Japanese Expansion with weak/non-existent U.S.A.?

whitecrow

Banned
OK, here is a thought:

Let’s assume a POD (or PODs) result in a lack of U.S. hegemony in North America. What POD (or PODs)? It’s up to you: a much, much worst Civil War resulting in U.S. breaking apart into several nations, British imposing harsher peace terms after the War of 1812, whatever else you can think off, etc. But the result is that area of OTL continental U.S.A. circa 1900 is broken up into or controlled by several nations.

Now let is also assume that Japan is still opened up around roughly the same time period and modernizes as per OTL.

The question now is how would the Japanese Empire’s expansion into the Pacific and Asia go now that they don’t have to compete with U.S.A. interests? Could Japan even establish colonies/protectorates in North America if the North American nations are suitably weak?


(Yes, I realize that even without having U.S. to contend with, Japan would still have to compete with European interests)
 
Depends on what the redrawn map of North America looks like. You, might, for example, depending on the butterflies end up with a Confederate South, a rump United States and a wanked Canada.
 
Thing is US intervention is a very big cause of the Meji restoration so without a powerful USA Japan may not form an expantionist Empire like OTL and may not pull a Meji
 

whitecrow

Banned
Thing is US intervention is a very big cause of the Meji restoration so without a powerful USA Japan may not form an expantionist Empire like OTL and may not pull a Meji

IIRC other nations, like U.K. and France, wanted to open up Japan too. Let's assume that instead of Cap. Perry a captain working for some European power opens up Japan and a Meji Restoration still occurs.
 
IIRC other nations, like U.K. and France, wanted to open up Japan too. Let's assume that instead of Cap. Perry a captain working for some European power opens up Japan and a Meji Restoration still occurs.
Okay, very likely but not certain got it

No North American colonies, they do not have the Infrastructure for that and even a weakened North America would be too much for Japan to chew on (assuming on the scale of South America)
 
OK, here is a thought:

Let’s assume a POD (or PODs) result in a lack of U.S. hegemony in North America. What POD (or PODs)? It’s up to you: a much, much worst Civil War resulting in U.S. breaking apart into several nations, British imposing harsher peace terms after the War of 1812, whatever else you can think off, etc. But the result is that area of OTL continental U.S.A. circa 1900 is broken up into or controlled by several nations.

Now let is also assume that Japan is still opened up around roughly the same time period and modernizes as per OTL.

The question now is how would the Japanese Empire’s expansion into the Pacific and Asia go now that they don’t have to compete with U.S.A. interests? Could Japan even establish colonies/protectorates in North America if the North American nations are suitably weak?


(Yes, I realize that even without having U.S. to contend with, Japan would still have to compete with European interests)

It still has to contend with European nations and is punching way, way above its weight. It could definitely snap up some worthless Pacific islands but to get the raw materials and resources it needs for serious expansion it will have to turn to mainland Asia and that's a fight it cannot win. Japan loses the moment it declares war on China- it cannot win a fight in the long run.
 
Japan could certainly seize the Dutch East Indies and/or the Philippines. From there, picking off little concessions from China and snapping up Korea would be possible. I assume that Japan could still defeat Russia in a war and extend her influence in Manchuria. Already that's quite the mighty Japanese power.

From there, buddy up with Britain if possible {and why not, the British weren't expanding much in Asia by this point IIRC plus they are the ONLY real naval power in the region with no U.S}, wait for some war to break out in Europe and ally with the strong naval power {Britain}, and nab some more colonies and ports from the enemies who can't do a damn thing about it {like Japan did in WWI}.

After that, just sit pretty, industrialize industrialize industrialize, adopt a neutral but friendly stance abroad, make sure your navy remains #1 or at least #2 in the Pacific, but above all make sure you don't piss anyone off {who can do something about it}.

I call a Japanese Empire with Korea + Taiwan + The Philippines + the DEI + Chinese ports + misc stuff a winning empire indeed.

Of course, seizing the DEI might piss off the British but... hey, you can still be a Great Power without being fully self sufficient. Britain was rather dependent on the U.S for grain IIRC.
 
I don't think the Japanese could do very much, after all the Meiji restoration was mainly aimed at Internal change and democratization. Hawaii, might join the Japanese. But war with even Spain might be too much. After all a weaker America would necessarily mean a stronger Mexico. American occupation of the Phillipines was very difficult, imagine that for a power that was much less developed than the US.
 
I don't think the Japanese could do very much, after all the Meiji restoration was mainly aimed at Internal change and democratization. Hawaii, might join the Japanese. But war with even Spain might be too much. After all a weaker America would necessarily mean a stronger Mexico. American occupation of the Phillipines was very difficult, imagine that for a power that was much less developed than the US.

...

Very fair point. I tend to forgot about that little insurgency. :p
 
Okay, very likely but not certain got it

No North American colonies, they do not have the Infrastructure for that and even a weakened North America would be too much for Japan to chew on (assuming on the scale of South America)

I wouldn't rule out some sort of Japanese presence in Alaska.
Assuming Russo-Japanese war happens similarly to OTL, resulting in the destruction of Russia's Pacific Fleet, Russia would have extreme difficulty holding onto Alaska anyway, assuming Alaska's still Russian in 1905.
Or Alaska still being Russian may mean Russia has a larger Pacific Fleet, and defeats Japan in the war.
 
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