SAVORYapple said:
Say the Japanese, with their confidence bolstered by their new guided weapons, doesn't launch a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, instead waiting for the USN to rush across the pacific into the arms of their glide bombs and torpedos?
No chance. The reasons for the attack have as much to do with internal politics as anything, & the main objective was to prevent the Pacific Fleet from interfering. If anything, glide bombs make an attack on the harbor, & its facilities, more effective.
SAVORYapple said:
What would a negotiated peace look like? Japanese pay reparations for the Phillipines and all U.S. islands in the Pacific?
Is this realistic given the prior POD?
Dubious, given it starts at Pearl. If it doesn't...
BlondieBC said:
The USN does not launch for months, so it will be a "phony war for capital ships". Likely they are used on PoW and Repulse along with regular torpedoes. If USA does send capital ships towards Marshal Island, they will be used.
If the U.S. sends BBs to the Marshalls alone, Kimmel is an idiot.

He wouldn't: he'd lead with CVs. Nor is he likely to attack the Marshalls directly, having lost
any ships to IJN glide bombs.
BlondieBC said:
The USN will likely lose a carrier or two while probing around the Marshals. So say by April 1942, we will get a crash counter measure program.
Yes: it's called combat air patrol. Very shortly, any inbound raid will be intercepted as far out as possible. Faster, & faster-climbing, fighters will be pushed for: solving the F4U's problems will be given much higher priority, & shortly, the F4U will enter service aboard USN CVs. Now the "superior" Zekes are in big trouble...
BlondieBC said:
By April or so, the USA will have scrapped up enough fuel and a couple divisions to be able to do something. The will know the airbase near the Marshal Islands are tough to crack. The political pressure to attack will be immense.
Why do you presume Kimmel attacks the main Japanese base in the Pacific?
BlondieBC said:
My guess is this battle will be a disaster for the USA. First because of the guided weapons, second because of the use of Battleship first doctrine, third we likely lose a carrier or two probing.
Why do you presume the U.S. won't adjust tactics to the changed circumstances?

Even if the F4Us haven't appeared yet.
BlondieBC said:
BB heavy attack on Marshals followed by planned amphib assault.
Improbable, since the Battle Line is too slow to operate in company with carriers...
BlondieBC said:
Unlike Pearl where most of the sailors live, if we lose 5+ capital ships at sea, it can easily be 10K dead of navy personnel.
Or 20,000.
BlondieBC said:
Enterprise raiding Marshals Islands. Enterprise will just be sunk.
Just like that, the magic glide bomb makes Japanese bases immune?

The Japanese still have to scramble aircraft &
find Enterprise...
BlondieBC said:
Coral Sea. Add some high altitude attack planes with say 50% hit rate if not engaging fighters
That's a fairly amazing hit rate.
BlondieBC said:
Midway after this Coral Sea. Japan could still easily lose 3 CV, but USN probably loses 2 CV. More accurate weapons, with a lot more hits than OTL, I doubt the Hornet puts out the fire.
This presumes Nagumo's strike birds find all 3 of Fletcher's CVs, which they didn't OTL.

It also assumes they didn't attack a single carrier twice, which they also did OTL.
It also doesn't account for the size of the weapon: does the guidance package mean it has to be smaller, so less destructive? Nor have you explained why the U.S. has made no technical changes to its defensive measures, from air cover to AA to jamming to "barrage balloon" or false targets. Nor have you explained why the U.S. hasn't accelerated programs to develop her own guided bomb programs, like Felix, GB-4, & GB-8.
BlondieBC said:
They were obsolete in 1918, it's just nobody realized it until 1941.

Guided bombs don't change that.
BlondieBC said:
Much less than you make out.
BlondieBC said:
many more B-17 in Australia and Hawaii. Enough to do bomb box that carrier can't escape
Fat chance. B-17s bombing from high altitude are no solution. More B-25s & B-26s, maybe, with better skip-bombing & more nose-mounted guns, yes.
BlondieBC said:
For what, exactly?

BlondieBC said:
Allowing they're the OTL P-39s, P-40s, & F4Fs, what is this accomplishing?

If they're F4Us & P-38s (or P-47s), where are they coming from?

Increased production needs longer lead time; a new production line for F4Us or P-38s (preferably both) will take at least a year to show results. Nor are P-47s going to arrive any sooner. Nor F6Fs, if they even happen at all.
BlondieBC said:
It takes longer to drive Germans out of North Africa
Somewhat, perhaps. It may mean DAK isn't crushed, but left to wither on the vine, which would be a good thing for future operations in ETO.
BlondieBC said:
Italy stays in war until near end.
Why?


The WAllies likely still invade Sicily & bring down Musolini's government. They may not actually invade the mainland,


which is good for the WAllies & the early invasion of Normandy.
BlondieBC said:
Nuclear weapons used on Berlin.
Not necessarily by any means.
BlondieBC said:
it does mean surface ships can't operate without air cover
And they could do that when after December 1941?

