Japanese Fortunes After a German Failure in 1940

With some retreaded Japanese discussion on the go today, I thought I'd bring up a topic I haven't seen here before: what might Japan's arc have been if it hadn't taken land in French Indochina because Germany failed to defeat France?

Supposing the Germans continue to tie up western forces, albeit less so with the French fleet able to take up some of the burden, what might things look like for Japan?

Without the provocation of French Indochina, what new timeline are we looking at for the embargo? How much tougher might it be for Japan to go after the Dutch, and how much might the French and British deploy in the theatre while engaged in a continental war?
 
Japan will likely still attack, the scenario implies the west is still tied up by late 1941/ early 1942 so it's likely many will still see this as preferable to pulling out of China.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Wasn't what they did in China enough for an embargo?

If you ask me, yes. If you ask the US Congress...who knows? I think the invasion of Indochina was a good moment to push the embargo through, I don't know if and what other event could have sparked it.
 
The difference is the embargo would probably have to be pushed through by the USA alone if FIC wasnt invaded. Britain and France have much more pressing concerns than China, which seemed to hold a particular fascination for the USA.
Surem the US could have leant on Britain, France and the Netherlands more, but will they? After all, nothings really changed, why use up all the political capital??
 
The US unilaterally imposed a steel embargo in 1940, over Japanese actions in China.
However when the US proposed the Oil Embargo, over Indochina, The British, Free French & Free Dutch Hesitated, and then went along due to considerations over American Lend Lease.

ITTL With No Japanese in Indochina, and probably no Lend Lease, I doubt if the Allis would join the US in the Oil Embargo, as it would seem to be a continuation of the Unilateral Steel Embargo.

With no need to move south, Japanese-Allies relations remain Tense but Peaceful. Japan continues in China. How successful they are depends.

?I wonder how day to day life was for the ordinary people in Japanese controlled areas?
Life is lived locally. This determines how much resistance the Japanese would encounter, and how Pacified the areas where.
If the Japanese had imposed Order, and all that was different now was the nationality of the Taxman. Then the Japanese could concentrate on expansion till they control all of China.

OTOH if the areas remain tense with daily problems & disagreements, to continue to keep the areas upset, The Japanese will have to use most of their troops as Garrisons.
With most of their resources going to hold what they have, the Japanese will never have the recourses needed to conquer the rest.
Eventually some thing will change back in Japan and Japan will be forced out of China.
 
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