So first of all, hello everyone. This is my first post after making my account over half a year ago and lurking for many years before that. Good to be here.
Now, I've been wondering about the full potential for Japanese expansion if they have a free (or freer) hand in the Pacific. The scenario I have outlined is partly inspired by The Falcon Cannot Hear, it is as follows:
The US descends into a devastating civil war in the 30s (let's assume this comes about like in Falcon; FDR assassinated, etc.), with most of its Navy also participating in the war and tied up in the Carribean/Atlantic, and its Pacific garrisons being redeployed to the mainland. This war disrupts the flow of oil to Japan, who need it for their war in China. Events in Europe are mostly the same, though the democracies more connected with US trade are having a harder time in the Depression. Hitler still makes roughly the same moves he made IOTL, so the West is wary of increasing tension with the Japanese and continue to sell them oil increasingly cheaply, afraid that Japan might swoop in and take their colonies. Meantime, (as in Falcon) Japan invades and occupies American holdings in the Pacific - Philippines, Guam, Wake, Midway, Hawaii (and anywhere else I may have forgotten) with little trouble, as they are lightly defended. Let's say that any US Navy elements not tied up in the war at home are at Pearl Harbor and get annihilated or captured.
Once the war in Europe begins, the Japanese come to the very conclusion the Europeans feared - "hey, we're paying for oil when we could just TAKE it". They invade European colonial holdings, only they have a better starting position from the Philippines. This is what I'm curious about - how successful would Japan be in this alt-Pacific War? They obviously take everything they took IOTL, but I wonder how much further they can go in these regions:
1. New Guinea. Can they take Port Moresby? And if it falls, does that wrap up the whole island?
2. Timor. OTL resistance there continued until '43 I think. Does it end quicker ITTL?
3. New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa. Does Operation FS go ahead and if yes, how successful is it? If go for it, I presume they also take the Solomon Islands too, as they are in the way.
4. Indian Ocean/India. How different is the Indian Ocean raid and how far into India can they get?
5. Aleutians/Alaska. As I understand it, occupying Attu and Kiska OTL was just a feint to distract from Midway. Would they expand there and possibly further into Alaska if there was no need to distract anyone, but also little forces to resist them if they do?
6. Australia and New Zealand. What exactly would Japan do with these two in this scenario? Will they try to invade?
7: Just how far can Japan get in the Pacific while uncontested on the seas? Can they get all the way to, say, Ducie Island at the very edge of Polynesia? Would they want to?
Feel free to ask for any clarifications.
Now, I've been wondering about the full potential for Japanese expansion if they have a free (or freer) hand in the Pacific. The scenario I have outlined is partly inspired by The Falcon Cannot Hear, it is as follows:
The US descends into a devastating civil war in the 30s (let's assume this comes about like in Falcon; FDR assassinated, etc.), with most of its Navy also participating in the war and tied up in the Carribean/Atlantic, and its Pacific garrisons being redeployed to the mainland. This war disrupts the flow of oil to Japan, who need it for their war in China. Events in Europe are mostly the same, though the democracies more connected with US trade are having a harder time in the Depression. Hitler still makes roughly the same moves he made IOTL, so the West is wary of increasing tension with the Japanese and continue to sell them oil increasingly cheaply, afraid that Japan might swoop in and take their colonies. Meantime, (as in Falcon) Japan invades and occupies American holdings in the Pacific - Philippines, Guam, Wake, Midway, Hawaii (and anywhere else I may have forgotten) with little trouble, as they are lightly defended. Let's say that any US Navy elements not tied up in the war at home are at Pearl Harbor and get annihilated or captured.
Once the war in Europe begins, the Japanese come to the very conclusion the Europeans feared - "hey, we're paying for oil when we could just TAKE it". They invade European colonial holdings, only they have a better starting position from the Philippines. This is what I'm curious about - how successful would Japan be in this alt-Pacific War? They obviously take everything they took IOTL, but I wonder how much further they can go in these regions:
1. New Guinea. Can they take Port Moresby? And if it falls, does that wrap up the whole island?
2. Timor. OTL resistance there continued until '43 I think. Does it end quicker ITTL?
3. New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa. Does Operation FS go ahead and if yes, how successful is it? If go for it, I presume they also take the Solomon Islands too, as they are in the way.
4. Indian Ocean/India. How different is the Indian Ocean raid and how far into India can they get?
5. Aleutians/Alaska. As I understand it, occupying Attu and Kiska OTL was just a feint to distract from Midway. Would they expand there and possibly further into Alaska if there was no need to distract anyone, but also little forces to resist them if they do?
6. Australia and New Zealand. What exactly would Japan do with these two in this scenario? Will they try to invade?
7: Just how far can Japan get in the Pacific while uncontested on the seas? Can they get all the way to, say, Ducie Island at the very edge of Polynesia? Would they want to?
Feel free to ask for any clarifications.
