Japanese invasion of Kurils in summer of 1991

I don't think the JGSDF had any formation trained in amphibious ops at that point in time.

This is only plausible to me if we are talking about some sort of multinational intervention. Do the US and its allies get involved, say, in supporting the legitimate Soviet government against military units loyal to coup plotters?
 
What amphibious landing forces does Japan have in the early 1990s to carry out this hypothetical operation?

I don't think the JGSDF had any formation trained in amphibious ops at that point in time.

In January 1985 I participated in the annual two week map exercise CHERRY MOUNTAIN. This exercise was a combined US/JSDF exercise fighting out a Soviet invasion of Hokkaido. It was ongoing in the sense each years exercise picked up where the previous left off. The core ten days played through 14 days of game time. The year I participate the 'Allies' were defending a beached on the south end of Hokkaido against Red Army counter attacks. What I gathered from the pre exercise briefs is the JSDF ground forces were landed primarily with US amphib units. However there were remarks about the JSDF Maritime branch having some sort of limited amphib capability. I recall the S Korean Navy had a batch of old 1940s era LST tooling around their harbors and coast. Perhaps the Japanese had some too. They may have also had some of the many many ferries in Japans waters modified for military use.

Since Japan consists of multiple islands and the principle transport routes between many regions are by water, it would make sense for the JGSDF to have some training in littoral operations & getting on and off a boat. I think on of the JGSDF officers I trained with at Fuji referred to ship movement. But its been 34 years & my memory is dim.

Most of the participants in the CM exercise were the actual division principle staff. That is the division commander, the G2, G3, ect... Air Forces senior staff, navy HQ staff. Altogether a half dozen division HQ, some fleet & sub fleet HQ, & assorted Air Force and wing HQ staff. Over 300 officers and a few Master Sgts. The 3rd Marine Div blew it off, sending a major as Div commander, a Captain for the artillery group, I a 1st Lt filled a Lt Cols position. Our Div commander did make a cameo appearance at the pregame party, then haiakued back to Okinawa. We partied as guests of the 5th JGSF Division. In the exercise they were on our left flank, across a thin but deep estuary running inland.

Located in one of the foyers just outside the three acre map room was a card table with a jigsaw puzzle. Folks passing by there would casually stop and sort the puzzle for a moment. I recall a grizzled JSDF master Sgt grinning in triumph after bringing a group of pieces together. The collective effort of passerbys brought it together in six or seven days.
 
Because most people have no idea what " ORBAT/ OOB", "KM", "RN" means. They may have heard about sealion from popular media or read some popular history article and think "Cool! Never knoe that. The Germans look awesome!"

Then they find AH.com and want to about this "fabulous" idea that how can the awesome Germans land in UK.

One thing to recognize is that the standard of discussion here is much higher than mosy netizen get used to.
Nah, man. It’s the uniforms, they grant +5 to fanboy inspiration with a 15% chance of Wehraboo Conversion on a crit.
Since Japan consists of multiple islands and the principle transport routes between many regions are by water, it would make sense for the JGSDF to have some training in littoral operations & getting on and off a boat.
Given the probabilities of natural disasters I’d be horrified if Japan didn’t have at least some capability for getting in over a beach when infrastructure is unavailable, even if a contested landing is way out of scope.
 
**AFP Wire service report, July 09 1991.**
The Japanese Cities of Hiroshima and Kokura saw the first use of Hydrogen Bombs in combat early this morning, NHK News Tokyo stated, confirming a statement issued by Radio Moscow. Hirsohima was conincidentally the first city to be attacked with an Atomic Weapon nearly 50 years ago. Kokura had been scheduled to be the second, but the attack on it was aborted.

Seperatley, the Japanese Emperors spokesman annonced the arrest and execution of Prime Minister
Toshiki Kaifu and his cabinet. The Emperor also has decided to revive the ancient office of Shogun, and Admiral Stanley Arthur, Commander US 7th Fleet has been named as the first holder of the office.
 
...
Given the probabilities of natural disasters I’d be horrified if Japan didn’t have at least some capability for getting in over a beach when infrastructure is unavailable, even if a contested landing is way out of scope.

Contested landings are out of fashion anyway. Landing at weak points was the preference since the start of my training in 1975. For a model look at the Tinian battle in 1944, or the Nettuno/Anzio landing
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Soviet defences in kurils would not be significant anyway plus the Japanese 30+ destroyers can provide fire support I'm addition to F1 and F4 armed with ASM
 

Khanzeer

Banned
This is only plausible to me if we are talking about some sort of multinational intervention. Do the US and its allies get involved, say, in supporting the legitimate Soviet government against military units loyal to coup plotters?
What coup ?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Would Japanese ports in Hokkaido be targeted by Soviet SCUD s from sakhalin island ?.
They did have the range but not sure how effective Japanese antimissile defences were
 
Would Japanese ports in Hokkaido be targeted by Soviet SCUD s from sakhalin island ?.
They did have the range but not sure how effective Japanese antimissile defences were

They could be. The 'But' is the SCUD missiles were not much more than hopped up V2 weapons & about as effective for attacking targets like ports. The Iraqis fired a bunch of them at the Coalition logistics bases during The Desert Shield campaign & managed a morale victory by hitting a barracks & maiming a couple hundred US soldiers. Analysis of that particular missile attack suggests (but did not prove) the missile would have missed its target had a intercepting missile not hit it.

In the CHERRY MOUNTAIN exercise I referred to in post 43 a umpire got frustrated with the game changing firepower of the US BB New Jersey, & contrived to have a SCUD fall on it. A flurry of those had been fired at the JGSDF 5th Division. After debate & further dice rolling the umpire conclave declared the after turret on fire. She was back in action by the late afternoon tea & cookies service.
 
