Japanese Dynasty of China

The way I'm picturing it, the Japanese occupy most of the peninsula in the 1590s, consolidate their gains, build up their continental forces, and invade 50 years later when the Ming collapse under the pressure of rebellion and global cooling. Maybe the PoD is Oda Nobutada surviving the incident in Kyoto and assuming his father's place, so you have a real dynastic power emerge in Japan before Ieyasu.

I suppose it's possible for the Japanese to get pretty far assuming the traitor still opens the pass...

But when the Manchus sweep in, someone's screwed.
 
What are the prospects of Japan forming an alliance with the Jurchens/Manchus and/or Mongols, or at least hiring some of them as mercenaries? Launching a joint invasion during a period of political instability, the Japanese secure territory along the coast, their northern allies gain territory in the north, with Korea divided between them, and the rest of China is divided between different competing states. Over the years the Japanese are able to successfully play the various factions against each other and increase their strength and influence, ultimately uniting China under their banner and turning on their former allies in the north. Difficult, true, and certainly a bit of a Japanwank, but not necessarily impossible.
 
I suppose it's possible for the Japanese to get pretty far assuming the traitor still opens the pass...

But when the Manchus sweep in, someone's screwed.

The Qing conquest was heavily dependent on Han Bannerman and defectors from Liaoning; Japan conquering the region is probably going to take the wind out of their sails there. Also going to be harder for the Qing to recruit defectors from the Japanese, since their arguments usually stressed the Ming's disdain for warriors, which the Japanese don't have.

The Qing definitely do have the advantage of having a proper civil government along Chinese lines before the conquest, while the Japanese are better connected through ties of vassalage and use household/military styles of governance.
 
What are the prospects of Japan forming an alliance with the Jurchens/Manchus and/or Mongols, or at least hiring some of them as mercenaries? Launching a joint invasion during a period of political instability, the Japanese secure territory along the coast, their northern allies gain territory in the north, with Korea divided between them, and the rest of China is divided between different competing states. Over the years the Japanese are able to successfully play the various factions against each other and increase their strength and influence, ultimately uniting China under their banner and turning on their former allies in the north. Difficult, true, and certainly a bit of a Japanwank, but not necessarily impossible.

A 'bit' of a Japan wank?

No, I'd say that's ASB. They're not going to get in through the coast. It's going to have to be Liaodong.
 
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