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Imagine a scenario where japan defeated the americans in Midway and in Guadalcanal, still they got beaten later in some other ATL battles

So, now it is may 8, 1945, Germany already surrendered, but the japanese situation in the pacific is better than in real life, the americans are pushing them back, Saipan have been captured weeks ago, but still they didn't reached Phillipines yet and the ATL equivalent to the battle of the Gulf of Leyte didn't happened yet

In this hypotetical scenario, would japan be able to sign his so desired peace treaty with USA? Would the soviet union have invaded Manchuria earlier, or later than in OTL? And what about Korea?
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