Japanese invasion of USSR, c. 1936-39

[Gillan1220]

Wow - I did a quick comparison, and the Christie M.1928 could allegedly hit a top speed of 42mph on tracks, nearly double what the Type 97 Chi-Ha could hit and still substantially faster than the Type 95 Ha-Go, which could reach 28mph on tracks while traveling on road. The old Type 89, which was getting phased out as of the onset of war with the wallies, could only hit a top speed of 16mph on tracks/road.

No idea what sorts of armor and armament the Christie prototypes carried during tests; it's clear from the photos I've seen that they were tested while carrying some sort of light/medium machine gun and it's quite likely that they'd lose speed when up-gunned or up-armored. Still, pretty clear that they could've designed a much faster tank, which would've been an asset in a hypothetical invasion.

A swarm of Ha-Gos and Chi-Has could overwhelm a T-26. I mean yes the T-26 may be better but once it runs out of ammo, it can be overwhelmed. I think the Japanese managed to destroy or knockout a couple of Soviet tanks in Khalkin Gol.

 

[herlockscholmes]

I think the Japanese managed to destroy or knockout a couple of Soviet tanks in Khalkin Gol.

Yeah, the issue was more that they were massively outnumbered. In an absolute sense, the Soviets lost way, way more armor in Khalkin Gol, but as always, could better afford to replace.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Can we talk about the Soviet response to the invasion please!? Because I think such a conflict would force Stalin to pull the plug on his Great Purge early on.

 

[herlockscholmes]

Can we talk about the Soviet response to the invasion please!? Because I think such a conflict would force Stalin to pull the plug on his Great Purge early on.

Definitely. I'll start with some general thoughts. Assuming that the Soviets are in a roughly similar geopolitical position to OTL (it was suggested somewhere that you might need a POD early on with Trotsky taking power for Japan to really lean in this direction, but for the sake of argument, I'll assume not *that* much has changed) it's almost certain that Stalin needs to throw aside the purges immediately after the invasion is launched.

The Soviets OTL had the advantage of massive numbers in the Far East, and of (I believe) relatively high-quality troops. They also have no less than one Georgy Zhukov as a battlefield commander.

I doubt that the years preceding the invasion leave the USSR completely sitting on its hands. They're going to notice the Japanese developing capabilities, not to mention infrastructure, necessary for an invasion of Siberia.

Where I'm going with these two aforementioned points: I wonder if Tukhachevsky survives ITTL, and if his thoughts on Soviet doctrine/efforts to improve Soviet military readiness end up playing a significant role in the eventual conflict. In fact, you could maybe see a scenario where Zhukov, blamed for any initial setbacks, is relegated to the sidelines and Tukhachevsky is pulled from the other side of the country to lead the defense.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Definitely. I'll start with some general thoughts. Assuming that the Soviets are in a roughly similar geopolitical position to OTL (it was suggested somewhere that you might need a POD early on with Trotsky taking power for Japan to really lean in this direction, but for the sake of argument, I'll assume not *that* much has changed) it's almost certain that Stalin needs to throw aside the purges immediately after the invasion is launched.

The Soviets OTL had the advantage of massive numbers in the Far East, and of (I believe) relatively high-quality troops. They also have no less than one Georgy Zhukov as a battlefield commander.

I doubt that the years preceding the invasion leave the USSR completely sitting on its hands. They're going to notice the Japanese developing capabilities, not to mention infrastructure, necessary for an invasion of Siberia.

Where I'm going with these two aforementioned points: I wonder if Tukhachevsky survives ITTL, and if his thoughts on Soviet doctrine/efforts to improve Soviet military readiness end up playing a significant role in the eventual conflict. In fact, you could maybe see a scenario where Zhukov, blamed for any initial setbacks, is relegated to the sidelines and Tukhachevsky is pulled from the other side of the country to lead the defense.

I would prefer keeping Soviet Union politics the same up to the start of this war. As the idea of Stalin's Soviet Union being dragged into a war during his Great Purge/consolidation of power a fascinating one.

Personally I see Stalin dismissing the reports coming from the far east about the Japanese invasion the same way he did Hitler's invasion like OTL. Heck when he does realize the invasion is real and succeeding in it's goals, he may just double down on his ongoing Purges as he would believe that the Japanese are funding his "enemies".

This may cause Hitler to take up Eastern focused strategy because of it.

