Japanese expansion during American civil war

[Ryker of Terra]

Would the rest of the world not join in at least supplying each side..... it's not 1860 transport is cheap unless USN is dominant and if it is then that side will win quickly, and we get a short war anyway?

Would you not get huge butterflies as GB & Canada (and rest of Europe) might sell do early rearmament on the profits from 30s US civil war arms sales......

Absolutely, people wouldn't just sit this one out, America is too important. I was just trying to focus more on Japan and handwaved the civil war away

Of the US is in a new civil east then not only are they not checking Japan in the Pacific, they’re not lend-leasing to the UK either. The British Empire is still going to put up as much of a fight as they can and Japan is still going to face the same logistical issues they did before, but it will go much better for Japan regardless.

1-2. I can’t comment on how much the US aided these efforts as Australia is still going to fight tooth and nail to defend themselves.

3. They would go for it and have more success than OTL. Holding them would be annoying so there would probably be just isolated garrisons.

4. Logistics doomed this endeavor and I don’t see that changing.

5. Alaska is a distraction and not really of any importance. They may not be messed with unless Japan wraps up elsewhere and decides everywhere the Pacific touches is theirs.

6. Raids and supply interdiction would be the main strategy. The main centers of both countries are just too far away. The most they would invade would be Darwin, maybe Cairns and Townsville if they are overly ambitious.

7. Ducie Island would be a waste of resources. They would be securing their gains and launching raids on places they can’t invade directly. The ultimate goal would be to force the Allies to the negotiating table from a position of strength.

Interesting, you think that Japan would definitively do better only in FS. Makes sense to me, though I would think that with the Philippines in the bag, they would have more manpower which would tip the scales in Timor/New Guinea as well.

Also, thanks for commenting on my first thread everyone!

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Clark was an AFC isolationist.

A 3rd party challenge is far more likely to come from the left, not the conservative democrats.

Well, the IJA could have invaded the Southern Resource Zone to cut the Burma Road in 1938,1939,1940. Yet they didn't until 1941...

Yes and? He's still a potential anybody but Long candidate and less likely to result in civil unrest

Why? Long is pretty near the left end of the Democrats and the Dixiecrats were willing to do third party challenges in 48 with a less controversial candidate

Before mid 1940 supplies came from French Indochina, no need for Burma. Shortly after France fell the Japanese invaded Indochina and the Burma road was needed, diplomatic pressure closed it for three months, them after it reopened the oil embargo was a thing. It is still something the IJA wants to do, just not enough for what with a strong Britain, a weak Britain...

 

[rainsfall]

Yes and? He's still a potential anybody but Long candidate and less likely to result in civil unrest

A Conservative Democratic victory in 1932 leaves the door open for a potential 1936 Long Progressive Farmer-Labor Party ticket.

Why? Long is pretty near the left end of the Democrats and the Dixiecrats were willing to do third party challenges in 48 with a less controversial candidate

Pretty difficult to do when Long is a Southern Democrat himself.

Before mid 1940 supplies came from French Indochina, no need for Burma. Shortly after France fell the Japanese invaded Indochina and the Burma road was needed, diplomatic pressure closed it for three months, them after it reopened the oil embargo was a thing. It is still something the IJA wants to do, just not enough for what with a strong Britain, a weak Britain...

Without the oil embargo after the invasion of French Indochina, it's unlikely that the IJA would have been so desperate and afraid of American naval power in the Pacific that they would have as far as attacking US possessions without cause...

 

[Ryker of Terra]

@BiteNibbleChomp any ideas? I remember reading your Operation FS TL and you seemed to have done your research about the Pacific very well. Thinking you'd be better informed than most.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

A Conservative Democratic victory in 1932 leaves the door open for a potential 1936 Long Progressive Farmer-Labor Party ticket.

Pretty difficult to do when Long is a Southern Democrat himself.

Without the oil embargo after the invasion of French Indochina, it's unlikely that the IJA would have been so desperate and afraid of American naval power in the Pacific that they would have as far as attacking US possessions without cause...

Yeah and then you get a Republican victory in 1936

But he's not a conservative Southern Democrat

But this whole exchange was about why Japan would attack British Burma, not the US

 

[rainsfall]

Yeah and then you get a Republican victory in 1936

Borah is the most likely candidate in the absence of FDR.

But he's not a conservative Southern Democrat

In the event of a PFL 3rd-party candidacy, it is unlikely to me that Long would have been able to win any state in the Deep South other than Louisiana.

