Japanese Expansionism With a Stronger China

Let's just say that somehow, China manages to hold it together better during the Warlord Era and the Nationalists manage to get a better grip on the country as a whole. As a result, the bean counters and other analytic types in the Japanese military determines that Japan is unable to sustainably pursue a war with China.

Since the Japanese are not known for being entirely level headed, they might just invade anyway. Or they agree with the bean counters and determine that invading China is bad mojo and shouldn't happen.

What happens if that's the case?
 

Jeremy Lin

Banned
Japanese policy in this time period was the gradual encorporation of China into their Empire, not to go all out in one fell swoop. A better question is how would the political makeup in China have been if CKS had been able to defeat Mao once and for all? CKS's policy had always been one of bidding his time for China's economy to turn around and it's war industry to ramp up before confronting Japan. If it populists and Nationists within his own party weren't so fervent to war with Japan in 1936, CKS could have waited until 1939 to declare war, having the advantage of training thousands more generals and NCO's in the Koumintang Academy and heavy armory and cannons that were soarly lacking in the opening months of the war.
 

Jeremy Lin

Banned
I contend that it was not Japanese intention to launch the invasion if not for CKS's agreement to a United Front. IJE probably would have sat back as CKS and Mao bloodied each other endlessly while gobbled up China piecemeal. In 1936 even CKS's closest advisers but especially Yu Dir were fed up with the concessions given but CKS's plan was always to build up China internally and economically before facing a death struggle with Japan. If he had been able to do so in 1939 China would likely have won the war sooner and without American intervention.
 
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