Several people have mentioned the pacifism of Japans citizens. I only lived there two years & had only casual contact. I did leave in 1985 with the distinct impression of the broad and deep anti militarism of the modern Japanese. The Self Defense Ground Forces officers I meet & worked with were highly professional, and as pacifistic as the rest of the population. I cannot recall any evidence of some sort of revanchist, imperialist, facisist, or other political motivation for invading anything. I can imagine there were a few with this motivation, but I never met them.

A look at the internal political discussion over the provision of a JSDF medical unit to Op DESERT DHIELD/STORM & to other humanitarian operations in the 1990s is worth a look for judging the possibility here.

Well, there was that one ex-JSDF guy who wrote GATE, a manga and anime adaptation which is, to put it bluntly, a totally-not-blatant attempt by the JSDF at recreating the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere in a totally guilt-free fantasy world. But he's probably an exception rather than the rule.

Other than that, the only scenario where Japan can get the Kurile islands back through force is if the Soviets invaded Hokkaido for whatever reason, only to be beaten to a pulp by the US. But such a scenario almost always entails a flurry of instant sunshine at some point, if status quo ante bellum (or best case, uti possidetis) is not enforced immediately.
 
They could be. The 'But' is the SCUD missiles were not much more than hopped up V2 weapons & about as effective for attacking targets like ports. The Iraqis fired a bunch of them at the Coalition logistics bases during The Desert Shield campaign & managed a morale victory by hitting a barracks & maiming a couple hundred US soldiers. Analysis of that particular missile attack suggests (but did not prove) the missile would have missed its target had a intercepting missile not hit it.

In the CHERRY MOUNTAIN exercise I referred to in post 43 a umpire got frustrated with the game changing firepower of the US BB New Jersey, & contrived to have a SCUD fall on it. A flurry of those had been fired at the JGSDF 5th Division. After debate & further dice rolling the umpire conclave declared the after turret on fire. She was back in action by the late afternoon tea & cookies service.

Is this a military exercise or Axis and Allies game with Cold War map chages...?
 
Would Japanese ports in Hokkaido be targeted by Soviet SCUD s from sakhalin island ?.
They did have the range but not sure how effective Japanese antimissile defences were

At that juncture in time, antimissile defence system is very rare. Japan was unlikely to have any antimissile defence system.
 
Assuming that Japanese population suddenly got posessed by spirits of 8 million fallen samurai to pull it off...
I'd expect Soviet responce to be bungled. It would probably come as a complete surprise. There would be strong words and threats, but assuming US and NATO as stated by OP clearly not involved but would if nukes are used, any actual reaction would consist of throwing several thousands of conscripted kids to die in rushed and unprepaired amphibious counter-assault. Anything else would quickly hit the fact that "We have no ships. We have no men. We have no money, too." mostly the last one as technically Pacific Fleet was fairly impressive. Soviet Union would probably implode, at least I don't see most republics giving a rat's ass about some islands far away.
So, Japanese would get their islands but completely ruin any relations with USSR/Russia for years to come and very probably alarmed everyone in East Asia to the point of possible economic sanctions.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Assuming that Japanese population suddenly got posessed by spirits of 8 million fallen samurai to pull it off...
I'd expect Soviet responce to be bungled. It would probably come as a complete surprise. There would be strong words and threats, but assuming US and NATO as stated by OP clearly not involved but would if nukes are used, any actual reaction would consist of throwing several thousands of conscripted kids to die in rushed and unprepaired amphibious counter-assault. Anything else would quickly hit the fact that "We have no ships. We have no men. We have no money, too." mostly the last one as technically Pacific Fleet was fairly impressive. Soviet Union would probably implode, at least I don't see most republics giving a rat's ass about some islands far away.
So, Japanese would get their islands but completely ruin any relations with USSR/Russia for years to come and very probably alarmed everyone in East Asia to the point of possible economic sanctions.
Counter amphibious assault will be a massacre for Soviets i agree
Plus they have very few ships for those missions and distances involved are huge from kamchatka and sakhalin and high chances of interception at sea by Japanese navy
However even at the sorry state they were in 1991 do not underestimate the power of their SSN/SSGN and AVMF fleet
Even operating in their home waters their long range ASM can easily target Japanese destroyers and frigates patrolling around kurils or around hokkaido.
In the air despite the F15 , the Japanese are massively outnumbered by the far eastern command ( which has 100 + foxhound) and would be hard pressed to operate any ASW aircraft in soviet waters. The abundance of smaller soviet strike planes would ensure that losses amongst Japanese naval vessels would be very high.
And realistically that is all the Soviets can do, play to their strengths and hope the Japanese naval losses would have a sobering effect on the population.
 
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Khanzeer

Banned
Other than that, the only scenario where Japan can get the Kurile islands back through force is if the Soviets invaded Hokkaido for whatever reason, only to be beaten to a pulp by the US. But such a scenario almost always entails a flurry of instant sunshine at some point, if status quo ante bellum (or best case, uti possidetis) is not enforced immediately.
If soviet navy attacks another major naval power like Japan rest assure they would use nukes , their vessels are not really designed for prolonged conventional conflict
 

Khanzeer

Banned
They did have a fair number of antiaircraft missiles. How useful those might be I can't say.
Attrition amongst soviet aircraft will be high but considering Soviets have like 300 aircraft PGM equipped for strike roles in the far east (this is assuming 30 % serviceability) not counting bombers , they would be a serious threat to japanese naval forces esp since they have mostly sea sparrows and CIWS for AAW
 
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