But this whole exchange was about why Japan would attack British Burma, not the US

A President Borah in 1941 would not have declared war over a Japanese invasion of British Burma.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Borah is the most likely candidate in the absence of FDR.

In the event of a PFL 3rd-party candidacy, it is unlikely to me that Long would have been able to win any state in the Deep South other than Louisiana.

A President Borah in 1941 would not have declared war over a Japanese invasion of British Burma.

Yes and so what/ he's not going to generate a civil war if he is elected so you aren't disagreeing with my point any more

Which doesn't disprove my point. Long is closer to the PFL than to most Southern Democrats politically, ergo that makes a third party run by them in case of a Long nomination more likely

Which wasn't what this discussion was about. Though even he would likely be forced to embark on a military buildup to protect American territory in the Pacific after such blatant aggression, assuming he was still alive as he died in 1940 OTL and the Presidency has a way of aging people. Remember the 1940 Two Ocean Navy Act, which scared the bejeebers out of the IJN, passed the House of Representatives UNAMIMOUSLY, even with an arch isolationist government the US will have something similar. Once something like that happens the IJN is going to want to per their doctrine clear their supply lines to SEA by taking out the Philippines before the US can base a monster fleet there, which means a preemptive strike on and war with the US

 

[rainsfall]

Yes and so what/ he's not going to generate a civil war if he is elected so you aren't disagreeing with my point any more

The Falcon Cannot Hear

The Falcon Cannot Hear: The Second American Civil War 1937-1944 is an alternate history timeline written by Ephraim Ben Raphael which tells the story of a second American civil war which starts in 1937. In February 1933, the new President-elect …

tvtropes.org

Which doesn't disprove my point. Long is closer to the PFL than to most Southern Democrats politically, ergo that makes a third party run by them in case of a Long nomination more likely

Truman in 1948 and Kennedy in 1960 won in the face of Dixiecratic opposition.

Which wasn't what this discussion was about. Though even he would likely be forced to embark on a military buildup to protect American territory in the Pacific after such blatant aggression, assuming he was still alive as he died in 1940 OTL and the Presidency has a way of aging people. Remember the 1940 Two Ocean Navy Act, which scared the bejeebers out of the IJN, passed the House of Representatives UNAMIMOUSLY, even with an arch isolationist government the US will have something similar. Once something like that happens the IJN is going to want to per their doctrine clear their supply lines to SEA by taking out the Philippines before the US can base a monster fleet there, which means a preemptive strike on and war with the US

Borah does not extend Cash or Carry or even Lend Lease to Britain, making it very difficult to continue fighting on in Europe and even more impossible that they would re-open the Burma Road after 3 months, let alone impose an oil embargo without American support.

W/o the Burma Road, the steady stream of supplies to the KMT dries up, and Japan conquers Sichuan and install the Wang Jingwei regime throughout China, whilst Stalin is forced to turn his attentin to Barbarossa as per OTL.

There likely won't be a SRZ campaign with a Japanese victory in China.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

The Falcon Cannot Hear

The Falcon Cannot Hear: The Second American Civil War 1937-1944 is an alternate history timeline written by Ephraim Ben Raphael which tells the story of a second American civil war which starts in 1937. In February 1933, the new President-elect …

tvtropes.org

Truman in 1948 and Kennedy in 1960 won in the face of Dixiecratic opposition.

Borah does not extend Cash or Carry or even Lend Lease to Britain, making it very difficult to continue fighting on in Europe and even more impossible that they would re-open the Burma Road after 3 months, let alone impose an oil embargo without American support.

W/o the Burma Road, the steady stream of supplies to the KMT dries up, and Japan conquers Sichuan and install the Wang Jingwei regime throughout China, whilst Stalin is forced to turn his attentin to Barbarossa as per OTL.

There likely won't be a SRZ campaign with a Japanese victory in China.

An example of a TL does not necessarily mean that TL is plausible,

Yes and if Long is like them he can win with Dixiecratic opposition, but then he would be so moderate he's unlikely to cause a civil war

Britain's going to keep fighting in Europe because they have no choice, Hitler won't give them a peace deal they can accept. Why would they close the road permanently? It's in Britain's strategic interests for China to keep fighting against Japan as long as possible

Japanese victory in China makes an SRZ more likely as the IJA has covered itself in glory, so the IJN has to do something now, can't let the IJA get all the glory, and that something is the SRZ

 

[rainsfall]

An example of a TL does not necessarily mean that TL is plausible,

Yes and if Long is like them he can win with Dixiecratic opposition, but then he would be so moderate he's unlikely to cause a civil war

Being moderate would be OOC for the Kingfish.

