Japanese invasion of Kurils in summer of 1991
- Thread starter Khanzeer
- Start date
Real collapse of Russian/Soviet Armed Forces didn't happen before 1994, so I think that before that period, the Japanese would get curbstomped even without nukes.
Don't know. Seem to recall they still had the older Nike AA missiles in 1984. Could be wrong there.
Unless the US wants to get involved in World War 3 over a bunch of tiny islands, the Soviets will be free to use all the nukes they want in defense of their territorial integrity. And that's the thing. They DON'T. And everyone knows it.
Khanzeer
Banned
But what military options USSR have short of nukes
That is what I'm trying to debate/ discuss
Khanzeer
Banned
According to IISS MB 1989, Nike and HAWK
But navy has standard SAMs on 4 destroyers others have sea sparrows
But like you said SCUD are only terror weapons not precision strike weapons
More useful would be the conventional warhead ARM kh22 carried by strategic air arm Tu22M and Tu95.
Khanzeer
Banned
Will the substantial soviet Pacific surface fleet be employed?
I think its unnecessary risk to deploy them
1- Japanese DE Subs are sophisticated and a real concern
2 - they add no real value in the ASUW role , other than what can be achieved by other platforms so close to home waters
3- losing even one big ship would be extremely embarrassing
4 the surface ship ASW patrols can continue to guard the Soviet bastion seas as before
I think its unnecessary risk to deploy them
1- Japanese DE Subs are sophisticated and a real concern
2 - they add no real value in the ASUW role , other than what can be achieved by other platforms so close to home waters
3- losing even one big ship would be extremely embarrassing
4 the surface ship ASW patrols can continue to guard the Soviet bastion seas as before
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It is an unnecessary risk to threaten a nuclear armed state, with the knowledge that no one else supports you. If the US and NATO aren't going to interfere, there's nothing stopping the Soviets from saying "if you try taking the Kurils, we turn your cities to radioactive ash". If the Japanese insist, the Soviets can then sit and have a good laugh at their stupidity, while Japan burns to death in nuclear hellfire.
It is a unnecessary risk to think they are bluffing, so the better choice is not trying to take the Kurils.
In that exercise the air battle was above the overcast, or arena ceiling & invisible to us. Tactical aircraft rolling in on ground support strikes were all I was aware of. The air force personnel were off in other sections doing whatever they do in such training events. Other than a Marine air liaison officer I never saw any within speaking distance.
The Hawk AA missiles make sense. the Marines and Army had them all over our far eastern turf in those days.
Take a close look at what the USSR had for amphibious or littoral warfare. Not just the soviet Marines for forcible entry, but general transport for follow on forces. I cant remember details from that part of the pre game briefs forCHERRY MOUNTAIN, but the Red Army did not fly into Hokkaido tourist class. (Well maybe some Spetsnaz did.)
Khanzeer
Banned
Does not look good the initial forces are likely to be spreadheaded by a handful of ropoucha assault ships followed by defenceless polnocy and alligator classes.It would be slaughtered by Japanese navy unless Soviets escort it heavily with missile corvettes and the large rocket ships.It would be safer not to risk them or just use land based airpower to keep the enemy ships at bay
And considering that Soviets had shitload of such surface ships, they would.
Khanzeer
Banned
Maybe the 80 or so Osa boats can be used as missile sponges and maybe land a few lucky hits
Other than that Soviets do not have that many ASM equipped ships that are so readily expendable
Yup, hence the couple posts about Japanese pacific and anti war culture in the 1980s & later.
I also can't see any reason, besides an untapped handwavium deposit beneath the Kuriles (or should we call them the Chishima Islands?), why Japan would want to risk becoming an international pariah and risking another nuclear strike, considering the last time that happened. Then there's Article 9, which really isn't worth abrogating for some fishing villages and... a better strategic position against a potential enemy which such an attack would turn into an actual enemy.
I'm trying to play the ball here, but there isn't enough skin in the game to keep Japan playing.
Khanzeer
Banned
i appreciate the input , however on the flip side
soviets will not go directly to nukes unless japanese come with their whole navy and park it outside vladivastock and demand surrender, they have other ways of fighting if it is the japanese alone
i admit it is unlikely given the political situation in japan at that time [ but again we debate very inplausible stuff here ] but one way that might tempt japanese leadership is that 1- southern kurils are considered part of home islands so it is a "defensive mission" 2- the weakness of russia in 1990s is a once in a century chance for japan to take advantage of 3-extreme unlikeliness of chinese , US or european intervention on side of soviets
Like the USSR vaporizes into chaos, & the Japanese take the Kuriles into 'Protective Custody' just to keep the good people there safe.
Khanzeer
Banned
Nobody will buy that in the inter national community but sure maybe Japanese can try
Better them than the Chinese. If the US is intervening along the far eastern former Soviet Pacific coast, to support one faction or another, then a Japanese "Peace Keeping Force' in the Kurils might work. Sort of a like the 1918-1920 intervention...