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With some retreaded Japanese discussion on the go today, I thought I'd bring up a topic I haven't seen here before: what might Japan's arc have been if it hadn't taken land in French Indochina because Germany failed to defeat France?

Supposing the Germans continue to tie up western forces, albeit less so with the French fleet able to take up some of the burden, what might things look like for Japan?

Without the provocation of French Indochina, what new timeline are we looking at for the embargo? How much tougher might it be for Japan to go after the Dutch, and how much might the French and British deploy in the theatre while engaged in a continental war?
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