BlondieBC said:
It means we need to concentrate forces, working from cover of landbased fighters helps a lot.
Why?

BlondieBC said:
With SW Pacific having a lot more P-47s
And the "Germany First" promise goes out the window when? And why?

BlondieBC said:
Central Pacific can work, but with heavier losses. It will be more like the kamikaze days, but starting in the Marshals.
I'm finding that a bit improbable. Intercepting the carrier aircraft before they launch means
no attack, which wasn't true with
kamikaze.
I'm also not clear how this helps Japan deal with the biggest threat to her continuing success, the sub attacks on her SLOCs.
So here's another one for you: the U.S. adapts semi-active homing to a simple winged drone, like the Ryan target drone, & sends them out on PT boats & submarines...
BlondieBC said:
SW Pacific has somewhat worse supply.
Why?


How many of these bombs do you suppose Japan can build? More to the point, Japan wasn't really good at attacking merchant ships in the first place.
BlondieBC said:
Airbase network for Japan finished in Solomon Islands.
This appears likely. Does Kimmel arrange the Makin Raid? Or does he leave Tarawa essentially undefended when he counterattacks there, instead of at Guadalcanal, in around November 1942?
BlondieBC said:
We may even fail on amphib assault on some location. Driven back into sea fail.
Not going to happen. The U.S. won't go without being able to insure success. The Marines will insist on it. Kimmel probably will, too.
BlondieBC said:
We are likely a full year behind OTL.
Why?


It there's more force going to SWPA, & Japan's perimeter is even more over-extended than OTL, & consequently less into Central Pacific, why does Kimmel do worse?
More important, if Japan is trying to supply island bases even further out, she's burning even more oil & tying up even more shipping, neither good for her economy. More than that, this offers even more opportunities for Sub Force...

If, indeed, USN CVs are at greater risk, it's more than possible all PTO boats are pulled back to Pearl, which is bad for Japan:


fewer dry patrols, better exchange of information, faster upgrades to equipment like radar, & prospects for earlier cure to the Mk14/Mk6 problems.

More than that, it frees up the most lucrative patrol area, the Luzon/Formosa Strait, which is also bad for Japan.


(It was off-limits OTL due to risk of fratricide.)
BlondieBC said:
Is nuclear weapons + Manchuria alone enough to drive Japan from war if conventional bombing campaign is just getting started.
From a Tarawa op in Nov '42, Saipan falls around August '43, maybe a bit later. (By now, the U.S. will have countermeasures to guided bombs, & lots of F4Us in CV service.) Likely Peleiliu is bypassed.

Likely MacArthur isn't near the P.I. anywhere like the OTL schedule, so they're bypassed, too.

So capture of Iwo Jima & Okinawa are much, much easier than OTL.
BlondieBC said:
Would Truman really order invasion of Japan
He wouldn't have to. Japan would have surrendered before he became President.
BlondieBC said:
Things like Churchill's or Monty's fighting spirit being weaken can't be ruled out.
You really, really don't know Winston at all, do you?
BlondieBC said:
IJN makes March 1942 attack into Indian Ocean and achieves decisive victory over significant number of RN capital ships, it just might derail the entire Italian campaign
What?




Show me the connection.

BlondieBC said:
Yes, attacking a BB with one plane has a good chance of failure. Attacking with multiple planes has a good chance of success. You seem to be thinking of one bomber attacking a ship, not 12+.
You've now ignored the fact attacking whatever comes in sight is a) more usual & b) more likely. You've also reduced Allied losses, since, while the number of hits on any given ship may go up, the total number of ships hit is likely to go
down.
BlondieBC said:
What this weapon gives you is a higher hit rate and lower vulnerability.
Don't be so sure. A dive bomber can avoid interceptors before releasing. A bomb-steering aircraft cannot avoid interceptors & still attack.
BlondieBC said:
After the USA gets enough carriers, and enough high performance fighters and enough AA, this weapon will work poorly.
Which will be a great deal sooner than you presume...
BlondieBC said:
Fighters cover now has to be split 3 ways not 2.
Why?

If they intercept further out, as would be desirable, they're not "split" at all.
BlondieBC said:
The weapon is more accurate.
If you can actually guide it, which an aircraft being shot at
can't.
BlondieBC said:
radio control which has both benefits and disadvantages.
Yeah, it makes the situation even worse for the bombers & better for the defender.
Gannt the chartist said:
Before the new Wunderwaffee conquers the world a few problems.


Well said.
Gannt the chartist said:
Third time its a B17 launching a TV guided one.
Pretty much...

Or infrared. Or SAR...
Gannt the chartist said:
LOL. Seriously?