 

[herlockscholmes]

Personally I see Stalin dismissing the reports coming from the far east about the Japanese invasion the same way he did Hitler's invasion like OTL. Heck when he does realize the invasion is real and succeeding in it's goals, he may just double down on his ongoing Purges as he would believe that the Japanese are funding his "enemies".

Interesting. I buy it. Certainly Zhukov's odds of getting purged go through the roof. The other dynamic I'm probably not adequately accounting for here is that loss of this territory doesn't come with the same sort of existential dread for the Soviet state as Barbarossa certainly did in 1941. I don't think they'd sort of blithely accept the loss of the Soviet Far East or completely fail to resist, but I think it could lead to some sluggishness in the response. Also, OTL Stalin calmed down a tad on the purges partly because he could see the urgent necessity of promoting qualified commanders - in this case, where the Japanese are far from Moscow and he has more time to be annoyed with the fact that the invasion's happening, he could be even more petty and destructive than OTL.

This may cause Hitler to take up Eastern focused strategy because of it.

Yeah. The formal coordination between Japan and Germany here might not exceed OTL too much, but in this scenario, Japan's spent a lot of time focusing on mechanization and drawing from the expertise of military leaders who really studied what the Germans are doing. The Germans are certainly going to be aware of what Japan has in store and I wouldn't be shocked if they decide (somewhat independently) to capitalize on it.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Interesting. I buy it. Certainly Zhukov's odds of getting purged go through the roof. The other dynamic I'm probably not adequately accounting for here is that loss of this territory doesn't come with the same sort of existential dread for the Soviet state as Barbarossa certainly did in 1941. I don't think they'd sort of blithely accept the loss of the Soviet Far East or completely fail to resist, but I think it could lead to some sluggishness in the response. Also, OTL Stalin calmed down a tad on the purges partly because he could see the urgent necessity of promoting qualified commanders - in this case, where the Japanese are far from Moscow and he has more time to be annoyed with the fact that the invasion's happening, he could be even more petty and destructive than OTL.

Very true. May lead to the Soviet Union collapsing earlier than OTL as a result of Stalin's destructive paranoia and sociopathy.

Plus side is that the Chinese don't suffer nearly as much with this conflict going on.

 

[herlockscholmes]

Very true. May lead to the Soviet Union collapsing earlier than OTL as a result of Stalin's destructive paranoia and sociopathy.

Plus side is that the Chinese don't suffer nearly as much with this conflict going on.

An interesting angle to contemplate: the IJA did have a unit of Russians in WW2 raised from the remnants of the White faction living in China at the time of occupation. With Stalin's anger getting directed left and right, who's to say that they might not have been able to recruit more Russians to the ranks/let some of the old Tsarist fanatics and their descendants loose into the USSR to cause chaos?

As for the Chinese, yeah, they definitely don't (at least initially) suffer as in OTL. Some Kodoha faction members saw them as potential allies against the Soviet Union and envisioned them actively participating in the invasion in some way.

The question of wartime atrocities ITTL (I want to be as respectful as possible in touching on this) seems likely to be a complicated one. The Kodoha faction members I've read about didn't emphasize the "warrior spirit" so to speak in the same way that Toseiha did; there seems to have been a bit of a sense of "warrior spirit is only going to count for so much in the future if we're up against tanks and heavy artillery." Suicide tactics are less likely to become much of a thing here. As for the atrocities - I would imagine some terrible things would've occurred in occupied Soviet territory during the campaign and it's probably best to leave it there.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

An interesting angle to contemplate: the IJA did have a unit of Russians in WW2 raised from the remnants of the White faction living in China at the time of occupation. With Stalin's anger getting directed left and right, who's to say that they might not have been able to recruit more Russians to the ranks/let some of the old Tsarist fanatics and their descendants loose into the USSR to cause chaos?

I honestly think incorporating Outer Machuria into the Machukuo state, and maybe(if doubtful) Japanese officials would have reversed their stance on Russian people(s) as Stalin's purges would have caused an inflow of refugees. As the Fugu Plan was concieved for the same reason OTL.

As for the Chinese, yeah, they definitely don't (at least initially) suffer as in OTL. Some Kodoha faction members saw them as potential allies against the Soviet Union and envisioned them actively participating in the invasion in some way.

They would be to busy with their civil war to do anything.

 

[herlockscholmes]

the Fugu Plan was concieved for the same reason

The Fugu Plan is...quite an interesting piece of history itself.