Japanese invasion of Kurils in summer of 1991
- Thread starter Khanzeer
- Start date
Barry Bull
Donor
Because those members who posted those sealion threads need to study more?
That is why most of these threads are looked down upon and subjected to relentless attacks by more knowledgeable members. And we have one member actioned by the mod when his insistence of possible sealion scenarios is considered as trolling.
Of course, another course of action is to ignore these low effort sealion threads.
I was under the impression that the term ASB was originally used to describe Sealion. I don't know where you've gotten the impression that it's not used in such discussions all the time.
Barry Bull
Donor
A book which predicted a war between Japan and the US within twenty years https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/1991-09-01/coming-war-japan is perhaps not a reliable source of wisdom...
Anti-militarist sentiment was still very strong in Japan in the 1990's. ("Roughly 80 percent of Japanese oppose overseas SDF military action even under UN auspices." https://books.google.com/books?id=72IynQKXt3sC&pg=PA358)
I actually bought that book on the coming US/Japan war when it came out because with the Cold War ending I was hungry for anything that analyzed the future security environment. The book was laughable to say the least.
Barry Bull
Donor
Tom Clancy's "Executive Order" is one of the better work on a "Resurgent Japan" as he clearly explained that Japanese population is not supportive of military adventures.
Barry Bull
Donor
There is a reason why Friedman and Stratfor (Friedman was the founder) are not held in high regard by the IR and Strategic Studies Communities.
Khanzeer
Banned
Soviets cannot afford to ww3 for the sake of kurils
So they are not going to be using nukes
Japan reclamation of kurils is not akin to rebuilding the empire
To think Gorbachev' or even the most militant voices in soviet high command would start nuclear war is laughable.
At most they would wage full scale conventional war and launch conventional airstrikes at Japanese cities
Or SLCM attack on Japanese naval bases
Last edited:
Khanzeer
Banned
I never said the Book is the ultimate sorce of wisdom on Japanese foreign policy but the point is some strategists were looking at scenarios involving Japan as an offensive military power as early as 1988.So this scenario is not impossible
Sentiments against an overseas empire is one thing but reclaiming what some think are part of home islands is quite another
Khanzeer
Banned
To think germans would even attempt sealion is underestimating them , we really need multiple threads to even discuss this?
Do the Orbat of KM and RN in summer 1940
Case closed
My take was that George Friedman really, really, really wants to reenact MacArthur and Nimitz's Excellent Island Hopping Adventure.
It's not just the Kuril's. It's the precedent it sets. The Warsaw pact is burning down around their ears, the Soviet Union is collapsing, and now a foreign actor thinks it can invade Soviet soil and annex it without repercussions, which will encourage everyone else who has outstanding territorial claims on them. What if the Chinese start invading next, or god forbid, NATO decides to jump the Inter-German Border and drive towards Moscow? You can't rely on the conventional military forces to respond and repel the threat with how bad things are.
No, the only reliable answer is issue an ultimatum. Show the world that the Soviet Union may be sick, may be falling down, but she will not let herself be pushed around. If the Russians do it the right way, and allow the US to detect their launch preparations... well the US is probably going to figure "Holy Shit, they really mean it", not "Oh, they're bluffing." They're going to tell Japan they had better fold. Since the USA certainly doesn't want to start WW3 over the Kuril islands either! And I doubt Japan really wants to have nukes 3-15 go off... so if the USSR is acting so dangerously unhinged, why are you smugly sitting on the fence going "They're not going to shoot!"
Last edited:
Name one major Japanese party, politician, etc. that advocated the use of force to regain the islands. The most Japan was ever willing to contemplate--even when Russia was at her weakest-- was the use of economic incentives:
"While militarist elements may still lurk in Japan, most Japanese are decidedly uncomfortable with the use of force in international politics. That was clear during Japan’s negotiations with Russia over the Northern Territories (or southern Kuril Islands in Russia) in the 1990s. Though Japan had already begun its long economic stagnation, its military and political might was still near its peak. In contrast, Russia, following the fall of the Soviet Union, was at its nadir. Things were so bad in the Russian Far East that it was questionable whether Moscow could provide enough food or heat for its population on Sakhalin Island, let alone defend it.
"Yet, Japan did not try to use its military or political capital to pressure Russia into a settlement. Rather, Japan solely relied on the persuasive power of its economic assistance. That tactic ultimately came to nothing..." https://www.fpri.org/2015/09/the-almost-normal-country-japan-and-the-use-of-force/
"In 2009 Japan's Diet passed a resolution alluding to the Northern Territories as an integral part of Japan. The resolution changed nothing in Japan's long-standing position on the South Kurils, but it offered an excuse for so-called "patriotic forces" in Russia to raise another round of fuss on the issue. Some of these "patriots" have even claimed that Japan may use military force to regain the island under some circumstances. Such paranoia might be the result of two influences — a general mood (Russia is surrounded by enemies) and a lack of knowledge about Japan...
"From time to time, Japan thinks that it can use Russia's weakness to resolve the territorial dispute on Japan's terms. Japan did not understand why, in April 1991 and after August 1991, Gorbachev could not move on the issue without agreement with Yeltsin. Japan also did not understand Russia's attitude later. For example, there were public intimations in 2008 that "Russia was facing economic difficulties concurrently with its territorial dispute with Georgia, and that it was being driven into a corner by its European neighbors." 17 Japan's surmise that Russia would therefore soften its position on the territorial issue had no justification at all..." https://books.google.com/books?id=sAD9cFaS2pQC&pg=PT198
It is implausible that Japan will give up its position on the Northern Territories. But it is even more implausible that it will or ever would use force to regain them.
Barry Bull
Donor
Because most people have no idea what " ORBAT/ OOB", "KM", "RN" means. They may have heard about sealion from popular media or read some popular history article and think "Cool! Never knoe that. The Germans look awesome!"
Then they find AH.com and want to about this "fabulous" idea that how can the awesome Germans land in UK.
One thing to recognize is that the standard of discussion here is much higher than mosy netizen get used to.
Several people have mentioned the pacifism of Japans citizens. I only lived there two years & had only casual contact. I did leave in 1985 with the distinct impression of the broad and deep anti militarism of the modern Japanese. The Self Defense Ground Forces officers I meet & worked with were highly professional, and as pacifistic as the rest of the population. I cannot recall any evidence of some sort of revanchist, imperialist, facisist, or other political motivation for invading anything. I can imagine there were a few with this motivation, but I never met them.
A look at the internal political discussion over the provision of a JSDF medical unit to Op DESERT DHIELD/STORM & to other humanitarian operations in the 1990s is worth a look for judging the possibility here.
A look at the internal political discussion over the provision of a JSDF medical unit to Op DESERT DHIELD/STORM & to other humanitarian operations in the 1990s is worth a look for judging the possibility here.
Last edited:
The Militant Doberman
Banned
What amphibious landing forces does Japan have in the early 1990s to carry out this hypothetical operation?