We have yet to see how CCA's timeline will play out. So, I feel that it's best to wait and see.
On the speculatory note, It is to my opinion that this will depend on the state of the Japanese Navy (Imperial, People's or Republican), the state of Japan itself and the sides that Japan will take in the inevitable global conflict.
A sideshow perhaps? Overshadowed by the Chinese invasion of Japan? Operation Haishi??!!
Again OKH_1946 give the proper answer, An Axis China(in any kind of this one) NOT always means an Allied Japan(in fact Exist both Allies and Commintern, thanks HOI), that is because Japan is Always the Wild Card of Asia(the other states are colonies or linked to the Allies, the only exception is China), and again that depend of the Political Situation of Japan(and that depend of the Militaries success in China), that are my main conjecture(for a defeated japan= Axis China):
3.1. a more Radical and militaristic Japan(and maybe being Neutral or take advantage of the situation but Cooperate with China, i think will be Impossible)
3.2. A more realpolitk Japan(An Axis Japan to win both Siberia and the South Pacific or Neutral waiting to join the winner side and exploit the advantage)
3.3 That will make a Democratic Revolution(with the Military fail, that will stregth the democratic movements) and a democratic japan means automaticaly a Indenpend Korean(maybe liberate by China or the Japanese) and a Allied Japan or a Neutral one.
3.4. maybe the Revolution will be a comunist one(a little ASBish but possible because japan have a more industiral and social history) and that means a Comintern Japan and a very problematic one(that deppens of the butterflies).
In fact the mainly is more a Backstabber Japan waiting to Capitulaze the Situation, and being in te British Situation in Asia(having a Extremly powerful Navy= their shield to the Home Islands), in fact that deppend again of Japan propper rather the external world