Britain's going to keep fighting in Europe because they have no choice, Hitler won't give them a peace deal they can accept. Why would they close the road permanently? It's in Britain's strategic interests for China to keep fighting against Japan as long as possible

Britain's foreign currency reserves would have been out by early 1941 without Lend-Lease, which would have been catastrophic for such an import-dependent country.

Japanese victory in China makes an SRZ more likely as the IJA has covered itself in glory, so the IJN has to do something now, can't let the IJA get all the glory, and that something is the SRZ

The IJN did not invade SE Asia in 1933...

 

[vizzer]

Britain's foreign currency reserves would have been out by early 1941 without Lend-Lease, which would have been catastrophic for such an import-dependent country.

It was only dollar reserves that were running out as other countries would at least accept sterling. With a US civil war in progress there are probably not a lot of armaments for sale - in fact the various US factions may be trying to import from abroad 😋

 

[rainsfall]

It was only dollar reserves that were running out as other countries would at least accept sterling. With a US civil war in progress there are probably not a lot of armaments for sale - in fact the various US factions may be trying to import from abroad 😋

Since April, Britain had been fighting Germany on land, at sea, and in the air. The cost of these operations had nearly drained Britain’s reserves of foreign currency and gold. Without those funds, Britain could no longer purchase the vital American-made war supplies it had been buying since the war broke out in September 1939.

Source: JSTOR

 

[vizzer]

Source: JSTOR

But this is an alternate T L where the US has been/is in a civil war & unlikely to be selling weapons to anyone.

 

[rainsfall]

But this is an alternate T L where the US has been/is in a civil war & unlikely to be selling weapons to anyone.

So Britain simply goes bankrupt earlier?

 

[vizzer]

So Britain simply goes bankrupt earlier?

Not if they're not buying stuff from the US and need dollars or gold to pay for it.
If other countries take payment in Sterling they can just print money in a similar way to how the US can handle its debts in OTL.

 

[vizzer]

Absolutely, people wouldn't just sit this one out, America is too important. I was just trying to focus more on Japan and handwaved the civil war away


Interesting, you think that Japan would definitively do better only in FS. Makes sense to me, though I would think that with the Philippines in the bag, they would have more manpower which would tip the scales in Timor/New Guinea as well.

Also, thanks for commenting on my first thread everyone!

With a US civil war their forces in China are probably recalled to aid one side or the other & the Philippines may get earlier independence purely because those forces are also needed back in the States.
All of which means the Japanese have less to worry about for US interference which probably butterflies away any need for Pearl Harbor.

 

[rainsfall]

Not if they're not buying stuff from the US and need dollars or gold to pay for it.
If other countries take payment in Sterling they can just print money in a similar way to how the US can handle its debts in OTL.

But they still need to buy their "stuff" from somewhere with gold, and it is difficult to see either the Soviet Union or China substituting for the US.

Printing sterling would have been disastrous for the British economy: Britain couldn't loot occupied Europe to pay back its "Mefo bills".

 

[vizzer]

But they still need to buy their "stuff" from somewhere with gold, and it is difficult to see either the Soviet Union or China substituting for the US.

Printing sterling would have been disastrous for the British economy: Britain couldn't loot occupied Europe to pay back its "Mefo bills".

Although with the US in a civil war from the 30s they are, or at least the side with control of the USN, probably buying any weapons they can from overseas to boost there forces. In a twist it would be the US building up European armaments industries rather than the other way round.

 

[rainsfall]

Although with the US in a civil war from the 30s they are, or at least the side with control of the USN, probably buying any weapons they can from overseas to boost there forces. In a twist it would be the US building up European armaments industries rather than the other way round.

Selling armaments overseas when Britain is fighting for its life in 1940 is admittedly not the best approach.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Would you not get huge butterflies as GB & Canada (and rest of Europe) might sell and do early rearmament on the profits from 30s US civil war arms sales......

The Empire will rearm quickly to cover the loss of US forces in the Pacific. Australia, Canada and New Zealand can no longer sit back and let the big boys defend them. The same goes for the Dutch East Indies and French Indo China. With the US in a civil war the situation is completely changed and they have to react to it