid of the German squadron and considerable forces would be concentrated in the region quickly to overwhelm the Germans and secure supply line.

Steve
 
OK, lets say Japan does get a MAndate in the Phillipines. Come the late 1930s they are still going to have the same problems in tewrms of oil shortages they have OTL. And that means the Dutch East Indies and Burma are on the hit list. Plus if Japan is active in China they would probably be up against the US in terms of a diplomatic crisis. The main thing I would see coming out of this is Japan is able to build its defensive perimeter a lot faster post PH (provided it still happens). But would the US have as large a navy in this TL
 
OK, lets say Japan does get a MAndate in the Phillipines. Come the late 1930s they are still going to have the same problems in tewrms of oil shortages they have OTL. And that means the Dutch East Indies and Burma are on the hit list. Plus if Japan is active in China they would probably be up against the US in terms of a diplomatic crisis. The main thing I would see coming out of this is Japan is able to build its defensive perimeter a lot faster post PH (provided it still happens). But would the US have as large a navy in this TL

Depends on if the Washington Treaty exists [and lasts as long] or not? If it does then at that point the naval forces on either side won't change significantly as there hasn't been time before the treaty expired for much new construction. If no treaty then a lot depends on the US attitude. With no colony in the W Pacific isolationism might be stronger and the demand for a navy less. Alternatively, because it lacks a forward base from which to threaten Japanese lines of trade and communication, some could argue that the US needs a bigger fleet to be able to quickly win any war with Japan.

If you presume no major changes from OTL other than a Japanese mandate the question might be would Japan gamble on not attacking the US? [Having the Philippines in Japanese hands is a BIG regional butterfly so difficult to see that other things wouldn't change].

Steve
 
Philippine troops are pretty tough, and Willie feared and hated the Japanese. There wouldn't be many German troops in the Philippines, but there would be a much, much, bigger, and much, much, better trained Philippine army. I could see a long war a la the African war happening in the swamps and inlets of the Philippines.
Given that it took the US 4 years to put down the Philippine Freedom fighters, I don't see Germany doing it any Quicker.
As such I don't see a large Native Philippine Army by 1914.
 
Presuming the Japanese can get a force ashore, I assume it would not be an easy task to besiege fortified positions with the sort of army Japan had in 1914.

Japanese army was perhaps the most experienced in modern siege warfare by 1914 because some events in 1904-1905...
 
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